Prediction of epidemic trends in COVID-19 with logistic model and machine learning technics.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Wang P
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7328553 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Gene expression profiles were generated from 199 primary breast cancer patients. Samples 1-176 were used in another study, GEO Series GSE22820, and form the training data set in this study. Sample numbers 200-222 form a validation set. This data is used to model a machine learning classifier for Estrogen Receptor Status. RNA was isolated from 199 primary breast cancer patients. A machine learning classifier was built to predict ER status using only three gene features.
2013-01-01 | E-GEOD-29210 | biostudies-arrayexpress
Project description:BackgroundTo develop a machine learning-based CT radiomics model is critical for the accurate diagnosis of the rapid spreading coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).MethodsIn this retrospective study, a total of 326 chest CT exams from 134 patients (63 confirmed COVID-19 patients and 71 non-COVID-19 patients) were collected from January 20 to February 8, 2020. A semi-automatic segmentation procedure was used to delineate the volume of interest (VOI), and radiomic features were extracted. The Support Vector Machine (SVM) model was built on the combination of 4 groups of features, including radiomic features, traditional radiological features, quantifying features, and clinical features. By repeating cross-validation procedure, the performance on the time-independent testing cohort was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity.ResultsFor the SVM model built on the combination of 4 groups of features (integrated model), the per-exam AUC was 0.925 (95% CI 0.856 to 0.994) for differentiating COVID-19 on the testing cohort, and the sensitivity and specificity were 0.816 (95% CI 0.651 to 0.917) and 0.923 (95% CI 0.621 to 0.996), respectively. As for the SVM models built on radiomic features, radiological features, quantifying features, and clinical features, individually, the AUC on the testing cohort reached 0.765, 0.818, 0.607, and 0.739, respectively, significantly lower than the integrated model, except for the radiomic model.ConclusionThe machine learning-based CT radiomics models may accurately classify COVID-19, helping clinicians and radiologists to identify COVID-19 positive cases.
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Project description:BackgroundDuring a pandemic, it is important for clinicians to stratify patients and decide who receives limited medical resources. Machine learning models have been proposed to accurately predict COVID-19 disease severity. Previous studies have typically tested only one machine learning algorithm and limited performance evaluation to area under the curve analysis. To obtain the best results possible, it may be important to test different machine learning algorithms to find the best prediction model.ObjectiveIn this study, we aimed to use automated machine learning (autoML) to train various machine learning algorithms. We selected the model that best predicted patients' chances of surviving a SARS-CoV-2 infection. In addition, we identified which variables (ie, vital signs, biomarkers, comorbidities, etc) were the most influential in generating an accurate model.MethodsData were retrospectively collected from all patients who tested positive for COVID-19 at our institution between March 1 and July 3, 2020. We collected 48 variables from each patient within 36 hours before or after the index time (ie, real-time polymerase chain reaction positivity). Patients were followed for 30 days or until death. Patients' data were used to build 20 machine learning models with various algorithms via autoML. The performance of machine learning models was measured by analyzing the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPCR). Subsequently, we established model interpretability via Shapley additive explanation and partial dependence plots to identify and rank variables that drove model predictions. Afterward, we conducted dimensionality reduction to extract the 10 most influential variables. AutoML models were retrained by only using these 10 variables, and the output models were evaluated against the model that used 48 variables.ResultsData from 4313 patients were used to develop the models. The best model that was generated by using autoML and 48 variables was the stacked ensemble model (AUPRC=0.807). The two best independent models were the gradient boost machine and extreme gradient boost models, which had an AUPRC of 0.803 and 0.793, respectively. The deep learning model (AUPRC=0.73) was substantially inferior to the other models. The 10 most influential variables for generating high-performing models were systolic and diastolic blood pressure, age, pulse oximetry level, blood urea nitrogen level, lactate dehydrogenase level, D-dimer level, troponin level, respiratory rate, and Charlson comorbidity score. After the autoML models were retrained with these 10 variables, the stacked ensemble model still had the best performance (AUPRC=0.791).ConclusionsWe used autoML to develop high-performing models that predicted the survival of patients with COVID-19. In addition, we identified important variables that correlated with mortality. This is proof of concept that autoML is an efficient, effective, and informative method for generating machine learning-based clinical decision support tools.
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Project description:BackgroundThe rapid spread of COVID-19 means that government and health services providers have little time to plan and design effective response policies. It is therefore important to quickly provide accurate predictions of how vulnerable geographic regions such as counties are to the spread of this virus.ObjectiveThe aim of this study is to develop county-level prediction around near future disease movement for COVID-19 occurrences using publicly available data.MethodsWe estimated county-level COVID-19 occurrences for the period March 14 to 31, 2020, based on data fused from multiple publicly available sources inclusive of health statistics, demographics, and geographical features. We developed a three-stage model using XGBoost, a machine learning algorithm, to quantify the probability of COVID-19 occurrence and estimate the number of potential occurrences for unaffected counties. Finally, these results were combined to predict the county-level risk. This risk was then used as an estimated after-five-day-vulnerability of the county.ResultsThe model predictions showed a sensitivity over 71% and specificity over 94% for models built using data from March 14 to 31, 2020. We found that population, population density, percentage of people aged >70 years, and prevalence of comorbidities play an important role in predicting COVID-19 occurrences. We observed a positive association at the county level between urbanicity and vulnerability to COVID-19.ConclusionsThe developed model can be used for identification of vulnerable counties and potential data discrepancies. Limited testing facilities and delayed results introduce significant variation in reported cases, which produces a bias in the model.
| S-EPMC7490002 | biostudies-literature