Excess Deaths From COVID-19 and Other Causes, March-April 2020.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Woolf SH
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7330820 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC8019132 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Accurate and timely tracking of COVID-19 deaths is essential to a well-functioning public health surveillance system. The extent to which official COVID-19 death tallies have captured the true toll of the pandemic in the United States is unknown. In the current study, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate monthly excess mortality in each county over the first two years of the pandemic and compare these estimates to the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 on death certificates. Overall, we estimated that 268,176 excess deaths were not reported as Covid-19 deaths during the first two years of the Covid-19 pandemic, which represented 23.7% of all excess deaths that occurred. Differences between excess deaths and reported COVID-19 deaths were substantial in both the first and second year of the pandemic. Excess deaths were less likely to be reported as COVID-19 deaths in the Mountain division, in the South, and in nonmetro counties. The number of excess deaths exceeded COVID-19 deaths in all Census divisions except for the New England and Middle Atlantic divisions where there were more COVID-19 deaths than excess deaths in large metro areas and medium or small metro areas. Increases in excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 followed similar patterns over time to increases in reported COVID-19 deaths and typically preceded or occurred concurrently with increases in reported COVID-19 deaths. Estimates from this study can be used to inform targeting of resources to areas in which the true toll of the COVID-19 pandemic has been underestimated.
| S-EPMC9882565 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We report the clinical features of 3 patients in France who had parotitis (inflammation of the parotid salivary glands) as a clinical manifestation of confirmed coronavirus disease. Results from magnetic resonance imaging support the occurrence of intraparotid lymphadenitis, leading to a parotitis-like clinical picture.
| S-EPMC7454100 | biostudies-literature
Project description:COVID-19, although a respiratory illness, has been clinically associated with non-respiratory symptoms. We conducted a negative case-control study to identify the symptoms associated with SARS-CoV-2-positive results in Portugal. Twelve symptoms and signs included in the clinical notification of COVID-19 were selected as predictors, and the dependent variable was the RT-PCR test result. The χ2 tests were used to compare notified cases on sex, age group, health region and presence of comorbidities. The best-fit prediction model was selected using a backward stepwise method with an unconditional logistic regression. General and gastrointestinal symptoms were strongly associated with a positive test (P < 0.001). In this sense, the inclusion of general symptoms such as myalgia, headache and fatigue, as well as diarrhoea, together with actual clinical criteria for suspected cases, already updated and included in COVID-19 case definition, can lead to increased identification of cases and represent an effective strength for transmission control.
| S-EPMC7925981 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceEfforts to track the severity and public health impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United States have been hampered by state-level differences in diagnostic test availability, differing strategies for prioritization of individuals for testing, and delays between testing and reporting. Evaluating unexplained increases in deaths due to all causes or attributed to nonspecific outcomes, such as pneumonia and influenza, can provide a more complete picture of the burden of COVID-19.ObjectiveTo estimate the burden of all deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States from March to May 2020.Design, setting, and populationThis observational study evaluated the numbers of US deaths from any cause and deaths from pneumonia, influenza, and/or COVID-19 from March 1 through May 30, 2020, using public data of the entire US population from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). These numbers were compared with those from the same period of previous years. All data analyzed were accessed on June 12, 2020.Main outcomes and measuresIncreases in weekly deaths due to any cause or deaths due to pneumonia/influenza/COVID-19 above a baseline, which was adjusted for time of year, influenza activity, and reporting delays. These estimates were compared with reported deaths attributed to COVID-19 and with testing data.ResultsThere were approximately 781 000 total deaths in the United States from March 1 to May 30, 2020, representing 122 300 (95% prediction interval, 116 800-127 000) more deaths than would typically be expected at that time of year. There were 95 235 reported deaths officially attributed to COVID-19 from March 1 to May 30, 2020. The number of excess all-cause deaths was 28% higher than the official tally of COVID-19-reported deaths during that period. In several states, these deaths occurred before increases in the availability of COVID-19 diagnostic tests and were not counted in official COVID-19 death records. There was substantial variability between states in the difference between official COVID-19 deaths and the estimated burden of excess deaths.Conclusions and relevanceExcess deaths provide an estimate of the full COVID-19 burden and indicate that official tallies likely undercount deaths due to the virus. The mortality burden and the completeness of the tallies vary markedly between states.
| S-EPMC7330834 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn the United States, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths are captured through the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System and death certificates reported to the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS). However, not all COVID-19 deaths are recognized and reported because of limitations in testing, exacerbation of chronic health conditions that are listed as the cause of death, or delays in reporting. Estimating deaths may provide a more comprehensive understanding of total COVID-19-attributable deaths.MethodsWe estimated COVID-19 unrecognized attributable deaths, from March 2020-April 2021, using all-cause deaths reported to NVSS by week and six age groups (0-17, 18-49, 50-64, 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85 years) for 50 states, New York City, and the District of Columbia using a linear time series regression model. Reported COVID-19 deaths were subtracted from all-cause deaths before applying the model. Weekly expected deaths, assuming no SARS-CoV-2 circulation and predicted all-cause deaths using SARS-CoV-2 weekly percent positive as a covariate were modelled by age group and including state as a random intercept. COVID-19-attributable unrecognized deaths were calculated for each state and age group by subtracting the expected all-cause deaths from the predicted deaths.FindingsWe estimated that 766,611 deaths attributable to COVID-19 occurred in the United States from March 8, 2020-May 29, 2021. Of these, 184,477 (24%) deaths were not documented on death certificates. Eighty-two percent of unrecognized deaths were among persons aged ≥65 years; the proportion of unrecognized deaths were 0•24-0•31 times lower among those 0-17 years relative to all other age groups. More COVID-19-attributable deaths were not captured during the early months of the pandemic (March-May 2020) and during increases in SARS-CoV-2 activity (July 2020, November 2020-February 2021).InterpretationEstimating COVID-19-attributable unrecognized deaths provides a better understanding of the COVID-19 mortality burden and may better quantify the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic.FundingNone.
| S-EPMC8275579 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC10125210 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundExposure to COVID-19 is more likely among certain occupations compared with others. This descriptive study seeks to explore occupational differences in mortality due to COVID-19 among workers in Massachusetts.MethodsDeath certificates of those who died from COVID-19 in Massachusetts between March 1 and July 31, 2020 were collected. Occupational information was coded and age-adjusted mortality rates were calculated according to occupation.ResultsThere were 555 deaths among MA residents of age 16-64, with usable occupation information, resulting in an age-adjusted mortality rate of 16.4 per 100,000 workers. Workers in 11 occupational groups including healthcare support and transportation and material moving had mortality rates higher than that for workers overall. Hispanic and Black workers had age-adjusted mortality rates more than four times higher than that for White workers overall and also had higher rates than Whites within high-risk occupation groups.ConclusionEfforts should be made to protect workers in high-risk occupations identified in this report from COVID-19 exposure.
| S-EPMC8013546 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC7875714 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We estimated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Brazil for 2020 and 2021 years. We used mortality data (2015-2021) from the Brazilian Health Ministry for forecasting baseline deaths under non-pandemic conditions and to estimate all-cause excess deaths at the country level and stratified by sex, age, ethnicity and region of residence, from March 2020 to December 2021. We also considered the estimation of excess deaths due to specific causes. The estimated all-cause excess deaths were 187 842 (95% PI: 164 122; 211 562, P-Score = 16.1%) for weeks 10-53, 2020, and 441 048 (95% PI: 411 740; 470 356, P-Score = 31.9%) for weeks 1-52, 2021. P-Score values ranged from 1.4% (RS, South) to 38.1% (AM, North) in 2020 and from 21.2% (AL and BA, Northeast) to 66.1% (RO, North) in 2021. Differences among men (18.4%) and women (13.4%) appeared in 2020 only, and the P-Score values were about 30% for both sexes in 2021. Except for youngsters (< 20 years old), all adult age groups were badly hit, especially those from 40 to 79 years old. In 2020, the Indigenous, Black and East Asian descendants had the highest P-Score (26.2 to 28.6%). In 2021, Black (34.7%) and East Asian descendants (42.5%) suffered the greatest impact. The pandemic impact had enormous regional heterogeneity and substantial differences according to socio-demographic factors, mainly during the first wave, showing that some population strata benefited from the social distancing measures when they could adhere to them. In the second wave, the burden was very high for all but extremely high for some, highlighting that our society must tackle the health inequalities experienced by groups of different socio-demographic statuses.
| S-EPMC10212149 | biostudies-literature