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Inflection point: The future of subcontracting in the petroleum industry

ABSTRACT: Oil prices have been in the downtrend since the recession of 2008. Since then, companies have struggled to survive as factors of production are being driven by external influences. International efforts to create a sustainable environment further intricates the supply and demand curve as countries develop policies and strategies to phase out fossil fuels. There has been a myriad of researches conducted by both public and private organisations that seem to agree and disagree on certain factors of a peak oil forecast. There is lack of research however, on finding common ground to determine the central tendencies if multiple predictions are accounted, which creates bias in decision making. The findings of this research provide a practical outlook for businesses and governments to better position their financial and policy decisions with regard to fossil fuels which could affect the lives of many. This research uses a novel prediction combination approach to determine an earliest-case peak oil occurrence through qualitative and quantitative methods for bias minimisation. The predictions are sourced from a balance of reputable private and public international agencies. The result interestingly finds commonality of reaching an earliest-case of peak oil in the year 2025 with feasible factors considered. The research discusses the inflection point forecast and financial risk mitigation recommendations for private entities and governments gathered from expert reports and articles in the field of oil supply and demand. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • Public and private economic experts peak oil predictions are qualitatively examined.• Predictions of peak oil occurrence are combined through a quantitative summation algorithm.• Commonality in predictions provides an earliest-case peak oil in 2025 with considerations.• Private and public experts agree on strategies to mitigate the effects of peak oil in businesses and economies.

SUBMITTER: Tupaz J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7331520 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundTemporary circulatory support is a bridge between acute circulatory failure and definitive treatment or recovery. Currently, venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) is considered to be one of the effective circulatory support methods, although cardiac function monitoring during the treatment still needs further investigation. Inflection point of arterial oxygen partial pressure (IPPaO2) may occur at an early stage in part of patients with a good prognosis after VA-ECMO treatment, and the relationship between time of IPPaO2 (tIPPaO2) and recovery of cardiac function or prognosis remains unclear.MethodsTo investigate this relationship, we retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 71 patients with different conditions after treatment with VA-ECMO in the emergency center of Jiangsu Province Hospital between May 2015 and July 2020. Spearman's correlation analysis was used for the correlation between tIPPaO2 and quantitative data, and ROC curve for the predictive effect of tIPPaO2 on the 28-day mortality.ResultsThirty-five patients were admitted because of refractory cardiogenic shock (26 of 35 survived) and the remaining 36 patients due to cardiac arrest (13 of 36 survived). The overall survival rate was 54.9% (39 of 71 survived). Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II, ECMO time, tIPPaO2, continuous renal replacement therapy time, mechanical ventilation time, and bleeding complications in the survival group were lower than those in the non-survival group, with length of stay, intensive care unit stay, and platelet levels were being higher. The tIPPaO2 was negatively correlated with ejection fraction, and the shorter tIPPaO2 resulted in a higher 28-day survival probability, higher predictive value for acute myocardial infarction and fulminant myocarditis.ConclusionsTherefore, tIPPaO2 could be a reliable qualitative indicator of cardiac function in patients treated with VA-ECMO, which can reveal appropriate timing for adjusting VA-ECMO flow or weaning.Trial registrationChiCTR1900026105 .

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Inflection point: The future of subcontracting in the petroleum industry

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