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Predictors of progression from moderate to severe coronavirus disease 2019: a retrospective cohort.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:Most cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are identified as moderate, which is defined as having a fever or dry cough and lung imaging with ground-glass opacities. The risk factors and predictors of prognosis in such cohorts remain uncertain. METHODS:All adults with COVID-19 of moderate severity diagnosed using quantitative RT-PCR and hospitalized at the Central Hospital of Wuhan, China, from 1 January to 20 March 2020 were enrolled in this retrospective study. The main outcomes were progression from moderate to severe or critical condition or death. RESULTS:Among the 456 enrolled patients with moderate COVID-19, 251/456 (55.0%) had poor prognosis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified higher neutrophil count: lymphocyte count ratio (NLR) on admission (OR 1.032, 95% CI 1.042-1.230, p 0.004) and higher C-reactive protein (CRP) on admission (OR 3.017, 95% CI 1.941-4.690, p < 0.001) were associated with increased OR of poor prognosis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for NLR and CRP in predicting progression to critical condition was 0.77 (95% CI 0.694-0.846, p < 0.001) and 0.84 (95% CI 0.780-0.905, p < 0.001), with a cut-off value of 2.79 and 25.95 mg/L, respectively. The AUC of NLR and CRP in predicting death was 0.81 (95% CI 0.732-0.878, p < 0.001) and 0.89 (95% CI 0.825-0.946, p < 0.001), with a cut-off value of 3.19 and 33.4 mg/L, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:Higher levels of NLR and CRP at admission were associated with poor prognosis of individuals with moderate COVID-19. NLR and CRP were good predictors of progression to critical condition and death.

SUBMITTER: Cheng B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7331556 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictors of progression from moderate to severe coronavirus disease 2019: a retrospective cohort.

Cheng B B Hu J J Zuo X X Chen J J Li X X Chen Y Y Yang G G Shi X X Deng A A

Clinical microbiology and infection : the official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases 20200702 10

<h4>Objective</h4>Most cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are identified as moderate, which is defined as having a fever or dry cough and lung imaging with ground-glass opacities. The risk factors and predictors of prognosis in such cohorts remain uncertain.<h4>Methods</h4>All adults with COVID-19 of moderate severity diagnosed using quantitative RT-PCR and hospitalized at the Central Hospital of Wuhan, China, from 1 January to 20 March 2020 were enrolled in this retrospective study. T ...[more]

PMID: 32622952

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Project description:BackgroundThe current worldwide pandemic of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has posed a serious threat to global public health, and the mortality rate of critical ill patients remains high. The purpose of this study was to identify factors that early predict the progression of COVID-19 from severe to critical illness.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study included adult patients with severe or critical ill COVID-19 who were consecutively admitted to the Zhongfaxincheng campus of Tongji Hospital (Wuhan, China) from February 8 to 18, 2020. Baseline variables, data at hospital admission and during hospital stay, as well as clinical outcomes were collected from electronic medical records system. The primary endpoint was the development of critical illness. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify independent factors that were associated with the progression from severe to critical illness.ResultsA total of 138 patients were included in the analysis; of them 119 were diagnosed as severe cases and 16 as critical ill cases at hospital admission. During hospital stay, 19 more severe cases progressed to critical illness. For all enrolled patients, longer duration from diagnosis to admission (odds ratio [OR] 1.108, 95% CI 1.022-1.202; P = 0.013), pulse oxygen saturation at admission <93% (OR 5.775, 95% CI 1.257-26.535; P = 0.024), higher neutrophil count (OR 1.495, 95% CI 1.177-1.899; P = 0.001) and higher creatine kinase-MB level at admission (OR 2.449, 95% CI 1.089-5.511; P = 0.030) were associated with a higher risk, whereas higher lymphocyte count at admission (OR 0.149, 95% CI 0.026-0.852; P = 0.032) was associated with a lower risk of critical illness development. For the subgroup of severe cases at hospital admission, the above factors except creatine kinase-MB level were also found to have similar correlation with critical illness development.ConclusionsHigher neutrophil count and lower lymphocyte count at admission were early independent predictors of progression to critical illness in severe COVID-19 patients.

Project description:BackgroundComplement activation contributes to lung dysfunction in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We assessed whether C5 blockade with eculizumab could improve disease outcome.MethodsIn this single-centre, academic, unblinded study two 900 mg eculizumab doses were added-on standard therapy in ten COVID-19 patients admitted from February 2020 to April 2020 and receiving Continuous-Positive-Airway-Pressure (CPAP) ventilator support from ≤24 hours. We compared their outcomes with those of 65 contemporary similar controls. Primary outcome was respiratory rate at one week of ventilator support. Secondary outcomes included the combined endpoint of mortality and discharge with chronic complications.ResultsBaseline characteristics of eculizumab-treated patients and controls were similar. At baseline, sC5b-9 levels, ex vivo C5b-9 and thrombi deposition were increased. Ex vivo tests normalised in eculizumab-treated patients, but not in controls. In eculizumab-treated patients respiratory rate decreased from 26.8±7.3 breaths/min at baseline to 20.3±3.8 and 18.0±4.8 breaths/min at one and two weeks, respectively (p<0.05 for both), but did not change in controls. Between-group changes differed significantly at both time-points (p<0.01). Changes in respiratory rate correlated with concomitant changes in ex vivo C5b-9 deposits at one (rs = 0.706, p = 0.010) and two (rs = 0.751, p = 0.032) weeks. Over a median (IQR) period of 47.0 (14.0-121.0) days, four eculizumab-treated patients died or had chronic complications versus 52 controls [HRCrude (95% CI): 0.26 (0.09-0.72), p = 0.010]. Between-group difference was significant even after adjustment for age, sex and baseline serum creatinine [HRAdjusted (95% CI): 0.30 (0.10-0.84), p = 0.023]. Six patients and 13 controls were discharged without complications [HRCrude (95% CI): 2.88 (1.08-7.70), p = 0.035]. Eculizumab was tolerated well. The main study limitations were the relatively small sample size and the non-randomised design.ConclusionsIn patients with severe COVID-19, eculizumab safely improved respiratory dysfunction and decreased the combined endpoint of mortality and discharge with chronic complications. Findings need confirmation in randomised controlled trials.

Project description:Combination therapy using Western and traditional Chinese medicines has shown notable effects on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The He-Jie-Shen-Shi decoction (HJSS), composed of Bupleurum chinense DC., Scutellaria baicalensis Georgi, Pinellia ternata (Thunb.) Makino, Glycyrrhiza uralensis Fisch. ex DC., and nine other herbs, has been used to treat severe COVID-19 in clinical practice. The aim of this study was to compare the clinical efficacies of HJSS combination therapy and Western monotherapy against severe COVID-19 and to study the potential action mechanism of HJSS. From February 2020 to March 2020, 81 patients with severe COVID-19 in Wuhan Tongji Hospital were selected for retrospective cohort study. Network pharmacology was conducted to predict the possible mechanism of HJSS on COVID-19-related acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Targets of active components in HJSS were screened using the Traditional Chinese Medicine Systems Pharmacology (TCMSP) and PharmMapper databases. The targets of COVID-19 and ARDS were obtained from GeneCards and Online Mendelian Inheritance in Man databases. The key targets of HJSS in COVID-19 and ARDS were obtained based on the protein-protein interaction network (PPI). Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes analysis (KEGG) was conducted to predict the pathways related to the targets of HJSS in COVID-19 and ARDS. A "herb-ingredient-target-pathway" network was established using Cytoscape 3.2.7. Results showed that the duration of the negative conversion time of nucleic acid was shorter in patients who received HJSS combination therapy. HJSS combination therapy also relieved fever in patients with severe COVID-19. Network pharmacology analysis identified interleukin (IL) 6, tumor necrosis factor (TNF), vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGFA), catalase (CAT), mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) 1, tumor protein p53 (TP53), CC-chemokine ligand (CCL2), MAPK3, prostaglandin-endoperoxide synthase 2 (PTGS2), and IL1B as the key targets of HJSS in COVID-19-related ARDS. KEGG analysis suggested that HJSS improved COVID-19-related ARDS by regulating hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF)-1, NOD-like receptor, TNF, T cell receptor, sphingolipid, PI3K-Akt, toll-like receptor, VEGF, FoxO, and MAPK signaling pathways. In conclusion, HJSS can be used as an adjuvant therapy on severe COVID-19. The therapeutic mechanisms may be involved in inhibiting viral replication, inflammatory response, and oxidative stress and alleviating lung injury. Further studies are required to confirm its clinical efficacies and action mechanisms.

Project description:BackgroundThis study aimed to determine the frequency of functional decline and to identify the factors related to a greater risk of functional decline among hospitalized older patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).MethodsWe reviewed the medical records of patients aged over 65 years who were admitted to a tertiary care hospital for COVID-19 over 1 year from February 2020. We evaluated the proportion of functional decline, which was defined as a decrease in the Barthel Index score from before the onset of COVID-19 to discharge. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the associations between the demographic and clinical characteristics of patients at admission and a greater risk of functional decline. Two sensitivity analyses with different inclusion criteria were performed: one in patients without very severe functional decline before the onset of COVID-19 (i.e., limited to those with Barthel Index score ≥ 25), and the other with a composite outcome of functional decline and death at discharge.ResultsThe study included 132 patients with COVID-19; of these, 72 (54.5%) developed functional decline. The severity of COVID-19 did not differ between patients with functional decline and those without (P = 0.698). Factors associated with a greater risk of functional decline included female sex (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 3.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.25 to 7.94), Barthel Index score < 100 before the onset of COVID-19 (aOR, 13.73; 95% CI, 3.29 to 57.25), and elevation of plasma D-dimer level on admission (aOR, 3.19; 95% CI, 1.12 to 9.07). The sensitivity analyses yielded similar results to those of the main analysis.ConclusionsOver half of the older patients who recovered from COVID-19 developed functional decline at discharge from a tertiary care hospital in Japan. Baseline activities of daily living impairment, female sex, and elevated plasma D-dimer levels at admission were associated with a greater risk of functional decline.

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Predictors of progression from moderate to severe coronavirus disease 2019: a retrospective cohort.

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Predictors of progression from moderate to severe coronavirus disease 2019: a retrospective cohort.

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