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Predictors of progression from moderate to severe coronavirus disease 2019: a retrospective cohort.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:Most cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are identified as moderate, which is defined as having a fever or dry cough and lung imaging with ground-glass opacities. The risk factors and predictors of prognosis in such cohorts remain uncertain. METHODS:All adults with COVID-19 of moderate severity diagnosed using quantitative RT-PCR and hospitalized at the Central Hospital of Wuhan, China, from 1 January to 20 March 2020 were enrolled in this retrospective study. The main outcomes were progression from moderate to severe or critical condition or death. RESULTS:Among the 456 enrolled patients with moderate COVID-19, 251/456 (55.0%) had poor prognosis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified higher neutrophil count: lymphocyte count ratio (NLR) on admission (OR 1.032, 95% CI 1.042-1.230, p 0.004) and higher C-reactive protein (CRP) on admission (OR 3.017, 95% CI 1.941-4.690, p < 0.001) were associated with increased OR of poor prognosis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for NLR and CRP in predicting progression to critical condition was 0.77 (95% CI 0.694-0.846, p < 0.001) and 0.84 (95% CI 0.780-0.905, p < 0.001), with a cut-off value of 2.79 and 25.95 mg/L, respectively. The AUC of NLR and CRP in predicting death was 0.81 (95% CI 0.732-0.878, p < 0.001) and 0.89 (95% CI 0.825-0.946, p < 0.001), with a cut-off value of 3.19 and 33.4 mg/L, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:Higher levels of NLR and CRP at admission were associated with poor prognosis of individuals with moderate COVID-19. NLR and CRP were good predictors of progression to critical condition and death.

SUBMITTER: Cheng B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7331556 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictors of progression from moderate to severe coronavirus disease 2019: a retrospective cohort.

Cheng B B Hu J J Zuo X X Chen J J Li X X Chen Y Y Yang G G Shi X X Deng A A

Clinical microbiology and infection : the official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases 20200702 10

<h4>Objective</h4>Most cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are identified as moderate, which is defined as having a fever or dry cough and lung imaging with ground-glass opacities. The risk factors and predictors of prognosis in such cohorts remain uncertain.<h4>Methods</h4>All adults with COVID-19 of moderate severity diagnosed using quantitative RT-PCR and hospitalized at the Central Hospital of Wuhan, China, from 1 January to 20 March 2020 were enrolled in this retrospective study. T ...[more]

PMID: 32622952

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Project description:BACKGROUNDSince December 2019, an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in Wuhan, and is now becoming a global threat. We aimed to delineate and compare the immunological features of severe and moderate COVID-19.METHODSIn this retrospective study, the clinical and immunological characteristics of 21 patients (17 male and 4 female) with COVID-19 were analyzed. These patients were classified as severe (11 cases) and moderate (10 cases) according to the guidelines released by the National Health Commission of China.RESULTSThe median age of severe and moderate cases was 61.0 and 52.0 years, respectively. Common clinical manifestations included fever, cough, and fatigue. Compared with moderate cases, severe cases more frequently had dyspnea, lymphopenia, and hypoalbuminemia, with higher levels of alanine aminotransferase, lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein, ferritin, and D-dimer as well as markedly higher levels of IL-2R, IL-6, IL-10, and TNF-α. Absolute numbers of T lymphocytes, CD4+ T cells, and CD8+ T cells decreased in nearly all the patients, and were markedly lower in severe cases (294.0, 177.5, and 89.0 × 106/L, respectively) than moderate cases (640.5, 381.5, and 254.0 × 106/L, respectively). The expression of IFN-γ by CD4+ T cells tended to be lower in severe cases (14.1%) than in moderate cases (22.8%).CONCLUSIONThe SARS-CoV-2 infection may affect primarily T lymphocytes, particularly CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, resulting in a decrease in numbers as well as IFN-γ production by CD4+ T cells. These potential immunological markers may be of importance because of their correlation with disease severity in COVID-19.TRIAL REGISTRATIONThis is a retrospective observational study without a trial registration number.FUNDINGThis work is funded by grants from Tongji Hospital for the Pilot Scheme Project, and partly supported by the Chinese National Thirteenth Five Years Project in Science and Technology for Infectious Disease (2017ZX10202201).

Project description:BackgroundThe current worldwide pandemic of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has posed a serious threat to global public health, and the mortality rate of critical ill patients remains high. The purpose of this study was to identify factors that early predict the progression of COVID-19 from severe to critical illness.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study included adult patients with severe or critical ill COVID-19 who were consecutively admitted to the Zhongfaxincheng campus of Tongji Hospital (Wuhan, China) from February 8 to 18, 2020. Baseline variables, data at hospital admission and during hospital stay, as well as clinical outcomes were collected from electronic medical records system. The primary endpoint was the development of critical illness. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify independent factors that were associated with the progression from severe to critical illness.ResultsA total of 138 patients were included in the analysis; of them 119 were diagnosed as severe cases and 16 as critical ill cases at hospital admission. During hospital stay, 19 more severe cases progressed to critical illness. For all enrolled patients, longer duration from diagnosis to admission (odds ratio [OR] 1.108, 95% CI 1.022-1.202; P = 0.013), pulse oxygen saturation at admission <93% (OR 5.775, 95% CI 1.257-26.535; P = 0.024), higher neutrophil count (OR 1.495, 95% CI 1.177-1.899; P = 0.001) and higher creatine kinase-MB level at admission (OR 2.449, 95% CI 1.089-5.511; P = 0.030) were associated with a higher risk, whereas higher lymphocyte count at admission (OR 0.149, 95% CI 0.026-0.852; P = 0.032) was associated with a lower risk of critical illness development. For the subgroup of severe cases at hospital admission, the above factors except creatine kinase-MB level were also found to have similar correlation with critical illness development.ConclusionsHigher neutrophil count and lower lymphocyte count at admission were early independent predictors of progression to critical illness in severe COVID-19 patients.

Project description:Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus. Although it is known that the COVID-19 acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is associated with higher incidence of pulmonary barotrauma, unique mechanisms causing the aforementioned complication are still to be investigated. The goal of this research was to investigate the incidence of barotrauma among COVID-19 patients treated in the intensive care unit (ICU) and to examine different clinical outcomes among those subjects. This retrospective observational cohort study included adult COVID-19 patients admitted to ICU from September 1, 2020, to February 28, 2022. All admitted subjects received invasive respiratory support. Subjects were divided into two groups based on occurrence of pulmonary barotrauma. Data were collected from available electronical medical records. In the study period, a total of 900 subjects met inclusion criteria. Pulmonary barotrauma occurred in 88 (9.8%) of them. Subcutaneous emphysema developed in 73 (83%), pneumomediastinum in 68 (77.3%) and pneumothorax in 54 (61.4%) subjects. A small group of subjects developed less common complications like pneumoperitoneum (8 subjects, 9.1%) and pneumopericardium (2 subjects, 2.3%). Survival rate was higher in control than in barotrauma group [396 (48.8%) vs. 22 (25.0%), P<0.05]. There was also a significant difference between two groups in PaO2/FiO2 ratio on admission, duration of non-invasive respiratory support before mechanical ventilation, duration of mechanical ventilation and duration of ICU and hospital stay, all in favour of control group. Development of barotrauma in patients with severe forms of COVID-19 disease and in need of respiratory support is associated with longer ICU and hospital stay as well as lower survival rates at hospital discharge. Further efforts are needed in understanding mechanism in developing barotrauma and finding new prevention and treatment options.

Project description:BackgroundComplement activation contributes to lung dysfunction in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We assessed whether C5 blockade with eculizumab could improve disease outcome.MethodsIn this single-centre, academic, unblinded study two 900 mg eculizumab doses were added-on standard therapy in ten COVID-19 patients admitted from February 2020 to April 2020 and receiving Continuous-Positive-Airway-Pressure (CPAP) ventilator support from ≤24 hours. We compared their outcomes with those of 65 contemporary similar controls. Primary outcome was respiratory rate at one week of ventilator support. Secondary outcomes included the combined endpoint of mortality and discharge with chronic complications.ResultsBaseline characteristics of eculizumab-treated patients and controls were similar. At baseline, sC5b-9 levels, ex vivo C5b-9 and thrombi deposition were increased. Ex vivo tests normalised in eculizumab-treated patients, but not in controls. In eculizumab-treated patients respiratory rate decreased from 26.8±7.3 breaths/min at baseline to 20.3±3.8 and 18.0±4.8 breaths/min at one and two weeks, respectively (p<0.05 for both), but did not change in controls. Between-group changes differed significantly at both time-points (p<0.01). Changes in respiratory rate correlated with concomitant changes in ex vivo C5b-9 deposits at one (rs = 0.706, p = 0.010) and two (rs = 0.751, p = 0.032) weeks. Over a median (IQR) period of 47.0 (14.0-121.0) days, four eculizumab-treated patients died or had chronic complications versus 52 controls [HRCrude (95% CI): 0.26 (0.09-0.72), p = 0.010]. Between-group difference was significant even after adjustment for age, sex and baseline serum creatinine [HRAdjusted (95% CI): 0.30 (0.10-0.84), p = 0.023]. Six patients and 13 controls were discharged without complications [HRCrude (95% CI): 2.88 (1.08-7.70), p = 0.035]. Eculizumab was tolerated well. The main study limitations were the relatively small sample size and the non-randomised design.ConclusionsIn patients with severe COVID-19, eculizumab safely improved respiratory dysfunction and decreased the combined endpoint of mortality and discharge with chronic complications. Findings need confirmation in randomised controlled trials.

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Predictors of progression from moderate to severe coronavirus disease 2019: a retrospective cohort.

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Predictors of progression from moderate to severe coronavirus disease 2019: a retrospective cohort.

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