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An analysis of COVID-19 spread based on fractal interpolation and fractal dimension

ABSTRACT: Highlights • Epidemic curves can be approached from a fractal interpolation point of view.• Looking at the Covid-19 epidemic curves from a fractal point of view might benefit the medical community to understand better the dynamics and evolution of the pandemic.• Fractal interpolation of data regarding Covid-19 can help retrieve missing pieces of information due to limited testing.• Analyzing maps of the spreading of Covid-19 in different countries from a fractal dimension point of view can be a useful tool in assessing the complexity of the pandemic on the territory of a country. The present paper proposes a reconstruction of the epidemic curves from the fractal interpolation point of view. Looking at the epidemic curves as fractal structures might be an efficient way to retrieve missing pieces of information due to insufficient testing and predict the evolution of the disease. A fractal approach of the epidemic curve can contribute to the assessment and modeling of other epidemics. On the other hand, we have considered the spread of the epidemic in countries like Romania, Italy, Spain, and Germany and analyzed the spread of the disease in those countries based on their fractal dimension.

SUBMITTER: Pacurar C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7332948 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:A failure of adaptive inference-misinterpreting available sensory information for appropriate perception and action-is at the heart of clinical manifestations of schizophrenia, implicating key subcortical structures in the brain including the hippocampus. We used high-resolution, three-dimensional (3D) fractal geometry analysis to study subtle and potentially biologically relevant structural alterations (in the geometry of protrusions, gyri and indentations, sulci) in subcortical gray matter (GM) in patients with schizophrenia relative to healthy individuals. In particular, we focus on utilizing Fractal Dimension (FD), a compact shape descriptor that can be computed using inputs with irregular (i.e., not necessarily smooth) surfaces in order to quantify complexity (of geometrical properties and configurations of structures across spatial scales) of subcortical GM in this disorder. Probabilistic (entropy-based) information FD was computed based on the box-counting approach for each of the seven subcortical structures, bilaterally, as well as the brainstem from high-resolution magnetic resonance (MR) images in chronic patients with schizophrenia (n = 19) and age-matched healthy controls (n = 19) (age ranges: patients, 22.7-54.3 and healthy controls, 24.9-51.6 years old). We found a significant reduction of FD in the left hippocampus (median: 2.1460, range: 2.07-2.18 vs. median: 2.1730, range: 2.15-2.23, p<0.001; Cohen's effect size, U3 = 0.8158 (95% Confidence Intervals, CIs: 0.6316, 1.0)), the right hippocampus (median: 2.1430, range: 2.05-2.19 vs. median: 2.1760, range: 2.12-2.21, p = 0.004; U3 = 0.8421 (CIs: 0.5263, 1)), as well as left thalamus (median: 2.4230, range: 2.40-2.44, p = 0.005; U3 = 0.7895 (CIs: 0.5789, 0.9473)) in schizophrenia patients, relative to healthy individuals. Our findings provide in-vivo quantitative evidence for reduced surface complexity of hippocampus, with reduced FD indicating a less complex, less regular GM surface detected in schizophrenia.

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An analysis of COVID-19 spread based on fractal interpolation and fractal dimension

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