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Increasing trends in regional heatwaves.

ABSTRACT: Heatwaves have increased in intensity, frequency and duration, with these trends projected to worsen under enhanced global warming. Understanding regional heatwave trends has critical implications for the biophysical and human systems they impact. Until now a comprehensive assessment of regional observed changes was hindered by the range of metrics employed, underpinning datasets, and time periods examined. Here, using the Berkeley Earth temperature dataset and key heatwave metrics, we systematically examine regional and global observed heatwave trends. In almost all regions, heatwave frequency demonstrates the most rapid and significant change. A measure of cumulative heat shows significant increases almost everywhere since the 1950s, mainly driven by heatwave days. Trends in heatwave frequency, duration and cumulative heat have accelerated since the 1950s, and due to the high influence of variability we recommend regional trends are assessed over multiple decades. Our results provide comparable regional observed heatwave trends, on spatial and temporal scales necessary for understanding impacts.

SUBMITTER: Perkins-Kirkpatrick SE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7334217 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Increasing trends in regional heatwaves.

Perkins-Kirkpatrick S E SE Lewis S C SC

Nature communications 20200703 1

Heatwaves have increased in intensity, frequency and duration, with these trends projected to worsen under enhanced global warming. Understanding regional heatwave trends has critical implications for the biophysical and human systems they impact. Until now a comprehensive assessment of regional observed changes was hindered by the range of metrics employed, underpinning datasets, and time periods examined. Here, using the Berkeley Earth temperature dataset and key heatwave metrics, we systemati ...[more]

PMID: 32620857

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Project description:Background There has been a decline in the stroke incidence across high income countries but such knowledge exists at Country or State rather than areal unit level such local government area (LGA). In this disease mapping study, we evaluate if there are local hot spots or temporal trends in TIA rate. Such knowledge will be of help in planning healthcare service delivery across regions. Methods Linked hospital discharge data (Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset or VAED) was used to collect TIA (defined by ICD-10-AM codes G450-G459) cases from 2001 to 2011. The State of Victoria is the second most populous state in Australia, with a population of 6.7 million and can be divided into 79 administrative units or LGA. The data is anonymized and contains residence of the patient in terms of LGA but not exact location. The date of the TIA event when the patient is admitted to hospital is provided in the dataset. The number of TIAs per year was aggregated for each LGA. Standardized TIA ratios were calculated by dividing actual over expected cases for each LGA per year. We used Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) to perform spatial and spatiotemporal regression, adjusting for hypertension, sex and population, age (≥60), and socio-economic status (SES) decile within the LGA. The final model was chosen based on the lowest the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) and Watanabe-Akaike information criteria (WAIC). Results Choropleth maps showed a higher standardized TIA ratios in North-West rural region. Compared to the baseline model (DIC 13,159, WAIC 13,261), adding in a spatial random effect significantly improved the model (DIC 6,463, WAIC 6,667). However, adding a temporal component did not lead to a significant improvement (DIC 6,483, WAIC 6,707). Conclusion Our finding suggests a statically significant spatial component to TIA rate over regional areas but no temporal changes or yearly trends. We propose that such exploratory method should be followed by evaluation of reasons for regional variations and which in turn can identify opportunities in primary prevention of stroke, and stroke care.

Dataset Information

Increasing trends in regional heatwaves.

Publications

Increasing trends in regional heatwaves.

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