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The mortality and psychological burden caused by response to COVID-19 outbreak.

ABSTRACT: The world is experiencing a severe COVID-19 outbreak. To control this outbreak, many governments in the world have imposed lockdown or quarantine measures. We hypothesize that these measures may cause additional mortality and morbidity in the (near) future due to delay in diagnosing diseases and other indirect effect on health (such as economic crisis). To support this hypothesis and to estimate the additional mortality that may linked to the COVID-19 controlling policy, we performed a step-by-step pragmatical approach. First, we chose a country (The Netherlands), and looked at the most common causes of mortality in this country. Then, we performed a literature study on the additional mortality when these causes were diagnosed late, and selected a paper with the most severe scenario. We also performed a literature study on the effect of economic crisis on additional mortality. The mortality data were then extrapolated to the demography of The Netherlands, and the results were compared with the present data on deaths directly due to COVID-19. Roughly, we forecast 388 additional deaths a week in The Netherlands in 5 years due to the direct and indirect effects of the lockdown measures. The most important implications of this hypothesis is that the additional mortality and increased mental health problem should be considered in evaluating the necessity of lock down and quarantine policy.

SUBMITTER: Yusuf E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7340075 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The mortality and psychological burden caused by response to COVID-19 outbreak.

Yusuf Erlangga E Tisler Anna A

Medical hypotheses 20200707

The world is experiencing a severe COVID-19 outbreak. To control this outbreak, many governments in the world have imposed lockdown or quarantine measures. We hypothesize that these measures may cause additional mortality and morbidity in the (near) future due to delay in diagnosing diseases and other indirect effect on health (such as economic crisis). To support this hypothesis and to estimate the additional mortality that may linked to the COVID-19 controlling policy, we performed a step-by-s ...[more]

PMID: 32688184

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Project description:Background: The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19 caused panic and psychological stress throughout the World. We investigated the extent of adverse psychological reactions in two medical staff groups in China, and explored the importance of online psychological assistance for them. Methods: A cross-sectional online survey including Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and Insomnia Severity Index (ISI) was utilized to assess anxiety, depression, and insomnia. Propensity score matching (PSM) was applied to match sex and age between the two groups. Differences in the prevalence of adverse psychological reactions between the two groups were compared by a Chi-square test. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was utilized to search for associated adverse psychological reaction factors of two groups. Results: A total of 2,920 medical staff took part in the survey, including 470 frontline and 2,450 non-frontline medical staff. The risk of the frontline group experiencing anxiety, depression, insomnia-early, insomnia-middle, and insomnia-late were 1.16, 1.28, 1.26, 1.22, 1.28 times those of the non-frontline group after PSM. For frontline medical staff, the spinsterhood state (OR = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.00-1.51; P = 0.05) was a risk factor for anxiety. Bachelor or college degree (OR = 2.23, 95% CI: 1.24-4.02, P = 0.01) and a contact history with COVID-19 patients (OR = 1.62, 95% CI: 1.10-2.40; P = 0.02) were risk factors for insomnia. For non-frontline medical staff, being a woman (OR = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.08-2.06, P = 0.01) was a risk factor for anxiety, whilst being in a middle age group was a protective factor for anxiety (OR = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.50-0.99, P = 0.04) and depression (OR = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.45-0.93, P = 0.02). Being a woman (OR = 1.47, 95% CI: 1.14-1.89, P = 0.003) and working in a COVID-19 unit (OR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.11-1.54, P = 0.001) were risk factors for insomnia, whilst the spinsterhood state (OR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.67-0.95; P = 0.01) was a protective factor for insomnia. Online forms of psychological aid were all popular with medical staff. Conclusions: The prevalence of anxiety, depression, and insomnia in frontline medical staff was significantly higher than in the non-frontline group. Appropriate intervention methods should be adopted according to the different influencing factors of the two groups. Online psychological aid was the preferred mechanism for relieving psychological problems.

Dataset Information

The mortality and psychological burden caused by response to COVID-19 outbreak.

Publications

The mortality and psychological burden caused by response to COVID-19 outbreak.

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