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Cost-effectiveness of public health strategies for COVID-19 epidemic control in South Africa.

ABSTRACT: Background Healthcare resource constraints in low and middle-income countries necessitate selection of cost-effective public health interventions to address COVID-19. Methods We developed a dynamic COVID-19 microsimulation model to evaluate clinical and economic outcomes and cost-effectiveness of epidemic control strategies in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Interventions assessed were Healthcare Testing (HT), where diagnostic testing is performed only for those presenting to healthcare centres; Contact Tracing (CT) in households of cases; Isolation Centres (IC), for cases not requiring hospitalisation; community health worker-led Mass Symptom Screening and diagnostic testing for symptomatic individuals (MS); and Quarantine Centres (QC), for contacts who test negative. Given uncertainties about epidemic dynamics in South Africa, we evaluated two main epidemic scenarios over 360 days, with effective reproduction numbers (R _e ) of 1.5 and 1.2. We compared HT, HT+CT, HT+CT+IC, HT+CT+IC+MS, HT+CT+IC+QC, and HT+CT+IC+MS+QC, considering strategies with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) e 1.5, HT resulted in the most COVID-19 deaths and lowest costs over 360 days. Compared with HT, HT+CT+IC+MS reduced mortality by 76%, increased costs by 16%, and was cost-effective (ICER $350/YLS). HT+CT+IC+MS+QC provided the greatest reduction in mortality, but increased costs by 95% compared with HT+CT+IC+MS and was not cost-effective (ICER $8,000/YLS). With R _e 1.2, HT+CT+IC+MS was the least costly strategy, and HT+CT+IC+MS+QC was not cost-effective (ICER $294,320/YLS). Interpretation In South Africa, a strategy of household contact tracing, isolation, and mass symptom screening would substantially reduce COVID-19 mortality and be cost-effective. Adding quarantine centres for COVID-19 contacts is not cost-effective.

SUBMITTER: Reddy KP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7340205 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Cost-effectiveness of public health strategies for COVID-19 epidemic control in South Africa: a microsimulation modelling study.

Reddy Krishna P KP Shebl Fatma M FM Foote Julia H A JHA Harling Guy G Scott Justine A JA Panella Christopher C Fitzmaurice Kieran P KP Flanagan Clare C Hyle Emily P EP Neilan Anne M AM Mohareb Amir M AM Bekker Linda-Gail LG Lessells Richard J RJ Ciaranello Andrea L AL Wood Robin R Losina Elena E Freedberg Kenneth A KA Kazemian Pooyan P Siedner Mark J MJ

medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences 20201011

<h4>Background</h4>Healthcare resource constraints in low and middle-income countries necessitate selection of cost-effective public health interventions to address COVID-19.<h4>Methods</h4>We developed a dynamic COVID-19 microsimulation model to evaluate clinical and economic outcomes and cost-effectiveness of epidemic control strategies in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Interventions assessed were Healthcare Testing (HT), where diagnostic testing is performed only for those presenting to healthc ...[more]

PMID: 32637979

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Project description:BackgroundHealth-care resource constraints in low-income and middle-income countries necessitate the identification of cost-effective public health interventions to address COVID-19. We aimed to develop a dynamic COVID-19 microsimulation model to assess clinical and economic outcomes and cost-effectiveness of epidemic control strategies in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa.MethodsWe compared different combinations of five public health interventions: health-care testing alone, where diagnostic testing is done only for individuals presenting to health-care centres; contact tracing in households of cases; isolation centres, for cases not requiring hospital admission; mass symptom screening and molecular testing for symptomatic individuals by community health-care workers; and quarantine centres, for household contacts who test negative. We calibrated infection transmission rates to match effective reproduction number (Re) estimates reported in South Africa. We assessed two main epidemic scenarios for a period of 360 days, with an Re of 1·5 and 1·2. Strategies with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of less than US$3250 per year of life saved were considered cost-effective. We also did sensitivity analyses by varying key parameters (Re values, molecular testing sensitivity, and efficacies and costs of interventions) to determine the effect on clinical and cost projections.FindingsWhen Re was 1·5, health-care testing alone resulted in the highest number of COVID-19 deaths during the 360-day period. Compared with health-care testing alone, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, mass symptom screening, and use of quarantine centres reduced mortality by 94%, increased health-care costs by 33%, and was cost-effective (ICER $340 per year of life saved). In settings where quarantine centres were not feasible, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, and mass symptom screening was cost-effective compared with health-care testing alone (ICER $590 per year of life saved). When Re was 1·2, health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, and use of quarantine centres was the least costly strategy, and no other strategies were cost-effective. In sensitivity analyses, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, mass symptom screening, and use of quarantine centres was generally cost-effective, with the exception of scenarios in which Re was 2·6 and when efficacies of isolation centres and quarantine centres for transmission reduction were reduced.InterpretationIn South Africa, strategies involving household contact tracing, isolation, mass symptom screening, and quarantining household contacts who test negative would substantially reduce COVID-19 mortality and would be cost-effective. The optimal combination of interventions depends on epidemic growth characteristics and practical implementation considerations.FundingUS National Institutes of Health, Royal Society, Wellcome Trust.

Project description:South Africa (SA) is reforming its health system in preparation for an anticipated national health insurance (NHI) scheme that aims to improve the delivery of affordable, equitable, accessible health care. Public health (PH) language is explicit in the policy and skilled PH professionals would be expected to play a key role in its implementation. In South Africa, training of doctors as Public Health Medicine (PHM) specialists is funded by the state, yet there are few positions for PHM specialists in the health services. We explored stakeholders' perspectives about this absence, and their views on PHM specialist' roles and contribution in an era of health reform. A qualitative study was conducted in 2012-13, using in-depth interviews with thematic analysis, which elicited perspectives of 31 key stakeholders nationally reflecting diverse employer and institutional backgrounds. While some were surprised by the absence of PH professionals in SA's health system, most agreed the reason was due to factors internal to the profession, such as its low profile and uncertain identity. External factors such as legislation and political preferences for health managers impacted on the employment of PH professionals. However, given the competencies required to implement an ambitious restructuring of the health sector, all believed that PH and PHM personnel were vital. In view of the health system's dominant curative orientation, embedding PH personnel in the services should ensure that health protection, promotion and prevention strategies will inform health priorities. This study, the first known from a low and middle-income country, contributes to the international literature about the identity and roles of PHM physicians, who are versatile professionals with broad skills-sets. In SA, through consultation with health sector employers about potential roles, curricular redesign and trainee recruitment, PHM can graduate fit-for-purpose specialists to work in a range of institutions to address health system reform.

Project description:BackgroundHome HIV counselling and testing (HTC) achieves high coverage of testing and linkage to care compared with existing facility-based approaches, particularly among asymptomatic individuals. In a modelling analysis we aimed to assess the effect on population-level health and cost-effectiveness of a community-based package of home HTC in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.MethodsWe parameterised an individual-based model with data from home HTC and linkage field studies that achieved high coverage (91%) and linkage to antiretroviral therapy (80%) in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Costs were derived from a linked microcosting study. The model simulated 10,000 individuals over 10 years and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated for the intervention relative to the existing status quo of facility-based testing, with costs discounted at 3% annually.FindingsThe model predicted implementation of home HTC in addition to current practice to decrease HIV-associated morbidity by 10–22% and HIV infections by 9–48% with increasing CD4 cell count thresholds for antiretroviral therapy initiation. Incremental programme costs were US$2·7 million to $4·4 million higher in the intervention scenarios than at baseline, and costs increased with higher CD4 cell count thresholds for antiretroviral therapy initiation; antiretroviral therapy accounted for 48–87% of total costs. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios per disability-adjusted life-year averted were $1340 at an antiretroviral therapy threshold of CD4 count lower than 200 cells per μL, $1090 at lower than 350 cells per μL, $1150 at lower than 500 cells per μL, and $1360 at universal access to antiretroviral therapy.InterpretationCommunity-based HTC with enhanced linkage to care can result in increased HIV testing coverage and treatment uptake, decreasing the population burden of HIV-associated morbidity and mortality. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios are less than 20% of South Africa's gross domestic product per person, and are therefore classed as very cost effective. Home HTC can be a viable means to achieve UNAIDS' ambitious new targets for HIV treatment coverage.FundingNational Institutes of Health, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust.

Dataset Information

Cost-effectiveness of public health strategies for COVID-19 epidemic control in South Africa.

Publications

Cost-effectiveness of public health strategies for COVID-19 epidemic control in South Africa: a microsimulation modelling study.

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