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Validation of a prognostic model for adverse perinatal health outcomes.

ABSTRACT: There is a strong association between social deprivation and adverse perinatal health outcomes, but related risk factors receive little attention in current antenatal risk selection. To increase awareness of healthcare professionals for these risk factors, a model for antenatal risk surveillance and care was developed in The Netherlands, called the 'Rotterdam Reproductive Risk Reduction' (R4U) scorecard. The aim of this study was to validate the R4U-scorecard. This study was conducted using external, prospective data from thirty-two midwifery practices, and fifteen hospitals in The Netherlands. The main outcome measures were the discrimination of the prognostic models for the probability of a pregnant woman developing adverse pregnancy outcomes (babies born preterm or small for gestational age), and calibration. We performed cross-validation and updated the model using statistical re-estimation of all predictors. 1752 participants were included, of whom 282 (16%) had one of the predefined adverse outcomes. The discriminative value of the original scoring system was poor [area under the curve (AUC) of 0.58 (95% CI 0.53-0.64)]. The model showed moderate calibration. The updated R4U-scorecard showed good generalisability to the validation set but did not alter the predictive value [AUC 0.61 (95% CI 0.56-0.66)]. By using external data and by updating the prognostic model, we have provided a comprehensive evaluation of the R4U-scorecard. Further improvement in classification of high-risk pregnancies is important considering the necessity of early risk detection for healthcare professionals to take appropriate actions to prevent these risks from becoming manifest problems.

SUBMITTER: Lagendijk J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7347528 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Validation of a prognostic model for adverse perinatal health outcomes.

Lagendijk Jacqueline J Steyerberg Ewout W EW Daalderop Leonie A LA Been Jasper V JV Steegers Eric A P EAP Posthumus Anke G AG

Scientific reports 20200709 1

There is a strong association between social deprivation and adverse perinatal health outcomes, but related risk factors receive little attention in current antenatal risk selection. To increase awareness of healthcare professionals for these risk factors, a model for antenatal risk surveillance and care was developed in The Netherlands, called the 'Rotterdam Reproductive Risk Reduction' (R4U) scorecard. The aim of this study was to validate the R4U-scorecard. This study was conducted using exte ...[more]

PMID: 32647224

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Project description:OBJECTIVES:To study the effect of an urban perinatal health programme in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, on perinatal outcomes. DESIGN:A retrospective cohort study with difference-in-differences analysis using individual-level perinatal outcome data from the Dutch Perinatal Registry 2003-2014 linked to Central Bureau of Statistics data of migration background and individual disposable household income. INTERVENTION:The programme consisted of perinatal health promotion, risk selection and risk-guided pregnancy care, and a new primary care child birth centre. The programme was implemented during 2009-2012. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES:We compared trends in perinatal mortality, preterm delivery and small-for-gestational-age births between targeted urban neighbourhoods in Rotterdam (n=61 415) and all other urban neighbourhoods in the Netherlands (n=881 202). The effect of the programme was modelled as a change in trend of each perinatal outcome in the treatment group post intervention compared with the control population from January 2010 onwards. All analyses were adjusted for maternal age, parity, ethnicity and individual-level low socioeconomic status (SES). We also conducted a stratified analysis by SES. RESULTS:During 2003-2014, downward trends in perinatal mortality (adjusted OR (aOR) 0.9439 per year, 95% CI 0.9362 to 0.9517), preterm birth (aOR 0.9970 per year, 95% CI 0.9944 to 0.9997) and small-for-gestational-age births (aOR 0.9809 per year, 95% CI 0.9787 to 0.9831) in the entire study population were observed. No demonstrable changes in these trends were found in the intervention group after the programme had started. The stratified analyses by SES showed no changes in trends post intervention in both strata either. CONCLUSIONS:The programme had no demonstrable effects on perinatal outcomes. The intervention may not have reached a sufficient proportion of the population or has provided too little contrast to the widespread attention for inequalities in pregnancy outcomes occurring simultaneously in the Netherlands.

Project description:ObjectiveOur objective was to conduct a systematic review of the published literature on housing instability during pregnancy and adverse pregnancy outcomes and perinatal healthcare utilization.Data sourcesWe performed a systematic search in November 2020 using Embase, MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, and Scopus using terms related to housing instability during pregnancy, adverse pregnancy outcomes, and perinatal healthcare utilization. The search was limited to the United States.Study eligibility criteriaStudies examining housing instability (including homelessness) during pregnancy and adverse pregnancy outcomes (including preterm birth, low birthweight neonates, and maternal morbidity) and perinatal healthcare utilization were included.MethodsTwo authors screened abstracts and full-length articles for inclusion. The final cohort consisted of 14 studies. Two authors independently extracted data from each article and assessed the study quality using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation tool. Risk of bias was assessed using the National Institutes of Health Study Quality Assessment Tools.ResultsAll included studies were observational, including retrospective cohort (n=10, 71.4%), cross-sectional observational (n=3, 21.4%), or prospective cohort studies (n=1, 7.1%). There was significant heterogeneity in the definitions of housing instability and homelessness. Most of the studies only examined homelessness (n=9, 64.3%) and not lesser degrees of housing instability. Housing instability and homelessness during pregnancy were significantly associated with preterm birth, low birthweight neonates, neonatal intensive care unit admission, and delivery complications. Among studies examining perinatal healthcare utilization, housing instability was associated with inadequate prenatal care and increased hospital utilization. All studies exhibited moderate, low, or very low study quality and fair or poor internal validity.ConclusionAlthough data on housing instability during pregnancy are limited by the lack of a standardized definition, a consistent relationship between housing instability and adverse pregnancy outcomes has been suggested by this systematic review. The evaluation and development of a standardized definition and measurement of housing instability among pregnant individuals is warranted to address future interventions targeted to housing instability during pregnancy.

Project description:BackgroundAdolescent girls between 15 and 19 years give birth to around 16 million babies each year, around 11% of births worldwide. We sought to determine whether adolescent mothers are at higher risk of maternal and perinatal adverse outcomes compared with mothers aged 20-24 years in a prospective, population-based observational study of newborn outcomes in low resource settings.MethodsWe undertook a prospective, population-based multi-country research study of all pregnant women in defined geographic areas across 7 sites in six low-middle income countries (Kenya, Zambia, India, Pakistan, Guatemala and Argentina). The study population for this analysis was restricted to women aged 24 years or less, who gave birth to infants of at least 20 weeks' gestation and 500g or more. We compared adverse pregnancy maternal and perinatal outcomes among pregnant adolescents 15-19 years, <15 years, and adults 20-24 years.ResultsA total of 269,273 women were enrolled from January 2010 to December 2013. Of all pregnancies 11.9% (32,097/269,273) were in adolescents 15-19 years, while 0.14% (370/269,273) occurred among girls <15 years. Pregnancy among adolescents 15-19 years ranged from 2% in Pakistan to 26% in Argentina, and adolescent pregnancies <15 year were only observed in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Compared to adults, adolescents did not show increased risk of maternal adverse outcomes. Risks of preterm birth and LBW were significantly higher among both early and older adolescents, with the highest risks observed in the <15 years group. Neonatal and perinatal mortality followed a similar trend in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, with the highest risk in early adolescents, although the differences in this age group were not significant. However, in South Asia the risks of neonatal and perinatal death were not different among adolescents 15-19 years compared to adults.ConclusionsThis study suggests that pregnancy among adolescents is not associated with worse maternal outcomes, but is associated with worse perinatal outcomes, particularly in younger adolescents. However, this may not be the case in regions like South Asia where there are decreasing rates of adolescent pregnancies, concentrated among older adolescents. The increased risks observed among adolescents seems more likely to be associated with biological immaturity, than with socio-economic factors, inadequate antenatal or delivery care.Trial registration numberNCT01073475.

Project description:ObjectiveTo estimate the risk of adverse perinatal outcomes among women with isolated fetal growth restriction from 17 to 22 weeks of gestation.MethodsThis was a retrospective cohort study of all singleton, nonanomalous pregnancies undergoing ultrasonography to assess fetal anatomy between 17 and 22 weeks of gestation at a single center from 2010 to 2014. After excluding patients with fetal structural malformations, chromosomal abnormalities, or identified infectious etiologies, we compared perinatal outcomes between pregnancies with and without fetal growth restriction, defined as estimated fetal weight less than the 10th percentile for gestational age. Our primary outcome was small for gestational age (SGA) at birth, defined as birth weight less than the 10th percentile. Secondary outcomes included preterm delivery at less than 37 and less than 28 weeks of gestation, preeclampsia, abruption, stillbirth, neonatal death, neonatal intensive care unit admission, intraventricular hemorrhage, need for respiratory support, and necrotizing enterocolitis.ResultsOf 12,783 eligible patients, 355 (2.8%) had early second-trimester fetal growth restriction. Risk factors for growth restriction were African American race and tobacco use. Early second-trimester growth restriction was associated with a more than fivefold increase in risk of SGA at birth (36.9% compared with 9.1%, adjusted odds ratio [OR] 5.5, 95% CI 4.3-7.0), stillbirth (2.5% compared with 0.4%, OR 6.2, 95% CI 2.7-12.8), and neonatal death (1.4% compared with 0.3%, OR 5.2, 95% CI 1.6-13.5). Rates of indicated preterm birth at less than 37 weeks of gestation (7.3% compared with 3.3%, OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.5-3.5) and less than 28 weeks of gestation (2.5% compared with 0.2%, OR 10.8, 95% CI 4.5-23.4), neonatal need for respiratory support (16.9% compared with 7.8%, adjusted OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1-2.2), and necrotizing enterocolitis (1.4% compared with 0.2%, OR 7.7, 95% CI 2.3-20.9) were also significantly higher for those with growth restriction. Rates of preeclampsia, abruption, and other neonatal outcomes were not significantly different.ConclusionAlthough fetal growth restriction in the early second trimester occurred in less than 3% of our cohort and most of those with isolated growth restriction did not have adverse outcomes, it is a strong risk factor for SGA, stillbirth, neonatal death, and indicated preterm birth.

Project description:Objective This study aimed to evaluate whether racial and ethnic disparities in adverse perinatal outcomes exist at term.Study design We performed a secondary analysis of a multicenter observational study of 115,502 pregnant patients and their neonates (2008-2011). Singleton, nonanomalous pregnancies delivered from 37 to 41 weeks were included. Race and ethnicity were abstracted from the medical record and categorized as non-Hispanic White (White; referent), non-Hispanic Black (Black), non-Hispanic Asian (Asian), or Hispanic. The primary outcome was an adverse perinatal composite defined as perinatal death, Apgar score < 4 at 5 minutes, ventilator support, hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy, subgaleal hemorrhage, skeletal fracture, infant stay greater than maternal stay (by ≥ 3 days), brachial plexus palsy, or facial nerve palsy.Results Of the 72,117 patients included, 48% were White, 20% Black, 5% Asian, and 26% Hispanic. The unadjusted risk of the primary outcome was highest for neonates of Black patients (3.1%, unadjusted relative risk [uRR] = 1.16, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.30), lowest for neonates of Hispanic patients (2.1%, uRR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.71-0.89), and no different for neonates of Asian (2.6%), compared with those of White patients (2.7%). In the adjusted model including age, body mass index (BMI), smoking, obstetric history, and high-risk pregnancy, differences in risk for the primary outcome were no longer observed for neonates of Black (adjusted relative risk [aRR] = 1.06, 95% CI: 0.94-1.19) and Hispanic (aRR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.81-1.04) patients. Adding insurance to the model lowered the risk for both groups (aRR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.75-0.96 for Black; aRR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.59-0.78 for Hispanic).Conclusion Although neonates of Black patients have the highest frequency of adverse perinatal outcomes at term, after adjustment for sociodemographic factors, this higher risk is no longer observed, suggesting the importance of developing strategies that address social determinants of health to lessen extant health disparities.Key points· Term neonates of Black patients have the highest crude frequency of adverse perinatal outcomes.. · After adjustment for confounders, higher risk for neonates of Black patients is no longer observed.. · Disparities in outcomes are strongly related to insurance status..

Project description:ObjectivesThis systematic review examined available literature on the prognostic accuracy of Doppler ultrasound for adverse perinatal outcomes in low/middle-income countries (LMIC).DesignWe searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library and Scopus from inception to April 2020.SettingObservational or interventional studies from LMICs.ParticipantsSingleton pregnancies of any risk profile.InterventionsUmbilical artery (UA), middle cerebral artery (MCA), cerebroplacental ratio (CPR), uterine artery (UtA), fetal descending aorta (FDA), ductus venosus, umbilical vein and inferior vena cava.Primary and secondary outcome measuresPerinatal death, stillbirth, neonatal death, expedited delivery for fetal distress, meconium-stained amniotic fluid, low birth weight, fetal growth restriction, admission to neonatal intensive care unit, neonatal acidosis, Apgar scores, preterm birth, fetal anaemia, respiratory distress syndrome, length of hospital stay, birth asphyxia and composite adverse perinatal outcomes (CAPO).ResultsWe identified 2825 records, and 30 (including 4977 women) from Africa (40.0%, n=12), Asia (56.7%, n=17) and South America (3.3%, n=01) were included. Many individual studies reported associations and promising predictive values of UA Doppler for various adverse perinatal outcomes mostly in high-risk pregnancies, and moderate to high predictive values of MCA, CPR and UtA Dopplers for CAPO. A few studies suggested that the MCA and FDA may be potent predictors of fetal anaemia. No randomised clinical trial (RCT) was found. Most studies were of suboptimal quality, poorly powered and characterised by wide variations in outcome classifications, the timing for the Doppler tests and study populations.ConclusionLocal evidence to guide how antenatal Doppler ultrasound should be used in LMIC is lacking. Well-designed studies, preferably RCTs, are required. Standardisation of practice and classification of perinatal outcomes across countries, following the international standards, is imperative.Prospero registration numberCRD42019128546.

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Validation of a prognostic model for adverse perinatal health outcomes.

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Validation of a prognostic model for adverse perinatal health outcomes.

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