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Potential Fast COVID-19 Containment With Trehalose.

ABSTRACT: Countries worldwide have confirmed a staggering number of COVID-19 cases, and it is now clear that no country is immune to the SARS-CoV-2 infection. Resource-poor countries with weaker health systems are struggling with epidemics of their own and are now in a more uncertain situation with this rapidly spreading infection. Frontline healthcare workers are succumbing to the infection in their efforts to save lives. There is an urgency to develop treatments for COVID-19, yet there is limited clinical data on the efficacy of potential drug treatments. Countries worldwide implemented a stay-at-home order to "flatten the curve" and relieve the pressure on the health system, but it is uncertain how this will unfold after the economy reopens. Trehalose, a natural glucose disaccharide, is known to impair viral function through the autophagy system. Here, we propose trehalose as a potential preventative treatment for SARS-CoV-2 infection and transmission.

SUBMITTER: Martinon D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7358456 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Potential Fast COVID-19 Containment With Trehalose.

Martinon Daisy D Borges Vanessa F VF Gomez Angela C AC Shimada Kenichi K

Frontiers in immunology 20200707

Countries worldwide have confirmed a staggering number of COVID-19 cases, and it is now clear that no country is immune to the SARS-CoV-2 infection. Resource-poor countries with weaker health systems are struggling with epidemics of their own and are now in a more uncertain situation with this rapidly spreading infection. Frontline healthcare workers are succumbing to the infection in their efforts to save lives. There is an urgency to develop treatments for COVID-19, yet there is limited clinic ...[more]

PMID: 32733488

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Project description:BackgroundWe are currently experiencing an unprecedented challenge, managing and containing an outbreak of a new coronavirus disease known as COVID-19. While China-where the outbreak started-seems to have been able to contain the growth of the epidemic, different outbreaks are nowadays present in multiple countries. Nonetheless, authorities have taken action and implemented containment measures, even if not everything is known.MethodsTo facilitate this task, we have studied the effect of different containment strategies that can be put into effect. Our work referred initially to the situation in Spain as of February 28, 2020, where a few dozens of cases had been detected, but has been updated to match the current situation as of 13 April. We implemented an SEIR metapopulation model that allows tracing explicitly the spatial spread of the disease through data-driven stochastic simulations.ResultsOur results are in line with the most recent recommendations from the World Health Organization, namely, that the best strategy is the early detection and isolation of individuals with symptoms, followed by interventions and public recommendations aimed at reducing the transmissibility of the disease, which, although might not be sufficient for disease eradication, would produce as a second order effect a delay of several days in the raise of the number of infected cases.ConclusionsMany quantitative aspects of the natural history of the disease are still unknown, such as the amount of possible asymptomatic spreading or the role of age in both the susceptibility and mortality of the disease. However, preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be ready for quick and efficacious deployment globally. The scenarios evaluated here through data-driven simulations indicate that measures aimed at reducing individuals' flow are much less effective than others intended for early case identification and isolation. Therefore, resources should be directed towards detecting as many and as fast as possible the new cases and isolate them.

Project description:Since the appearance of the first case of COVID-19 in Morocco on March, 02, 2020, the cumulative number of reported infectious cases continues to increase and, up to date, the peak-time of infection is not reached yet. In this study, we propose a Susceptible-Asymptomatic-Infectious deterministic model to evaluate the impact of compulsory containment imposed in Morocco on March, 21 on the spread of COVID-19 epidemic across the country. The model takes account of the unconfined individuals that continue to work or to leave their home for urgent needs and the existence of infectious asymptomatic and unreported individuals within susceptible population. Furthermore, the model is able to predict the peak-size, peak-time, final size and epidemic duration according to different rates of containment. Advanced knowledge of these details will be of great interest to establish an optimal plan-of-action to control or eradicate the epidemic. Indeed, mitigating and delaying the epidemic peak allow the official health authorities to anticipate and control the spread of COVID-19. Moreover, prediction of the epidemic duration can help the government to predict the end time of containment to avoid consequent social-economic damages as well. Using our model, the basic reproduction number R 0 is estimated to be 2.9949, with CI(2.6729-3.1485), reflecting a high speed of spread of the epidemic. The model shows that the compulsory containment can be efficient if more than 73% of population are confined. In the absence of other efficient measure of control, even with 90% of containment, the end-time is estimated to happen on July, 4, 2020 with 7558 final cumulative cases. Furthermore, a threshold value of containment rate, below which the epidemic duration is postponed, has been determined. Finally, the sensitivity analysis is performed and showed that the COVID-19 dynamics strongly depends on the asymptomatic duration as well as the contact and containment rates. Our previsions can help the government to adjust its plan-of-action to fight the disease and to face the social-economic shock induced by the containment.

Dataset Information

Potential Fast COVID-19 Containment With Trehalose.

Publications

Potential Fast COVID-19 Containment With Trehalose.

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