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Distinct patterns of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in two nearby communities in Wisconsin, USA.

ABSTRACT: Evidence-based public health approaches that minimize the introduction and spread of new SARS-CoV-2 transmission clusters are urgently needed in the United States and other countries struggling with expanding epidemics. Here we analyze 247 full-genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences from two nearby communities in Wisconsin, USA, and find surprisingly distinct patterns of viral spread. Dane County had the 12th known introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States, but this did not lead to descendant community spread. Instead, the Dane County outbreak was seeded by multiple later introductions, followed by limited community spread. In contrast, relatively few introductions in Milwaukee County led to extensive community spread. We present evidence for reduced viral spread in both counties, and limited viral transmission between counties, following the statewide Safer-at-Home public health order, which went into effect 25 March 2020. Our results suggest that early containment efforts suppressed the spread of SARS-CoV-2 within Wisconsin.

SUBMITTER: Moreno GK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7359545 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Distinct patterns of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in two nearby communities in Wisconsin, USA.

Moreno Gage K GK Braun Katarina M KM Riemersma Kasen K KK Martin Michael A MA Halfmann Peter J PJ Crooks Chelsea M CM Prall Trent T Baker David D Baczenas John J JJ Heffron Anna S AS Ramuta Mitchell M Khubbar Manjeet M Weiler Andrea M AM Accola Molly A MA Rehrauer William M WM O'Connor Shelby L SL Safdar Nasia N Pepperell Caitlin S CS Dasu Trivikram T Bhattacharyya Sanjib S Kawaoka Yoshihiro Y Koelle Katia K O'Connor David H DH Friedrich Thomas C TC

medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences 20200710

Evidence-based public health approaches that minimize the introduction and spread of new SARS-CoV-2 transmission clusters are urgently needed in the United States and other countries struggling with expanding epidemics. Here we analyze 247 full-genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences from two nearby communities in Wisconsin, USA, and find surprisingly distinct patterns of viral spread. Dane County had the 12th known introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States, but this did not lead to descendant communi ...[more]

PMID: 32676620

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Project description:BackgroundFace masks have become commonplace across the USA because of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic. Although evidence suggests that masks help to curb the spread of the disease, there is little empirical research at the population level. We investigate the association between self-reported mask-wearing, physical distancing, and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the USA, along with the effect of statewide mandates on mask uptake.MethodsSerial cross-sectional surveys were administered via a web platform to randomly surveyed US individuals aged 13 years and older, to query self-reports of face mask-wearing. Survey responses were combined with instantaneous reproductive number (Rt) estimates from two publicly available sources, the outcome of interest. Measures of physical distancing, community demographics, and other potential sources of confounding (from publicly available sources) were also assessed. We fitted multivariate logistic regression models to estimate the association between mask-wearing and community transmission control (Rt<1). Additionally, mask-wearing in 12 states was evaluated 2 weeks before and after statewide mandates.Findings378 207 individuals responded to the survey between June 3 and July 27, 2020, of which 4186 were excluded for missing data. We observed an increasing trend in reported mask usage across the USA, although uptake varied by geography. A logistic model controlling for physical distancing, population demographics, and other variables found that a 10% increase in self-reported mask-wearing was associated with an increased odds of transmission control (odds ratio 3·53, 95% CI 2·03-6·43). We found that communities with high reported mask-wearing and physical distancing had the highest predicted probability of transmission control. Segmented regression analysis of reported mask-wearing showed no statistically significant change in the slope after mandates were introduced; however, the upward trend in reported mask-wearing was preserved.InterpretationThe widespread reported use of face masks combined with physical distancing increases the odds of SARS-CoV-2 transmission control. Self-reported mask-wearing increased separately from government mask mandates, suggesting that supplemental public health interventions are needed to maximise adoption and help to curb the ongoing epidemic.FundingFlu Lab, Google.org (via the Tides Foundation), National Institutes for Health, National Science Foundation, Morris-Singer Foundation, MOOD, Branco Weiss Fellowship, Ending Pandemics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (USA).

Dataset Information

Distinct patterns of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in two nearby communities in Wisconsin, USA.

Publications

Distinct patterns of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in two nearby communities in Wisconsin, USA.

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