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Effect of COVID-19 on liver transplantation in Korea.

ABSTRACT: COVID-19 is now a pandemic with increasing numbers of cases and deaths. In addition to the economic and social damage caused by COVID-19 outbreak prolongation, damage caused by delayed treatment of other diseases such as severe cirrhosis is also serious. We aimed to describe the effect of COVID-19 on the number of liver transplants (LT) in South Korea. The number of LT performed in Korea during the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak, and the COVID-19 pandemic was compared with the average number of LT performed in the past 5 years. There were 108.5 cases of LT performed per month during the MERS outbreak. It was 11% lower than the average of 122.8 cases per month for the last 5 years. LDLT and DDLT decreased by 13% to 75.3 cases and by 7.5% to 33.2 cases per month during the MERS epidemic, respectively. From January to March 2020 (COVID-19 outbreak), the number of LT did not decrease significantly. The lockdown caused by COVID-19 did not affect the number of liver transplants in Korea. Establishing a safe process and procedure of liver transplantation within safe boundaries can be beneficial in reducing the side effects of lockdown and saving patients' lives.

SUBMITTER: Lee JM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7361242 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Effect of COVID-19 on liver transplantation in Korea.

Lee Jeong-Moo JM

Transplant infectious disease : an official journal of the Transplantation Society 20200713 5

COVID-19 is now a pandemic with increasing numbers of cases and deaths. In addition to the economic and social damage caused by COVID-19 outbreak prolongation, damage caused by delayed treatment of other diseases such as severe cirrhosis is also serious. We aimed to describe the effect of COVID-19 on the number of liver transplants (LT) in South Korea. The number of LT performed in Korea during the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak, and the COVID-19 pandemic was compared with the ...[more]

PMID: 32574408

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Project description:Countries around the world have taken control measures to mitigate the spread of COVID-19, including Korea. Social distancing is considered an essential strategy to reduce transmission in the absence of vaccination or treatment. While interventions have been successful in controlling COVID-19 in Korea, maintaining the current restrictions incurs great social costs. Thus, it is important to analyze the impact of different polices on the spread of the epidemic. To model the COVID-19 outbreak, we use an extended age-structured SEIR model with quarantine and isolation compartments. The model is calibrated to age-specific cumulative confirmed cases provided by the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA). Four control measures-school closure, social distancing, quarantine, and isolation-are investigated. Because the infectiousness of the exposed has been controversial, we study two major scenarios, considering contributions to infection of the exposed, the quarantined, and the isolated. Assuming the transmission rate would increase more than 1.7 times after the end of social distancing, a second outbreak is expected in the first scenario. The epidemic threshold for increase of contacts between teenagers after school reopening is 3.3 times, which brings the net reproduction number to 1. The threshold values are higher in the second scenario. If the average time taken until isolation and quarantine reduces from three days to two, cumulative cases are reduced by 60% and 47% in the first scenario, respectively. Meanwhile, the reduction is 33% and 41%, respectively, for rapid isolation and quarantine in the second scenario. Without social distancing, a second wave is possible, irrespective of whether we assume risk of infection by the exposed. In the non-infectivity of the exposed scenario, early detection and isolation are significantly more effective than quarantine. Furthermore, quarantining the exposed is as important as isolating the infectious when we assume that the exposed also contribute to infection.

Dataset Information

Effect of COVID-19 on liver transplantation in Korea.

Publications

Effect of COVID-19 on liver transplantation in Korea.

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