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Investigating SOFA, delta-SOFA and MPM-III for mortality prediction among critically ill patients at a private tertiary hospital ICU in Kenya: A retrospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Outcomes in well-resourced, intensive care units (ICUs) in Kenya are thought to be comparable to those in high-income countries (HICs) but risk-adjusted mortality data is unavailable. We undertook an evaluation of the Aga Khan University Hospital, Nairobi ICU to analyze patient clinical-demographic characteristics, compare the performance of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), delta-SOFA at 48 hours and Mortality Prediction Model-III (MPM-III) mortality prediction systems, and identify factors associated with increased risk of mortality. METHODS:A retrospective cohort study was conducted of adult patients admitted to the ICU between January 2015 and September 2017. SOFA and MPM-III scores were determined at admission and SOFA repeated at 48 hours. RESULTS:Approximately 33% of patients did not meet ICU admission criteria. Mortality among the population of critically ill patients in the ICU was 31.7%, most of whom were male (61.4%) with a median age of 53.4 years. High adjusted odds of mortality were found among critically ill patients with leukemia (aOR 6.32, p<0.01), tuberculosis (aOR 3.96, p<0.01), post-cardiac arrest (aOR 3.57, p<0.01), admissions from the step-down unit (aOR 3.13, p<0.001), acute kidney injury (aOR 2.97, p<0.001) and metastatic cancer (aOR 2.45, p = 0.04). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve of admission SOFA was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.73-0.81), MPM-III 0.74 (95% CI, 0.69-0.79), delta-SOFA 0.69 (95% CI, 0.63-0.75) and 48-hour SOFA 0.83 (95% CI, 0.79-0.87). The difference between SOFA at 48 hours and admission SOFA, MPM-III and delta-SOFA was statistically significant (chi2 = 17.1, 24.2 and 26.5 respectively; p<0.001). Admission SOFA, MPM-III and 48-hour SOFA were well calibrated (p >0.05) while delta-SOFA was borderline (p = 0.05). CONCLUSION:Mortality among the critically ill was higher than expected in this well-resourced ICU. 48-hour SOFA performed better than admission SOFA, MPM-III and delta-SOFA in our cohort. While a large proportion of patients did not meet admission criteria but were boarded in the ICU, critically ill patients stepped-up from the step-down unit were unlikely to survive. Patients admitted following a cardiac arrest, and those with advanced disease such as leukemia, stage-4 HIV and metastatic cancer, had particularly poor outcomes. Policies for fair allocation of beds, protocol-driven admission criteria and appropriate case selection could contribute to lowering the risk of mortality among the critically ill to a level on par with HICs.

SUBMITTER: Lukoko LN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7365402 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Investigating SOFA, delta-SOFA and MPM-III for mortality prediction among critically ill patients at a private tertiary hospital ICU in Kenya: A retrospective cohort study.

Lukoko Lillian N LN Kussin Peter S PS Adam Rodney D RD Orwa James J Waweru-Siika Wangari W

PloS one 20200716 7

<h4>Background</h4>Outcomes in well-resourced, intensive care units (ICUs) in Kenya are thought to be comparable to those in high-income countries (HICs) but risk-adjusted mortality data is unavailable. We undertook an evaluation of the Aga Khan University Hospital, Nairobi ICU to analyze patient clinical-demographic characteristics, compare the performance of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), delta-SOFA at 48 hours and Mortality Prediction Model-III (MPM-III) mortality prediction syst ...[more]

PMID: 32673363

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Project description:BackgroundIllness predictive scoring systems are significant and meaningful adjuncts of patient management in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). They assist in predicting patient outcomes, improve clinical decision making and provide insight into the effectiveness of care and management of patients while optimizing the use of hospital resources. We evaluated mortality predictive performance of Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS 3) and Mortality Probability Models (MPM0-III) and compared their performance in predicting outcome as well as identifying disease pattern and factors associated with increased mortality.MethodsThis was a retrospective cohort study of adult patients admitted to the ICU of the Aga Khan Hospital, Dar- es- Salaam, Tanzania between August 2018 and April 2020. Demographics, clinical characteristics, outcomes, source of admission, primary admission category, length of stay and the support provided with the worst physiological data within the first hour of ICU admission were extracted. SAPS 3 and MPM0-III scores were calculated using an online web-based calculator. The performance of each model was assessed by discrimination and calibration. Discrimination between survivors and non-survivors was assessed by the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) and calibration was estimated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.ResultsA total of 331 patients were enrolled in the study with a median age of 58 years (IQR 43-71), most of whom were male (n = 208, 62.8%), of African origin (n = 178, 53.8%) and admitted from the emergency department (n = 306, 92.4%). In- hospital mortality of critically ill patients was 16.1%. Discrimination was very good for all models, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve for SAPS 3 and MPM0-III was 0.89 (95% CI [0.844-0.935]) and 0.90 (95% CI [0.864-0.944]) respectively. Calibration as calculated by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed good calibration for SAPS 3 and MPM0-III with Chi- square values of 4.61 and 5.08 respectively and P-Value > 0.05.ConclusionBoth SAPS 3 and MPM0-III performed well in predicting mortality and outcome in our cohort of patients admitted to the intensive care unit of a private tertiary hospital. The in-hospital mortality of critically ill patients was lower compared to studies done in other intensive care units in tertiary referral hospitals within Tanzania.

Project description:BackgroundThis study aimed to investigate the association between preadmission glucocorticoid (GC) therapy and 30-day mortality in critically ill patients following admission to an intensive care unit (ICU). We aimed to determine whether this association differed according to daily GC dosage and type. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients admitted to a single tertiary academic hospital ICU from January 2012 to December 2017. We classified the patients regularly undergoing oral GC therapy as preadmission GC users, and those with no history of GC use were classified as non-GC users.ResultsThe study included 24,929 patients, of whom 816 (3.3%) were preadmission GC users. Thirty-day mortality in preadmission GC users (173 of 816 patients) was 21.2% compared to 8.8% (2113 of 24,113 patients) in non-GC users. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that preadmission GC users had a 1.62-fold increase in 30-day mortality compared to non-GC users [hazard ratio (HR) 1.62, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29-2.03, P?<?0.001]. When comparing preadmission GC users with diabetes mellitus to non-GC users, a 2.29-fold increase in 30-day mortality was noted (HR 2.29, 95% CI 1.08-4.86, P?=?0.031). In the sensitivity analysis, compared to non-GC users, daily dosages of???5 and?>?5 mg of prednisolone in preadmission GC users showed 1.45-fold (HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.03-2.03, P?=?0.033) and 1.67-fold (HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.25-2.24, P?=?0.001) increases, respectively, in 30-day mortality after ICU admission. Moreover, prednisolone, methylprednisolone, and dexamethasone users in the preadmission GC users group showed 1.56-fold (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.21-2.01, P?=?0.001), 1.90-fold (HR 1.90, 95% CI 1.12-3.25, P?=?0.018), and 1.30-fold (HR 1.30, 95% CI 1.05-1.50, P?=?0.042) increases, respectively, in 30-day mortality compared to non-GC users.ConclusionPreadmission GC use among critically ill patients was associated with an increased 30-day mortality after ICU admission compared to non-GC use. This association was more prevalent in preadmission GC users with diabetes mellitus and in preadmission GC users who took?>?5 mg/day of prednisolone and methylprednisolone.

Dataset Information

Investigating SOFA, delta-SOFA and MPM-III for mortality prediction among critically ill patients at a private tertiary hospital ICU in Kenya: A retrospective cohort study.

Publications

Investigating SOFA, delta-SOFA and MPM-III for mortality prediction among critically ill patients at a private tertiary hospital ICU in Kenya: A retrospective cohort study.

Similar Datasets

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