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Evidence That Higher Temperatures Are Associated With a Marginally Lower Incidence of COVID-19 Cases.

ABSTRACT: Seasonal variations in COVID-19 incidence have been suggested as a potentially important factor in the future trajectory of the pandemic. Using global line-list data on COVID-19 cases reported until 17th of March 2020 and global gridded weather data, we assessed the effects of air temperature and relative humidity on the daily incidence of confirmed COVID-19 local cases at the subnational level (first-level administrative divisions). After adjusting for surveillance capacity and time since first imported case, average temperature had a statistically significant, negative association with COVID-19 incidence for temperatures of -15°C and above. However, temperature only explained a relatively modest amount of the total variation in COVID-19 cases. The effect of relative humidity was not statistically significant. These results suggest that warmer weather may modestly reduce the rate of spread of COVID-19, but anticipation of a substantial decline in transmission due to temperature alone with onset of summer in the northern hemisphere, or in tropical regions, is not warranted by these findings.

SUBMITTER: Meyer A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7365860 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Evidence That Higher Temperatures Are Associated With a Marginally Lower Incidence of COVID-19 Cases.

Meyer Anne A Sadler Rohan R Faverjon Céline C Cameron Angus Robert AR Bannister-Tyrrell Melanie M

Frontiers in public health 20200710

Seasonal variations in COVID-19 incidence have been suggested as a potentially important factor in the future trajectory of the pandemic. Using global line-list data on COVID-19 cases reported until 17th of March 2020 and global gridded weather data, we assessed the effects of air temperature and relative humidity on the daily incidence of confirmed COVID-19 local cases at the subnational level (first-level administrative divisions). After adjusting for surveillance capacity and time since first ...[more]

PMID: 32754568

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Project description:OBJECTIVE:Despite huge global, national, and local preventive measures including travel restriction, social distancing, and quarantines, the outbreak of novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) develops the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 emerging from Wuhan, China, took only three months to cover >200 countries worldwide by infecting more than 2.4 million people and killing more than 150,000 people. Although this infection at the early stage creates seasonal flu-like symptoms with a higher illness, it eventually causes a higher mortality. Epidemiological studies not only find the causes of many health issues but also suggest preventive measures. This study aimed to see the link between environment temperature and COVID-19 cases. STUDY DESIGN:The monthly average environment temperature (MAET) and various COVID-19 cases of a country were collected and analyzed to see the relationship between these parameters. METHODS:Univariate analysis and statistical modeling were used to determine the relationship between environment temperature and different COVID-19 cases. RESULTS:This study found that the majorities of the countries having higher COVID-19 cases are located in the higher latitude (colder region) in the globe. As of 20th April data available, statistical analyses by various methods have found that strong negative correlations with statistical significance exist between MAET and several COVID-19 cases including total cases, active cases, and cases per million of a country (Spearman correlation coefficients were -0.45, -0.42, and -0.50 for total cases, active cases, and cases/per million, respectively). Analysis by the statistical log-linear regression model further supports that the chance of patients to contract COVID-19 is less in warmer countries than in colder countries. CONCLUSION:This pilot study proposes that cold environment may be an additional risk factor for COVID-19 cases.

Project description:BackgroundHigher flavonoid intakes are hypothesized to confer protection against type 2 diabetes mellitus.ObjectivesWe aimed to 1) investigate associations between flavonoid intakes and diabetes, 2) examine the mediating impact of body fat, and 3) identify subpopulations that may receive the greatest benefit from higher flavonoid intakes in participants of the Danish Diet, Cancer, and Health Study followed up for 23 y.MethodsCross-sectional associations between baseline flavonoid intake, estimated using FFQs and the Phenol Explorer database, and body fat, estimated by bioelectrical impedance, were assessed using multivariable-adjusted linear regression models. Nonlinear associations between flavonoid intake and incident diabetes were examined using restricted cubic splines with multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models.ResultsAmong 54,787 participants (median age: 56 y; IQR: 52-60 y; 47.3% men), 6700 individuals were diagnosed with diabetes. Participants in the highest total flavonoid intake quintile (median, 1202 mg/d) had a 1.52 kg lower body fat (95% CI: -1.74, -1.30 kg) and a 19% lower risk of diabetes (HR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.75, 0.87) after multivariable adjustments and compared with participants in the lowest intake quintile (median: 174 mg/d). Body fat mediated 57% (95% CI: 42, 83%) of the association between flavonoid intake and incident diabetes. Of the flavonoid subclasses, moderate to high intakes of flavonols, flavanol monomers, flavanol oligo + polymers, and anthocyanins were significantly associated with a lower risk of diabetes. Although associations were not modified by sex, smoking status, BMI, or physical activity (Pinteraction > 0.05 for all), findings on an absolute scale suggest that those at a higher risk (those with obesity) may benefit the most from a higher flavonoid intake.ConclusionsThe findings reported in this study suggest that a diet abundant in flavonoid-rich foods may help ameliorate diabetes risk, in part through a reduction in body fat.

Project description:Combined sewer systems (CSS) are water management systems that collect and transport stormwater and sewer water in the same pipes. During large storm events, stormwater runoff may exceed the capacity of the system and lead to combined sewer overflows (CSOs), where untreated sewer and stormwater are released into the environment. Though current literature reveals inconclusive evidence regarding the infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater, detection of infectious SARS-CoV-2 in urine and feces of COVID-19 patients led to concerns that areas contaminated by CSOs may be a reservoir of SARS-CoV-2 and may result in illness after the ingestion and/or inhalation of contaminated splashes, droplets, or aerosols. We investigated the association between COVID-19 incidence and CSSs and whether this association differed by precipitation and percent impervious surfaces as a proxy for possible CSOs. We fitted a quasi-Poisson regression model to estimate the change in percentage of incidence rate of COVID-19 cases in counties with a CSS compared to those without, adjusting for potential confounders (i.e., state, population density, date of first documented COVID-19 case, social vulnerability, and percent vaccinated) and including interaction variables between CSS, precipitation, and impervious surfaces. Our findings suggest that heavy precipitation in combination with high percentages of imperviousness is associated with higher incidences of COVID-19 cases in counties with a CSS compared to in counties without (p-value = 2.5e-9). For example, CSS-counties with precipitation of 10 in/month may observe a higher incidence in COVID-19 cases compared to non-CSS counties if their impervious surfaces exceed 33.5% [95%CI: 23.0%, 60.0%]. We theorize that more COVID-19 cases may be seen in counties with a CSS, heavy precipitation, and high percentages of impervious surfaces because of the possible increase in frequency and severity of CSOs. The results suggest links between climate change, urbanization, and COVID-19.

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Evidence That Higher Temperatures Are Associated With a Marginally Lower Incidence of COVID-19 Cases.

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Evidence That Higher Temperatures Are Associated With a Marginally Lower Incidence of COVID-19 Cases.

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