Dataset Information

Predicting Current Glycated Hemoglobin Levels in Adults From Electronic Health Records: Validation of Multiple Logistic Regression Algorithm.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Electronic health record (EHR) systems generate large datasets that can significantly enrich the development of medical predictive models. Several attempts have been made to investigate the effect of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) elevation on the prediction of diabetes onset. However, there is still a need for validation of these models using EHR data collected from different populations. OBJECTIVE:The aim of this study is to perform a replication study to validate, evaluate, and identify the strengths and weaknesses of replicating a predictive model that employed multiple logistic regression with EHR data to forecast the levels of HbA1c. The original study used data from a population in the United States and this differentiated replication used a population in Saudi Arabia. METHODS:A total of 3 models were developed and compared with the model created in the original study. The models were trained and tested using a larger dataset from Saudi Arabia with 36,378 records. The 10-fold cross-validation approach was used for measuring the performance of the models. RESULTS:Applying the method employed in the original study achieved an accuracy of 74% to 75% when using the dataset collected from Saudi Arabia, compared with 77% obtained from using the population from the United States. The results also show a different ranking of importance for the predictors between the original study and the replication. The order of importance for the predictors with our population, from the most to the least importance, is age, random blood sugar, estimated glomerular filtration rate, total cholesterol, non-high-density lipoprotein, and body mass index. CONCLUSIONS:This replication study shows that direct use of the models (calculators) created using multiple logistic regression to predict the level of HbA1c may not be appropriate for all populations. This study reveals that the weighting of the predictors needs to be calibrated to the population used. However, the study does confirm that replicating the original study using a different population can help with predicting the levels of HbA1c by using the predictors that are routinely collected and stored in hospital EHR systems.

SUBMITTER: Alhassan Z

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7367516 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting Current Glycated Hemoglobin Levels in Adults From Electronic Health Records: Validation of Multiple Logistic Regression Algorithm.

Alhassan Zakhriya Z Budgen David D Alshammari Riyad R Al Moubayed Noura N

JMIR medical informatics 20200703 7

<h4>Background</h4>Electronic health record (EHR) systems generate large datasets that can significantly enrich the development of medical predictive models. Several attempts have been made to investigate the effect of glycated hemoglobin (HbA<sub>1c</sub>) elevation on the prediction of diabetes onset. However, there is still a need for validation of these models using EHR data collected from different populations.<h4>Objective</h4>The aim of this study is to perform a replication study to vali ...[more]

PMID: 32618575

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Electronic, personalized clinical decision support tools to optimize glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) screening are lacking. Current screening guidelines are based on simple, categorical rules developed for populations of patients. Although personalized diabetes risk calculators have been created, none are designed to predict current glycemic status using structured data commonly available in electronic health records (EHRs). OBJECTIVE:The goal of this project was to create a mathematical equation for predicting the probability of current elevations in HbA1c (≥5.7%) among patients with no history of hyperglycemia using readily available variables that will allow integration with EHR systems. METHODS:The reduced model was compared head-to-head with calculators created by Baan and Griffin. Ten-fold cross-validation was used to calculate the bias-adjusted prediction accuracy of the new model. Statistical analyses were performed in R version 3.2.5 (The R Foundation for Statistical Computing) using the rms (Regression Modeling Strategies) package. RESULTS:The final model to predict an elevated HbA1c based on 22,635 patient records contained the following variables in order from most to least importance according to their impact on the discriminating accuracy of the model: age, body mass index, random glucose, race, serum non-high-density lipoprotein, serum total cholesterol, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and smoking status. The new model achieved a concordance statistic of 0.77 which was statistically significantly better than prior models. The model appeared to be well calibrated according to a plot of the predicted probabilities versus the prevalence of the outcome at different probabilities. CONCLUSIONS:The calculator created for predicting the probability of having an elevated HbA1c significantly outperformed the existing calculators. The personalized prediction model presented in this paper could improve the efficiency of HbA1c screening initiatives.

Project description:BackgroundPredicting the risk of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) elevation can help identify patients with the potential for developing serious chronic health problems, such as diabetes. Early preventive interventions based upon advanced predictive models using electronic health records data for identifying such patients can ultimately help provide better health outcomes.ObjectiveOur study investigated the performance of predictive models to forecast HbA1c elevation levels by employing several machine learning models. We also examined the use of patient electronic health record longitudinal data in the performance of the predictive models. Explainable methods were employed to interpret the decisions made by the black box models.MethodsThis study employed multiple logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine, and logistic regression models, as well as a deep learning model (multilayer perceptron) to classify patients with normal (<5.7%) and elevated (≥5.7%) levels of HbA1c. We also integrated current visit data with historical (longitudinal) data from previous visits. Explainable machine learning methods were used to interrogate the models and provide an understanding of the reasons behind the decisions made by the models. All models were trained and tested using a large data set from Saudi Arabia with 18,844 unique patient records.ResultsThe machine learning models achieved promising results for predicting current HbA1c elevation risk. When coupled with longitudinal data, the machine learning models outperformed the multiple logistic regression model used in the comparative study. The multilayer perceptron model achieved an accuracy of 83.22% for the area under receiver operating characteristic curve when used with historical data. All models showed a close level of agreement on the contribution of random blood sugar and age variables with and without longitudinal data.ConclusionsThis study shows that machine learning models can provide promising results for the task of predicting current HbA1c levels (≥5.7% or less). Using patients' longitudinal data improved the performance and affected the relative importance for the predictors used. The models showed results that are consistent with comparable studies.

Project description:PurposeChronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP) can be classified into eosinophilic CRSwNP (eCRSwNP) and non-eosinophilic CRSwNP (non-eCRSwNP) by tissue biopsy, which is difficult to perform preoperatively. Clinical biomarkers have predictive value for the classification of CRSwNP. We aimed to evaluate the application of artificial neural network (ANN) modeling in distinguishing different endotypes of CRSwNP based on clinical biomarkers.MethodsClinical parameters were collected from 109 CRSwNP patients, and their predictive ability was analyzed. ANN and logistic regression (LR) models were developed in the training group (72 patients) and further tested in the test group (37 patients). The output variable was the diagnosis of eCRSwNP, defined as tissue eosinophil count > 10 per high-power field. The receiver operating characteristics curve was used to assess model performance.ResultsA total of 15 clinical features from 60 healthy controls, 60 eCRSwNP and 49 non-eCRSwNP were selected as candidate predictors. Nasal nitric oxide levels, peripheral eosinophil absolute count, total immunoglobulin E, and ratio of bilateral computed tomography scores for the ethmoid sinus and maxillary sinus were identified as important features for modeling. Two ANN models based on 4 and 15 clinical features were developed to predict eCRSwNP, which showed better performance, with the area under the receiver operator characteristics significantly higher than those from the respective LR models (0.976 vs. 0.902, P = 0.048; 0.970 vs. 0.845, P = 0.011). All ANN models had better fits than single variable prediction models (all P < 0.05), and ANN model 1 had the best predictive performance among all models.ConclusionsMachine learning models assist clinicians in predicting endotypes of nasal polyps before invasive detection. The ANN model has the potential to predict eCRSwNP with high sensitivity and specificity, and is superior to the LR model. ANNs are valuable for optimizing personalized patient management.

Project description:BackgroundStroke is an important clinical outcome in cardiovascular research. However, the ascertainment of incident stroke is typically accomplished via time-consuming manual chart abstraction. Current phenotyping efforts using electronic health records for stroke focus on case ascertainment rather than incident disease, which requires knowledge of the temporal sequence of events.ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to develop a machine learning-based phenotyping algorithm for incident stroke ascertainment based on diagnosis codes, procedure codes, and clinical concepts extracted from clinical notes using natural language processing.MethodsThe algorithm was trained and validated using an existing epidemiology cohort consisting of 4914 patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) with manually curated incident stroke events. Various combinations of feature sets and machine learning classifiers were compared. Using a heuristic rule based on the composition of concepts and codes, we further detected the stroke subtype (ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack or hemorrhagic stroke) of each identified stroke. The algorithm was further validated using a cohort (n=150) stratified sampled from a population in Olmsted County, Minnesota (N=74,314).ResultsAmong the 4914 patients with AF, 740 had validated incident stroke events. The best-performing stroke phenotyping algorithm used clinical concepts, diagnosis codes, and procedure codes as features in a random forest classifier. Among patients with stroke codes in the general population sample, the best-performing model achieved a positive predictive value of 86% (43/50; 95% CI 0.74-0.93) and a negative predictive value of 96% (96/100). For subtype identification, we achieved an accuracy of 83% in the AF cohort and 80% in the general population sample.ConclusionsWe developed and validated a machine learning-based algorithm that performed well for identifying incident stroke and for determining type of stroke. The algorithm also performed well on a sample from a general population, further demonstrating its generalizability and potential for adoption by other institutions.

Project description:BackgroundPrecision oncology has the potential to leverage clinical and genomic data in advancing disease prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. A key research area focuses on the early detection of primary cancers and potential prediction of cancers of unknown primary in order to facilitate optimal treatment decisions.ObjectiveThis study presents a methodology to harmonize phenotypic and genetic data features to classify primary cancer types and predict cancers of unknown primaries.MethodsWe extracted genetic data elements from oncology genetic reports of 1011 patients with cancer and their corresponding phenotypical data from Mayo Clinic's electronic health records. We modeled both genetic and electronic health record data with HL7 Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources. The semantic web Resource Description Framework was employed to generate the network-based data representation (ie, patient-phenotypic-genetic network). Based on the Resource Description Framework data graph, Node2vec graph-embedding algorithm was applied to generate features. Multiple machine learning and deep learning backbone models were compared for cancer prediction performance.ResultsWith 6 machine learning tasks designed in the experiment, we demonstrated the proposed method achieved favorable results in classifying primary cancer types (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] 96.56% for all 9 cancer predictions on average based on the cross-validation) and predicting unknown primaries (AUROC 80.77% for all 8 cancer predictions on average for real-patient validation). To demonstrate the interpretability, 17 phenotypic and genetic features that contributed the most to the prediction of each cancer were identified and validated based on a literature review.ConclusionsAccurate prediction of cancer types can be achieved with existing electronic health record data with satisfactory precision. The integration of genetic reports improves prediction, illustrating the translational values of incorporating genetic tests early at the diagnosis stage for patients with cancer.

Dataset Information

Predicting Current Glycated Hemoglobin Levels in Adults From Electronic Health Records: Validation of Multiple Logistic Regression Algorithm.

Publications

Predicting Current Glycated Hemoglobin Levels in Adults From Electronic Health Records: Validation of Multiple Logistic Regression Algorithm.

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