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Development and Validation of the Quick COVID-19 Severity Index: A Prognostic Tool for Early Clinical Decompensation.

ABSTRACT: STUDY OBJECTIVE:The goal of this study is to create a predictive, interpretable model of early hospital respiratory failure among emergency department (ED) patients admitted with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS:This was an observational, retrospective, cohort study from a 9-ED health system of admitted adult patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (COVID-19) and an oxygen requirement less than or equal to 6 L/min. We sought to predict respiratory failure within 24 hours of admission as defined by oxygen requirement of greater than 10 L/min by low-flow device, high-flow device, noninvasive or invasive ventilation, or death. Predictive models were compared with the Elixhauser Comorbidity Index, quick Sequential [Sepsis-related] Organ Failure Assessment, and the CURB-65 pneumonia severity score. RESULTS:During the study period, from March 1 to April 27, 2020, 1,792 patients were admitted with COVID-19, 620 (35%) of whom had respiratory failure in the ED. Of the remaining 1,172 admitted patients, 144 (12.3%) met the composite endpoint within the first 24 hours of hospitalization. On the independent test cohort, both a novel bedside scoring system, the quick COVID-19 Severity Index (area under receiver operating characteristic curve mean 0.81 [95% confidence interval {CI} 0.73 to 0.89]), and a machine-learning model, the COVID-19 Severity Index (mean 0.76 [95% CI 0.65 to 0.86]), outperformed the Elixhauser mortality index (mean 0.61 [95% CI 0.51 to 0.70]), CURB-65 (0.50 [95% CI 0.40 to 0.60]), and quick Sequential [Sepsis-related] Organ Failure Assessment (0.59 [95% CI 0.50 to 0.68]). A low quick COVID-19 Severity Index score was associated with a less than 5% risk of respiratory decompensation in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION:A significant proportion of admitted COVID-19 patients progress to respiratory failure within 24 hours of admission. These events are accurately predicted with bedside respiratory examination findings within a simple scoring system.

SUBMITTER: Haimovich AD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7373004 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development and Validation of the Quick COVID-19 Severity Index: A Prognostic Tool for Early Clinical Decompensation.

Haimovich Adrian D AD Ravindra Neal G NG Stoytchev Stoytcho S Young H Patrick HP Wilson Francis P FP van Dijk David D Schulz Wade L WL Taylor R Andrew RA

Annals of emergency medicine 20200721 4

<h4>Study objective</h4>The goal of this study is to create a predictive, interpretable model of early hospital respiratory failure among emergency department (ED) patients admitted with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).<h4>Methods</h4>This was an observational, retrospective, cohort study from a 9-ED health system of admitted adult patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (COVID-19) and an oxygen requirement less than or equal to 6 L/min. We sought to predict respiratory ...[more]

PMID: 33012378

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Project description:BackgroundDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, novel digital health technologies have the potential to improve our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19, improve care delivery, and produce better health outcomes. The National Institutes of Health called on digital health leaders to contribute to a high-quality data repository that will support researchers to make discoveries that are otherwise not possible with small, limited data sets.ObjectiveTo this end, we seek to develop a COVID-19 digital biomarker for early detection of physiological exacerbation or decompensation. We propose the development and validation of a COVID-19 decompensation Index (CDI) in a 2-phase study that builds on existing wearable biosensor-derived analytics generated by physIQ's end-to-end cloud platform for continuous physiological monitoring with wearable biosensors. This effort serves to achieve two primary objectives: (1) to collect adequate data to help develop the CDI and (2) to collect rich deidentified clinical data correlating with outcomes and symptoms related to COVID-19 progression. Our secondary objectives include evaluation of the feasibility and usability of pinpointIQ, a digital platform through which data are gathered, analyzed, and displayed.MethodsThis is a prospective, nonrandomized, open-label, 2-phase study. Phase I will involve data collection for the digital data hub of the National Institutes of Health as well as data to support the preliminary development of the CDI. Phase II will involve data collection for the hub and contribute to continued refinement and validation of the CDI. While this study will focus on the development of a CDI, the digital platform will also be evaluated for feasibility and usability while clinicians deliver care to continuously monitored patients enrolled in the study.ResultsOur target CDI will be a binary classifier trained to distinguish participants with and those without decompensation. The primary performance metric for CDI will be the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with a minimum performance criterion of ≥0.75 (α=.05; power [1-β]=0.80). Furthermore, we will determine the sex or gender and race or ethnicity of the participants, which would account for differences in the CDI performance, as well as the lead time-time to predict decompensation-and its relationship with the ultimate disease severity based on the World Health Organization COVID-19 ordinal scale.ConclusionsUsing machine learning techniques on a large data set of patients with COVID-19 could provide valuable insights into the pathophysiology of COVID-19 and a digital biomarker for COVID-19 decompensation. Through this study, we intend to develop a tool that can uniquely reflect physiological data of a diverse population and contribute to high-quality data that will help researchers better understand COVID-19.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT04575532; https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04575532.International registered report identifier (irrid)DERR1-10.2196/27271.

Project description:BackgroundThe rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) revealed significant constraints in critical care capacity. In anticipation of subsequent waves, reliable prediction of disease severity is essential for critical care capacity management and may enable earlier targeted interventions to improve patient outcomes. The purpose of this study is to develop and externally validate a prognostic model/clinical tool for predicting COVID-19 critical disease at presentation to medical care.MethodsThis is a retrospective study of a prognostic model for the prediction of COVID-19 critical disease where critical disease was defined as ICU admission, ventilation, and/or death. The derivation cohort was used to develop a multivariable logistic regression model. Covariates included patient comorbidities, presenting vital signs, and laboratory values. Model performance was assessed on the validation cohort by concordance statistics. The model was developed with consecutive patients with COVID-19 who presented to University of California Irvine Medical Center in Orange County, California. External validation was performed with a random sample of patients with COVID-19 at Emory Healthcare in Atlanta, Georgia.ResultsOf a total 3208 patients tested in the derivation cohort, 9% (299/3028) were positive for COVID-19. Clinical data including past medical history and presenting laboratory values were available for 29% (87/299) of patients (median age, 48 years [range, 21-88 years]; 64% [36/55] male). The most common comorbidities included obesity (37%, 31/87), hypertension (37%, 32/87), and diabetes (24%, 24/87). Critical disease was present in 24% (21/87). After backward stepwise selection, the following factors were associated with greatest increased risk of critical disease: number of comorbidities, body mass index, respiratory rate, white blood cell count, % lymphocytes, serum creatinine, lactate dehydrogenase, high sensitivity troponin I, ferritin, procalcitonin, and C-reactive protein. Of a total of 40 patients in the validation cohort (median age, 60 years [range, 27-88 years]; 55% [22/40] male), critical disease was present in 65% (26/40). Model discrimination in the validation cohort was high (concordance statistic: 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.87-1.01). A web-based tool was developed to enable clinicians to input patient data and view likelihood of critical disease.Conclusions and relevanceWe present a model which accurately predicted COVID-19 critical disease risk using comorbidities and presenting vital signs and laboratory values, on derivation and validation cohorts from two different institutions. If further validated on additional cohorts of patients, this model/clinical tool may provide useful prognostication of critical care needs.

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Development and Validation of the Quick COVID-19 Severity Index: A Prognostic Tool for Early Clinical Decompensation.

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Development and Validation of the Quick COVID-19 Severity Index: A Prognostic Tool for Early Clinical Decompensation.

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