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Prediction of Prolonged ICU Stay in Cardiac Surgery Patients as a Useful Method to Identify Nutrition Risk in Cardiac Surgery Patients: A Post Hoc Analysis of a Prospective Observational Study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Cardiovascular surgery patients with a prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) stay may benefit most from early nutrition support. Using established scoring systems for nutrition assessment and operative risk stratification, we aimed to develop a model to predict a prolonged ICU stay ?5 days in order to identify patients who will benefit from early nutrition interventions. METHODS:This is a retrospective analysis of a prospective observational study of patients undergoing elective valvular, coronary artery bypass grafting, or combined cardiac surgery. The nutrition risk was assessed by well-established screening tools. Patients' preoperative EuroSCORE (European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation), primary disease, and intraoperative cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) time were included as independent variables in a multivariate logistic regression analysis to predict a prolonged ICU stay (>4 days). RESULTS:The number of cardiac surgery patients included was 1193. Multivariate analysis revealed that for prediction of ICU stay >4 days, both Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (area under the curve (AUC): 0.716, P = .020) and Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) score (AUC: 0.715, P = .037) were significant, whereas for prediction of ICU stay >5 days, only the MNA score showed significant results (AUC: 0.762, P = .011). CONCLUSION:Present data provide first evidence about the combined use of EuroSCORE, primary disease, CPB time, and nutrition risk screening tools for prediction of prolonged ICU stay in cardiac surgery patients. If prospectively evaluated in adequately designed studies, this model may help to identify patients with prolonged ICU stay to initiate early postoperative nutrition therapy and thus, facilitate an enhanced recovery.

SUBMITTER: Stoppe C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7379574 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prediction of Prolonged ICU Stay in Cardiac Surgery Patients as a Useful Method to Identify Nutrition Risk in Cardiac Surgery Patients: A Post Hoc Analysis of a Prospective Observational Study.

Stoppe Christian C Ney Julia J Lomivorotov Vladimir V VV Efremov Sergey M SM Benstoem Carina C Hill Aileen A Nesterova Ekaterina E Laaf Elena E Goetzenich Andreas A McDonald Bernard B Peine Arne A Marx Gernot G Fehnle Karl K Heyland Daren K DK

JPEN. Journal of parenteral and enteral nutrition 20181202 6

<h4>Background</h4>Cardiovascular surgery patients with a prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) stay may benefit most from early nutrition support. Using established scoring systems for nutrition assessment and operative risk stratification, we aimed to develop a model to predict a prolonged ICU stay ≥5 days in order to identify patients who will benefit from early nutrition interventions.<h4>Methods</h4>This is a retrospective analysis of a prospective observational study of patients undergoing e ...[more]

PMID: 30506711

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Project description:In this study, we performed a retrospective and prospective study of preoperative predictors of the length of stay (LOS) in three groups of surgical patients and conducted a clinical retrospective study of the current research status of preoperative predictors of LOS prolongation in three groups of patients under ERAS (enhanced recovery after surgery) mode, such as patient characteristics and comorbidities. Information such as patients' exercise preferences, exercise time, frequency and duration, footwear, location of knee osteoarthritis, whether there is a past history of knee injury, and smoking and drinking history was collected, and the research data of 312 patients undergoing the three operations were analyzed by SPSS. Meniscal injury-knee arthroscopy sample included a total of 104 people. Surgical sample for anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction included a total of 100 subjects. Knee osteoarthritis-knee replacement surgery sample included 148 people who were divided into two groups in a ratio of 1 : 1: one group used Mailuo Shutong pills during hospitalization (intervention group) and the other group did not (control group). The research conclusions are as follows. Meniscal Knee Arthroscopy. (1) Samples from different causes of injury showed significant differences for all injured sites. (2) Samples with different smoking and drinking histories all showed significant differences for the causes of injury. (3) Exercise hobby, exercise frequency, duration of each exercise and duration of exercise, and warm-up time before exercise all showed positive correlation. Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction Surgery. (4) Samples from different causes of injury showed significant differences for all the injured sites. (5) Age has a significant negative influence on the wearing of shoes at ordinary times. (6) Exercise hobby: the warm-up time before exercise had a significant negative influence on the injured area. (7) Two groups of analysis items of exercise frequency, exercise duration and exercise duration, preexercise warm-up time, and exercise hobby were typically positively correlated. Total Knee Arthroplasty. (8) There was a significant difference of 0.01 between the hospitalization days of the intervention group and the control group (p < 0.01), and the hospitalization days of the intervention group were significantly lower than those of the control group. These results indicated that Mailuo Shutong pills were of great significance for the treatment of orthopedic patients during the operation period in that it could effectively shorten the hospital stay of all orthopedic patients and strengthen the accelerated rehabilitation. (9) There was a significant positive correlation between the history of knee joint surgery and the use time of Mailuo Shutong pills. (10) There was a markable positive correlation between occupation and sports hobbies, sports time, frequency and duration, and footwear. There was a significant negative correlation between occupation and preexercise warm-up. (11) Exercise time, frequency, and duration have significant positive influence on BMI.

Project description:BackgroundPeripheral perfusion index (PPI) is an indicator reflecting perfusion. Patients undergoing long time surgeries are more prone to hypoperfusion and increased lactate. Few studies focusing on investigating the association between PPI and surgical patients' prognoses. We performed this study to find it out.MethodsFrom January 2019 to September 2019, we retrospected all surgical patients who were transferred to ICU, Xinyang Central hospital, Henan province, China. Inclusive criteria: age???18?years old; surgical length???120?min. Exclusive criteria: died in ICU; discharging against medical advice; existing diseases affecting blood flow of upper limbs, for example, vascular thrombus in arms; severe liver dysfunction. We defined "prolonged ICU stay" as patients with their length of ICU stay longer than 48?h. According to the definition, patients were divided into two groups: "prolonged group" (PG) and "non-prolong group" (nPG). Baseline characteristics, surgical and therapeutic information, ICU LOS, SOFA and APACHE II were collected. Besides we gathered data of following parameters at 3 time points (T0: ICU admission; T1: 6?h after admission; T2: 12?h after admission): mean artery pressure (MAP), lactate, heart rate (HR), PPI and body temperature. Data were compared between the 2 groups. Multivariable binary logistic regression and ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curves were performed to find the association between perfusion indictors and ICU LOS.ResultsEventually, 168 patients were included, 65 in PG and 103 in nPG. Compared to nPG, patients in PG had higher blood lactate and lower PPI. PPI showed significant difference between two groups earlier than lactate (T0 vs T1). The value of PPI at two time points was lower in PG than nPG(T0: 1.09?±?0.33 vs 1.41?±?0.45, p?= 0.001; T1: 1.08?±?0.37 vs 1.49?±?0.41, p?< 0.001). Increased lactateT1(OR 3.216; 95% CI 1.253-8.254, P?= 0.015) and decreased PPIT1 (OR 0.070; 95% CI 0.016-0.307, P <?0.001) were independently associated with prolonged ICU stay. The area under ROC of the PPIT1 for predicting ICU stay>?48?h was 0.772, and the cutoff value for PPIT1 was 1.35, with 83.3% sensitivity and 73.8% specificity.ConclusionsPPI and blood lactate at T1(6 h after ICU admission) are associated with ICU LOS in surgical patient. Compared to lactate, PPI indicates hypoperfusion earlier and more accurate in predicting prolonged ICU stay.

Project description:OBJECTIVES:Early prediction of undesired outcomes among newly hospitalized patients could improve patient triage and prompt conversations about patients' goals of care. We evaluated the performance of logistic regression, gradient boosting machine, random forest, and elastic net regression models, with and without unstructured clinical text data, to predict a binary composite outcome of in-hospital death or ICU length of stay greater than or equal to 7 days using data from the first 48 hours of hospitalization. DESIGN:Retrospective cohort study with split sampling for model training and testing. SETTING:A single urban academic hospital. PATIENTS:All hospitalized patients who required ICU care at the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston, MA, from 2001 to 2012. INTERVENTIONS:None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:Among eligible 25,947 hospital admissions, we observed 5,504 (21.2%) in which patients died or had ICU length of stay greater than or equal to 7 days. The gradient boosting machine model had the highest discrimination without (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.81-0.84) and with (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.88-0.90) text-derived variables. Both gradient boosting machines and random forests outperformed logistic regression without text data (p < 0.001), whereas all models outperformed logistic regression with text data (p < 0.02). The inclusion of text data increased the discrimination of all four model types (p < 0.001). Among those models using text data, the increasing presence of terms "intubated" and "poor prognosis" were positively associated with mortality and ICU length of stay, whereas the term "extubated" was inversely associated with them. CONCLUSIONS:Variables extracted from unstructured clinical text from the first 48 hours of hospital admission using natural language processing techniques significantly improved the abilities of logistic regression and other machine learning models to predict which patients died or had long ICU stays. Learning health systems may adapt such models using open-source approaches to capture local variation in care patterns.

Dataset Information

Prediction of Prolonged ICU Stay in Cardiac Surgery Patients as a Useful Method to Identify Nutrition Risk in Cardiac Surgery Patients: A Post Hoc Analysis of a Prospective Observational Study.

Publications

Prediction of Prolonged ICU Stay in Cardiac Surgery Patients as a Useful Method to Identify Nutrition Risk in Cardiac Surgery Patients: A Post Hoc Analysis of a Prospective Observational Study.

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