Dataset Information

The hidden Markov chain modelling of the COVID-19 spreading using Moroccan dataset.

ABSTRACT: The World Health Organization (WHO) declared in March 12, 2020 the COVID-19 disease as pandemic. In Morocco, the first local transmission case was detected in March 13. The number of confirmed cases has gradually increased to reach 15,194 on July 10, 2020. To predict the COVID-19 evolution, statistical and mathematical models such as generalized logistic growth model [1], exponential model [2], segmented Poisson model [3], Susceptible-Infected-Recovered derivative models [4] and ARIMA [5] have been proposed and used. Herein, we proposed the use of the Hidden Markov Chain, which is a statistical system modelling transitions from one state (confirmed cases, recovered, active or death) to another according to a transition probability matrix to forecast the evolution of COVID-19 in Morocco from March 14, to October 5, 2020. In our knowledge the Hidden Markov Chain was not yet applied to the COVID-19 spreading. Forecasts for the cumulative number of confirmed, recovered, active and death cases can help the Moroccan authorities to set up adequate protocols for managing the post-confinement due to COVID-19. We provided both the recorded and forecasted data matrices of the cumulative number of the confirmed, recovered and active cases through the range of the studied dates.

SUBMITTER: Marfak A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7380238 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The hidden Markov chain modelling of the COVID-19 spreading using Moroccan dataset.

Marfak Abdelghafour A Achak Doha D Azizi Asmaa A Nejjari Chakib C Aboudi Khalid K Saad Elmadani E Hilali Abderraouf A Youlyouz-Marfak Ibtissam I

Data in brief 20200724

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared in March 12, 2020 the COVID-19 disease as pandemic. In Morocco, the first local transmission case was detected in March 13. The number of confirmed cases has gradually increased to reach 15,194 on July 10, 2020. To predict the COVID-19 evolution, statistical and mathematical models such as generalized logistic growth model [1], exponential model [2], segmented Poisson model [3], Susceptible-Infected-Recovered derivative models [4] and ARIMA [5] have b ...[more]

PMID: 32789156

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Project description:BackgroundRiboswitches are a type of noncoding RNA that regulate gene expression by switching from one structural conformation to another on ligand binding. The various classes of riboswitches discovered so far are differentiated by the ligand, which on binding induces a conformational switch. Every class of riboswitch is characterized by an aptamer domain, which provides the site for ligand binding, and an expression platform that undergoes conformational change on ligand binding. The sequence and structure of the aptamer domain is highly conserved in riboswitches belonging to the same class. We propose a method for fast and accurate identification of riboswitches using profile Hidden Markov Models (pHMM). Our method exploits the high degree of sequence conservation that characterizes the aptamer domain.ResultsOur method can detect riboswitches in genomic databases rapidly and accurately. Its sensitivity is comparable to the method based on the Covariance Model (CM). For six out of ten riboswitch classes, our method detects more than 99.5% of the candidates identified by the much slower CM method while being several hundred times faster. For three riboswitch classes, our method detects 97-99% of the candidates relative to the CM method. Our method works very well for those classes of riboswitches that are characterized by distinct and conserved sequence motifs.ConclusionRiboswitches play a crucial role in controlling the expression of several prokaryotic genes involved in metabolism and transport processes. As more and more new classes of riboswitches are being discovered, it is important to understand the patterns of their intra and inter genomic distribution. Understanding such patterns will enable us to better understand the evolutionary history of these genetic regulatory elements. However, a complete picture of the distribution pattern of riboswitches will emerge only after accurate identification of riboswitches across genomes. We believe that the riboswitch detection method developed in this paper will aid in that process. The significant advantage in terms of speed, of our pHMM-based approach over the method based on CM allows us to scan entire databases (rather than 5'UTRs only) in a relatively short period of time in order to accurately identify riboswitch candidates.

Dataset Information

The hidden Markov chain modelling of the COVID-19 spreading using Moroccan dataset.

Publications

The hidden Markov chain modelling of the COVID-19 spreading using Moroccan dataset.

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