Dataset Information

COVID-19 in Italy and extreme data mining.

ABSTRACT: In this article we want to show the potential of an evolutionary algorithm called Topological Weighted Centroid (TWC). This algorithm can obtain new and relevant information from extremely limited and poor datasets. In a world dominated by the concept of big (fat?) data we want to show that it is possible, by necessity or choice, to work profitably even on small data. This peculiarity of the algorithm means that even in the early stages of an epidemic process, when the data are too few to have sufficient statistics, it is possible to obtain important information. To prove our theory, we addressed one of the most central issues at the moment: the COVID-19 epidemic. In particular, the cases recorded in Italy have been selected. Italy seems to have a central role in this epidemic because of the high number of measured infections. Through this innovative artificial intelligence algorithm, we have tried to analyze the evolution of the phenomenon and to predict its future steps using a dataset that contained only geospatial coordinates (longitude and latitude) of the first recorded cases. Once the coordinates of the places where at least one case of contagion had been officially diagnosed until February 26th, 2020 had been collected, research and analysis was carried out on: outbreak point and related heat map (TWC alpha); probability distribution of the contagion on February 26th (TWC beta); possible spread of the phenomenon in the immediate future and then in the future of the future (TWC gamma and TWC theta); how this passage occurred in terms of paths and mutual influence (Theta paths and Markov Machine). Finally, a heat map of the possible situation towards the end of the epidemic in terms of infectiousness of the areas was drawn up. The analyses with TWC confirm the assumptions made at the beginning.

SUBMITTER: Buscema PM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7382358 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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COVID-19 in Italy and extreme data mining.

Buscema Paolo Massimo PM Della Torre Francesca F Breda Marco M Massini Giulia G Grossi Enzo E

Physica A 20200725

In this article we want to show the potential of an evolutionary algorithm called Topological Weighted Centroid (TWC). This algorithm can obtain new and relevant information from extremely limited and poor datasets. In a world dominated by the concept of big (fat?) data we want to show that it is possible, by necessity or choice, to work profitably even on small data. This peculiarity of the algorithm means that even in the early stages of an epidemic process, when the data are too few to have s ...[more]

PMID: 32834435

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Project description:Potential therapy and confounding factors including typical co-administered medications, patient's disease states, disease prevalence, patient demographics, medical histories, and reasons for prescribing a drug often are incomplete, conflicting, missing, or uncharacterized in spontaneous adverse drug event (ADE) reporting systems. These missing or incomplete features can affect and limit the application of quantitative methods in pharmacovigilance for meta-analyses of data during randomized clinical trials. Data from patients with hypertension were retrieved and integrated from the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System; 134 antihypertensive drugs out of 1131 drugs were filtered and then evaluated using the empirical Bayes geometric mean (EBGM) of the posterior distribution to build ADE-drug profiles with an emphasis on the pulmonary ADEs. Afterward, the graphical least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (GLASSO) captured drug associations based on pulmonary ADEs by correcting hidden factors and confounder misclassification. Selected drugs were then compared using the Friedman test in drug classes and clusters obtained from GLASSO. Following multiple filtering stages to exclude insignificant and noise-driven reports, we found that drugs from antihypertensives agents, urologicals, and antithrombotic agents (macitentan, bosentan, epoprostenol, selexipag, sildenafil, tadalafil, and beraprost) form a similar class with a significantly higher incidence of pulmonary ADEs. Macitentan and bosentan were associated with 64% and 56% of pulmonary ADEs, respectively. Because these two medications are prescribed in diseases affecting pulmonary function and may be likely to emerge among the highest reported pulmonary ADEs, in fact, they serve to validate the methods utilized here. Conversely, doxazosin and rilmenidine were found to have the least pulmonary ADEs in selected drugs from hypertension patients. Nifedipine and candesartan were also found by signal detection methods to form a drug cluster, shown by several studies an effective combination of these drugs on lowering blood pressure and appeared an improved side effect profile in comparison with single-agent monotherapy. We consider pulmonary ADE profiles in multiple long-standing groups of therapeutics including antihypertensive agents, antithrombotic agents, beta-blocking agents, calcium channel blockers, or agents acting on the renin-angiotensin system, in patients with hypertension associated with high risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We found that several individual drugs have significant differences between their drug classes and compared to other drug classes. For instance, macitentan and bosentan from endothelin receptor antagonists show major concern while doxazosin and rilmenidine exhibited the least pulmonary ADEs compared to the outcomes of other drugs. Using techniques in this study, we assessed and confirmed the hypothesis that drugs from the same drug class could have very different pulmonary ADE profiles affecting outcomes in acute respiratory illness. GJW and MJD accepted funding from BioNexus KC for funding on this project, but BioNexus KC had no direct role in this article.

Dataset Information

COVID-19 in Italy and extreme data mining.

Publications

COVID-19 in Italy and extreme data mining.

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