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Early spring near-surface ozone in Europe during the COVID-19 shutdown: Meteorological effects outweigh emission changes.

ABSTRACT: This paper analyses the impact of the control measures during the COVID-19 lockdown in Europe (15 March-30 April 2020) on 1-h daily maximum nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and maximum daily 8-h running average ozone (MDA8 O3) observations obtained from the European Environment Agency's air quality database (AirBase). Daily maximum NO2 decreased consistently over the whole continent, with relative reductions ranging from 5% to 55% with respect to the same period in 2015-2019 for 80% of the sites considered (10th - 90th percentiles). However, MDA8 O3 concentrations showed a different pattern, decreasing over Iberia and increasing elsewhere. In particular, a large region from northwestern to central Europe experienced increases of 10-22% at urban background stations, reaching typical values of the summer season. The analysis of the expected NO2 and O3 concentrations in the absence of the lockdown, using generalised additive models fed by reanalysis meteorological data, shows that the low NO2 concentrations were mostly attributed to the emission reductions while O3 anomalies were dominated by the meteorology. The relevance of each meteorological variable depends on the location. The positive O3 anomalies in northwestern and central Europe were mostly associated with elevated temperatures, low specific humidity and enhanced solar radiation. This pattern could be an analogue to study the limits of pollution control policies under climate change scenarios. On the other hand, the O3 reduction in Iberia is mostly attributable to the low solar radiation and high specific humidity, although the reduced zonal wind also played a role in the proximity of the Iberian Mediterranean coast.

SUBMITTER: Ordonez C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7385987 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Early spring near-surface ozone in Europe during the COVID-19 shutdown: Meteorological effects outweigh emission changes.

Ordóñez Carlos C Garrido-Perez Jose M JM García-Herrera Ricardo R

The Science of the total environment 20200728

This paper analyses the impact of the control measures during the COVID-19 lockdown in Europe (15 March-30 April 2020) on 1-h daily maximum nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and maximum daily 8-h running average ozone (MDA8 O3) observations obtained from the European Environment Agency's air quality database (AirBase). Daily maximum NO2 decreased consistently over the whole continent, with relative reductions ranging from 5% to 55% with respect to the same period in 2015-20 ...[more]

PMID: 32781318

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Project description:BackgroundSocial distancing have been widely used to mitigate community spread of SARS-CoV-2. We sought to quantify the impact of COVID-19 social distancing policies across 27 European counties in spring 2020 on population mobility and the subsequent trajectory of disease.MethodsWe obtained data on national social distancing policies from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker and aggregated and anonymized mobility data from Google. We used a pre-post comparison and two linear mixed-effects models to first assess the relationship between implementation of national policies and observed changes in mobility, and then to assess the relationship between changes in mobility and rates of COVID-19 infections in subsequent weeks.ResultsCompared to a pre-COVID baseline, Spain saw the largest decrease in aggregate population mobility (~70%), as measured by the time spent away from residence, while Sweden saw the smallest decrease (~20%). The largest declines in mobility were associated with mandatory stay-at-home orders, followed by mandatory workplace closures, school closures, and non-mandatory workplace closures. While mandatory shelter-in-place orders were associated with 16.7% less mobility (95% CI: -23.7% to -9.7%), non-mandatory orders were only associated with an 8.4% decrease (95% CI: -14.9% to -1.8%). Large-gathering bans were associated with the smallest change in mobility compared with other policy types. Changes in mobility were in turn associated with changes in COVID-19 case growth. For example, a 10% decrease in time spent away from places of residence was associated with 11.8% (95% CI: 3.8%, 19.1%) fewer new COVID-19 cases.DiscussionThis comprehensive evaluation across Europe suggests that mandatory stay-at-home orders and workplace closures had the largest impacts on population mobility and subsequent COVID-19 cases at the onset of the pandemic. With a better understanding of policies' relative performance, countries can more effectively invest in, and target, early nonpharmacological interventions.

Dataset Information

Early spring near-surface ozone in Europe during the COVID-19 shutdown: Meteorological effects outweigh emission changes.

Publications

Early spring near-surface ozone in Europe during the COVID-19 shutdown: Meteorological effects outweigh emission changes.

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