High variation expected in the pace and burden of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks across sub-Saharan Africa.

ABSTRACT: A surprising feature of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to date is the low burdens reported in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries relative to other global regions. Potential explanations (e.g., warmer environments1, younger populations2-4) have yet to be framed within a comprehensive analysis accounting for factors that may offset the effects of climate and demography. Here, we synthesize factors hypothesized to shape the pace of this pandemic and its burden as it moves across SSA, encompassing demographic, comorbidity, climatic, healthcare and intervention capacity, and human mobility dimensions of risk. We find large scale diversity in probable drivers, such that outcomes are likely to be highly variable among SSA countries. While simulation shows that extensive climatic variation among SSA popu

SUBMITTER: Rice BL 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7386522 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature