Dataset Information

Assessment of the outbreak risk, mapping and infection behavior of COVID-19: Application of the autoregressive integrated-moving average (ARIMA) and polynomial models.

ABSTRACT: Infectious disease outbreaks pose a significant threat to human health worldwide. The outbreak of pandemic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused a global health emergency. Thus, identification of regions with high risk for COVID-19 outbreak and analyzing the behaviour of the infection is a major priority of the governmental organizations and epidemiologists worldwide. The aims of the present study were to analyze the risk factors of coronavirus outbreak for identifying the areas having high risk of infection and to evaluate the behaviour of infection in Fars Province, Iran. A geographic information system (GIS)-based machine learning algorithm (MLA), support vector machine (SVM), was used for the assessment of the outbreak risk of COVID-19 in Fars Province, Iran whereas the daily observations of infected cases were tested in the-polynomial and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to examine the patterns of virus infestation in the province and in Iran. The results of the disease outbreak in Iran were compared with the data for Iran and the world. Sixteen effective factors were selected for spatial modelling of outbreak risk. The validation outcome reveals that SVM achieved an AUC value of 0.786 (March 20), 0.799 (March 29), and 86.6 (April 10) that displays a good prediction of outbreak risk change detection. The results of the third-degree polynomial and ARIMA models in the province revealed an increasing trend with an evidence of turning, demonstrating extensive quarantines has been effective. The general trends of virus infestation in Iran and Fars Province were similar, although a more volatile growth of the infected cases is expected in the province. The results of this study might assist better programming COVID-19 disease prevention and control and gaining sorts of predictive capability would have wide-ranging benefits.

SUBMITTER: Pourghasemi HR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7386644 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Assessment of the outbreak risk, mapping and infection behavior of COVID-19: Application of the autoregressive integrated-moving average (ARIMA) and polynomial models.

Pourghasemi Hamid Reza HR Pouyan Soheila S Farajzadeh Zakariya Z Sadhasivam Nitheshnirmal N Heidari Bahram B Babaei Sedigheh S Tiefenbacher John P JP

PloS one 20200728 7

Infectious disease outbreaks pose a significant threat to human health worldwide. The outbreak of pandemic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused a global health emergency. Thus, identification of regions with high risk for COVID-19 outbreak and analyzing the behaviour of the infection is a major priority of the governmental organizations and epidemiologists worldwide. The aims of the present study were to analyze the risk factors of coronavirus outbreak for identifying the areas having ...[more]

PMID: 32722716

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Project description:Influenza A virus commonly circulating in swine (IAV-S) is characterized by large genetic and antigenic diversity and, thus, improvements in different aspects of IAV-S surveillance are needed to achieve desirable goals of surveillance such as to establish the capacity to forecast with the greatest accuracy the number of influenza cases likely to arise. Advancements in modeling approaches provide the opportunity to use different models for surveillance. However, in order to make improvements in surveillance, it is necessary to assess the predictive ability of such models. This study compares the sensitivity and predictive accuracy of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, the generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GLARMA) model, and the random forest (RF) model with respect to the frequency of influenza A virus (IAV) in Ontario swine. Diagnostic data on IAV submissions in Ontario swine between 2007 and 2015 were obtained from the Animal Health Laboratory (University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada). Each modeling approach was examined for predictive accuracy, evaluated by the root mean square error, the normalized root mean square error, and the model's ability to anticipate increases and decreases in disease frequency. Likewise, we verified the magnitude of improvement offered by the ARIMA, GLARMA and RF models over a seasonal-naïve method. Using the diagnostic submissions, the occurrence of seasonality and the long-term trend in IAV infections were also investigated. The RF model had the smallest root mean square error in the prospective analysis and tended to predict increases in the number of diagnostic submissions and positive virological submissions at weekly and monthly intervals with a higher degree of sensitivity than the ARIMA and GLARMA models. The number of weekly positive virological submissions is significantly higher in the fall calendar season compared to the summer calendar season. Positive counts at weekly and monthly intervals demonstrated a significant increasing trend. Overall, this study shows that the RF model offers enhanced prediction ability over the ARIMA and GLARMA time series models for predicting the frequency of IAV infections in diagnostic submissions.

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Project description:BackgroundR2*-MRI is clinically used to noninvasively assess hepatic iron content (HIC) to guide potential iron chelation therapy. However, coexisting pathologies, such as fibrosis and steatosis, affect R2* measurements and may thus confound HIC estimations.PurposeTo evaluate whether a multispectral auto regressive moving average (ARMA) model can be used in conjunction with quantitative susceptibility mapping (QSM) to measure magnetic susceptibility as a confounder-free predictor of HIC.Study typePhantom study and in vivo cohort.SubjectsNine iron phantoms covering clinically relevant R2* range (20-1200/second) and 48 patients (22 male, 26 female, median age 18 years).Field strength/sequenceThree-dimensional (3D) and two-dimensional (2D) multi-echo gradient echo (GRE) at 1.5 T.AssessmentARMA-QSM modeling was performed on the complex 3D GRE signal to estimate R2*, fat fraction (FF), and susceptibility measurements. R2*-based dry clinical HIC values were calculated from the 2D GRE acquisition using a published R2*-HIC calibration curve as reference standard.Statistical testsLinear regression analysis was performed to compare ARMA R2* and susceptibility-based estimates to iron concentrations and dry clinical HIC values in phantoms and patients, respectively.ResultsIn phantoms, the ARMA R2* and susceptibility values strongly correlated with iron concentrations (R2 ≥ 0.9). In patients, the ARMA R2* values highly correlated (R2 = 0.97) with clinical HIC values with slope = 0.026, and the susceptibility values showed good correlation (R2 = 0.82) with clinical dry HIC values with slope = 3.3 and produced a dry-to-wet HIC ratio of 4.8.Data conclusionThis study shows the feasibility that ARMA-QSM can simultaneously estimate susceptibility-based wet HIC, R2*-based dry HIC and FFs from a single multi-echo GRE acquisition. Our results demonstrate that both, R2* and susceptibility-based wet HIC values estimated with ARMA-QSM showed good association with clinical dry HIC values with slopes similar to published R2*-biopsy HIC calibration and dry-to-wet tissue weight ratio, respectively. Hence, our study shows that ARMA-QSM can provide potentially confounder-free assessment of hepatic iron overload.Level of evidence3 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 2.

Dataset Information

Assessment of the outbreak risk, mapping and infection behavior of COVID-19: Application of the autoregressive integrated-moving average (ARIMA) and polynomial models.

Publications

Assessment of the outbreak risk, mapping and infection behavior of COVID-19: Application of the autoregressive integrated-moving average (ARIMA) and polynomial models.

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