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Predicting major adverse cardiovascular events for secondary prevention: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis of risk prediction models.

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION:Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally. With advances in early diagnosis and treatment of CVD and increasing life expectancy, more people are surviving initial CVD events. However, models for stratifying disease severity risk in patients with established CVD for effective secondary prevention strategies are inadequate. Multivariable prognostic models to stratify CVD risk may allow personalised treatment interventions. This review aims to systematically review the existing multivariable prognostic models for the recurrence of CVD or major adverse cardiovascular events in adults with established CVD diagnosis. METHODS AND ANALYSIS:Bibliographic databases (Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO and Web of Science) will be searched, from database inception to April 2020, using terms relating to the clinical area and prognosis. A hand search of the reference lists of included studies will also be done to identify additional published studies. No restrictions on language of publications will be applied. Eligible studies present multivariable models (derived or validated) of adults (aged 16 years and over) with an established diagnosis of CVD, reporting at least one of the components of the primary outcome of major adverse cardiovascular events (defined as either coronary heart disease, stroke, peripheral artery disease, heart failure or CVD-related mortality). Reviewing will be done by two reviewers independently using the pre-defined criteria. Data will be extracted for included full-text articles. Risk of bias will be assessed using the Prediction model study Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). Prognostic models will be summarised narratively. If a model is tested in multiple validation studies, the predictive performance will be summarised using a random-effects meta-analysis model to account for any between-study heterogeneity. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION:Ethics approval is not required. The results of this study will be submitted to relevant conferences for presentation and a peer-reviewed journal for publication. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER:CRD42019149111.

SUBMITTER: Akyea RK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7389481 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting major adverse cardiovascular events for secondary prevention: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis of risk prediction models.

Akyea Ralph K RK Leonardi-Bee Jo J Asselbergs Folkert W FW Patel Riyaz S RS Durrington Paul P Wierzbicki Anthony S AS Ibiwoye Oluwaseun H OH Kai Joe J Qureshi Nadeem N Weng Stephen F SF

BMJ open 20200727 7

<h4>Introduction</h4>Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally. With advances in early diagnosis and treatment of CVD and increasing life expectancy, more people are surviving initial CVD events. However, models for stratifying disease severity risk in patients with established CVD for effective secondary prevention strategies are inadequate. Multivariable prognostic models to stratify CVD risk may allow personalised treatment interventions. This revie ...[more]

PMID: 32718921

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Project description:Background Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) is a major vascular operation for stroke prevention that carries significant perioperative risks; however, outcome prediction tools remain limited. The authors developed machine learning algorithms to predict outcomes following CEA. Methods and Results The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program targeted vascular database was used to identify patients who underwent CEA between 2011 and 2021. Input features included 36 preoperative demographic/clinical variables. The primary outcome was 30-day major adverse cardiovascular events (composite of stroke, myocardial infarction, or death). The data were split into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Using 10-fold cross-validation, 6 machine learning models were trained using preoperative features. The primary metric for evaluating model performance was area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Model robustness was evaluated with calibration plot and Brier score. Overall, 38 853 patients underwent CEA during the study period. Thirty-day major adverse cardiovascular events occurred in 1683 (4.3%) patients. The best performing prediction model was XGBoost, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.90-0.92). In comparison, logistic regression had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.62 (95% CI, 0.60-0.64), and existing tools in the literature demonstrate area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values ranging from 0.58 to 0.74. The calibration plot showed good agreement between predicted and observed event probabilities with a Brier score of 0.02. The strongest predictive feature in our algorithm was carotid symptom status. Conclusions The machine learning models accurately predicted 30-day outcomes following CEA using preoperative data and performed better than existing tools. They have potential for important utility in guiding risk-mitigation strategies to improve outcomes for patients being considered for CEA.

Project description:BackgroundHypertrophic cardiomyopathy often causes major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), for example, arrhythmias, stroke, heart failure, and sudden cardiac death. Currently, there are no models available to predict MACE. Furthermore, it remains unclear which signaling pathways mediate MACE. Therefore, we aimed to prospectively determine protein biomarkers that predict MACE in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and to identify signaling pathways differentially regulated in patients who subsequently develop MACE.MethodsIn this multi-centre prospective cohort study of patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, we conducted plasma proteomics profiling of 4979 proteins upon enrollment. We developed a proteomics-based model to predict MACE using data from one institution (training set). We tested the predictive ability in independent samples from the other institution (test set) and performed time-to-event analysis. Additionally, we executed pathway analysis of predictive proteins using a false discovery rate threshold of <0.001.ResultsThe study included 245 patients (n=174 in the training set and n=71 in the test set). Using the proteomics-based model to predict MACE derived from the training set, the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve was 0.81 (95% CI, 0.68-0.93) in the test set. In the test set, the high-risk group determined by the proteomics-based predictive model had a significantly higher rate of developing MACE (hazard ratio, 13.6 [95% CI, 1.7-107]; P=0.01). The Ras-MAPK (mitogen-activated protein kinase) pathway was upregulated in patients who subsequently developed MACE (false discovery rate<1.0×10-7). Pathways involved in inflammation and fibrosis-for example, the TGF (transforming growth factor)-β pathway-were also upregulated.ConclusionsThis study serves as the first to demonstrate the ability of proteomics profiling to predict MACE in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, exhibiting both novel (eg, Ras-MAPK) and known (eg, TGF-β) pathways differentially regulated in patients who subsequently experience MACE.

Project description:BackgroundAcute coronary syndrome is the topmost cause of death worldwide; therefore, it is necessary to predict major adverse cardiovascular events and cardiovascular deaths in patients with acute coronary syndrome to make correct and timely clinical decisions.ObjectiveThe current review aimed to highlight algorithms and important predictor variables through examining those studies which used machine learning algorithms for predicting major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with acute coronary syndrome.MethodsTo predict major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with acute coronary syndrome, the preferred reporting items for scoping reviews guidelines were used. In doing so, PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus, Springer, and IEEE Xplore databases were searched for articles published between 2005 and 2021. The checklist "Quality assessment of machine learning studies" was used to assess the quality of eligible studies. The findings of the studies are presented in the form of a narrative synthesis of evidence.ResultsIn total, among 2,558 retrieved articles, 22 studies were qualified for analysis. Major adverse cardiovascular events and mortality were predicted in 5 and 17 studies, respectively. According to the results, 14 (63.64%) studies did not perform external validation and only used registry data. The algorithms used in this study comprised, inter alia, Regression Logistic, Random Forest, Boosting Ensemble, Non-Boosting Ensemble, Decision Trees, and Naive Bayes. Multiple studies (N = 20) achieved a high area under the ROC curve between 0.8 and 0.99 in predicting mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events. The predictor variables used in these studies were divided into demographic, clinical, and therapeutic features. However, no study reported the integration of machine learning model into clinical practice.ConclusionMachine learning algorithms rendered acceptable results to predict major adverse cardiovascular events and mortality outcomes in patients with acute coronary syndrome. However, these approaches have never been integrated into clinical practice. Further research is required to develop feasible and effective machine learning prediction models to measure their potentially important implications for optimizing the quality of care in patients with acute coronary syndrome.

Dataset Information

Predicting major adverse cardiovascular events for secondary prevention: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis of risk prediction models.

Publications

Predicting major adverse cardiovascular events for secondary prevention: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis of risk prediction models.

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