Data-driven study of the COVID-19 pandemic via age-structured modelling and prediction of the health system failure in Brazil amid diverse intervention strategies.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Canabarro A
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7392258 | biostudies-literature | 2020
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Data-driven study of the COVID-19 pandemic via age-structured modelling and prediction of the health system failure in Brazil amid diverse intervention strategies.
Canabarro Askery A Tenório Elayne E Martins Renato R Martins Laís L Brito Samuraí S Chaves Rafael R
PloS one 20200730 7
In this work we propose a data-driven age-structured census-based SIRD-like epidemiological model capable of forecasting the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil. We model the current scenario of closed schools and universities, social distancing of people above sixty years old and voluntary home quarantine to show that it is still not enough to protect the health system by explicitly computing the demand for hospital intensive care units. We also show that an urgent intense quarantine might be the only ...[more]
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