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Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century.

ABSTRACT: Global models of tide, storm surge, and wave setup are used to obtain projections of episodic coastal flooding over the coming century. The models are extensively validated against tide gauge data and the impact of uncertainties and assumptions on projections estimated in detail. Global "hotspots" where there is projected to be a significant change in episodic flooding by the end of the century are identified and found to be mostly concentrated in north western Europe and Asia. Results show that for the case of, no coastal protection or adaptation, and a mean RCP8.5 scenario, there will be an increase of 48% of the world's land area, 52% of the global population and 46% of global assets at risk of flooding by 2100. A total of 68% of the global coastal area flooded will be caused by tide and storm events with 32% due to projected regional sea level rise.

SUBMITTER: Kirezci E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7393110 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century.

Kirezci Ebru E Young Ian R IR Ranasinghe Roshanka R Muis Sanne S Nicholls Robert J RJ Lincke Daniel D Hinkel Jochen J

Scientific reports 20200730 1

Global models of tide, storm surge, and wave setup are used to obtain projections of episodic coastal flooding over the coming century. The models are extensively validated against tide gauge data and the impact of uncertainties and assumptions on projections estimated in detail. Global "hotspots" where there is projected to be a significant change in episodic flooding by the end of the century are identified and found to be mostly concentrated in north western Europe and Asia. Results show that ...[more]

PMID: 32732976

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Dataset Information

Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century.

Publications

Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century.

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