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Development and validation of a novel scoring system developed from a nomogram to identify malignant pleural effusion.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:This study aimed to establish and validate a novel scoring system based on a nomogram for the differential diagnosis of malignant pleural effusion (MPE) and benign pleural effusion (BPE). METHODS:Patients with PE and confirmed aetiology who underwent diagnostic thoracentesis were included in this study. One retrospective set (N = 1261) was used to develop and internally validate the predictive model. The clinical, radiological and laboratory features were collected and subjected to logistic regression analyses. The primary predictive model was displayed as a nomogram and then modified into a novel scoring system, which was externally validated in an independent set (N = 172). FINDINGS:The novel scoring system was composed of fever (3 points), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (4 points), effusion adenosine deaminase (7 points), serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) (4 points), effusion CEA (10 points) and effusion/serum CEA (8 points). With a cutoff value of 15 points, the area under the curve, specificity and sensitivity for identifying MPE were 0.913, 89.10%, and 82.63%, respectively, in the training set, 0.922, 93.48%, 81.51%, respectively, in the internal validation set and 0.912, 87.61%, 81.36%, respectively, in the external validation set. Moreover, this scoring system was exclusively applied to distinguish lung cancer with PE from tuberculous pleurisy and showed a favourable diagnostic performance in the training and validation sets. INTERPRETATION:This novel scoring system was developed from a retrospective study and externally validated in an independent set based on six easily accessible clinical variables, and it exhibited good diagnostic performance for identifying MPE. FUNDING:NFSC grants (no. 81572942, no. 81800094).

SUBMITTER: Wang S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7393523 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development and validation of a novel scoring system developed from a nomogram to identify malignant pleural effusion.

Wang Sufei S Tian Shan S Li Yuan Y Zhan Na N Guo Yingyun Y Liu Yu Y Xu Juanjuan J Ma Yanling Y Zhang Shujing S Song Siwei S Geng Wei W Xia Hui H Ma Pei P Wang Xuan X Liao Tingting T Duan Yanran Y Jin Yang Y Dong Weiguo W

EBioMedicine 20200730

<h4>Background</h4>This study aimed to establish and validate a novel scoring system based on a nomogram for the differential diagnosis of malignant pleural effusion (MPE) and benign pleural effusion (BPE).<h4>Methods</h4>Patients with PE and confirmed aetiology who underwent diagnostic thoracentesis were included in this study. One retrospective set (N = 1261) was used to develop and internally validate the predictive model. The clinical, radiological and laboratory features were collected and ...[more]

PMID: 32739872

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Project description:BackgroundThe diagnostic value of clinical and laboratory features to differentiate between malignant pleural effusion (MPE) and benign pleural effusion (BPE) has not yet been established.ObjectivesThe present study aimed to develop and validate the diagnostic accuracy of a scoring system based on a nomogram to distinguish MPE from BPE.MethodsA total of 1,239 eligible patients with PE were recruited in this study and randomly divided into a training set and an internal validation set at a ratio of 7:3. Logistic regression analysis was performed in the training set, and a nomogram was developed using selected predictors. The diagnostic accuracy of an innovative scoring system based on the nomogram was established and validated in the training, internal validation, and external validation sets (n = 217). The discriminatory power and the calibration and clinical values of the prediction model were evaluated.ResultsSeven variables [effusion carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), effusion adenosine deaminase (ADA), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), PE/serum CEA ratio (CEA ratio), effusion carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), effusion cytokeratin 19 fragment (CYFRA 21-1), and serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH)/effusion ADA ratio (cancer ratio, CR)] were validated and used to develop a nomogram. The prediction model showed both good discrimination and calibration capabilities for all sets. A scoring system was established based on the nomogram scores to distinguish MPE from BPE. The scoring system showed favorable diagnostic performance in the training set [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.955, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.942-0.968], the internal validation set (AUC = 0.952, 95% CI = 0.932-0.973), and the external validation set (AUC = 0.973, 95% CI = 0.956-0.990). In addition, the scoring system achieved satisfactory discriminative abilities at separating lung cancer-associated MPE from tuberculous pleurisy effusion (TPE) in the combined training and validation sets.ConclusionsThe present study developed and validated a scoring system based on seven parameters. The scoring system exhibited a reliable diagnostic performance in distinguishing MPE from BPE and might guide clinical decision-making.

Project description:BackgroundMalignant pericardial effusion (MPE) is a serious complication in patients with advanced malignant tumors, which indicates a poor prognosis. However, its clinical manifestations lack specificity, making it challenging to distinguish MPE from benign pericardial effusion (BPE). The aim of this study was to develop and validate a scoring system based on a nomogram to discriminate MPE from BPE through easy-to-obtain clinical parameters.MethodsIn this study, the patients with pericardial effusion who underwent diagnostic pericardiocentesis in Taizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province from February 2013 to December 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. The eligible patients were divided into a training group (n = 161) and a validation group (n = 66) according to the admission time. The nomogram model was established using the meaningful indicators screened by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate logistic regression. Then, a new scoring system was constructed based on this nomogram model.ResultsThe new scoring system included loss of weight (3 points), no fever (4 points), mediastinal lymph node enlargement (2 points), pleural effusion (6 points), effusion adenosine deaminase (ADA≦18U/L) (5 points), effusion lactate dehydrogenase (LDH>1033U/L) (7 points), and effusion carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA>4.9g/mL) (10 points). With the optimal cut-off value was 16 points, the area under the curve (AUC), specificity, sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR) for identifying MPE were 0.974, 95.1%, 91.0%, 85.6%, 96.8%, 10.56 and 0.05, respectively, in the training set and 0.950, 83.3%, 95.2%, 90.9%, 90.9%, 17.50, and 0.18, respectively, in the validation set. The scoring system also showed good diagnostic accuracy in differentiating MPE caused by lung cancer from tuberculous pericardial effusion (TPE) and MPE including atypical cell from BPE.ConclusionThe new scoring system based on seven easily available variables has good diagnostic value in distinguishing MPE from BPE.

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Development and validation of a novel scoring system developed from a nomogram to identify malignant pleural effusion.

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Development and validation of a novel scoring system developed from a nomogram to identify malignant pleural effusion.

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