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Impacts of climate change on current and future invasion of Prosopis juliflora in Ethiopia: environmental and socio-economic implications.

ABSTRACT: Prosopis juliflora is a serious invader, causing great ecological and economic damage in Ethiopia. Thus, it is imperative to examine potential invasion dynamics of P. juliflora at national level under climate change scenario to better influence decision making processes on the management of this invasive species. We derived a consensus model from five modeling approaches to examine the current and future (2050 and 2070) climatic suitability for P. juliflora under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in Ethiopia. Under the current climatic scenario, 94.8% of the country was non-suitable for P. juliflora establishment and invasion while 0.4% (4.56 million ha) was highly suitable. In 2050, highly suitable area for P. juliflora is expected to increase by 55.6% and 63.6%, while moderately suitable area is projected to increase by 33.3% and 42.9% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. Compared to the current climatic condition, in 2070, highly suitable area for the species is projected to increase by 73.3% (3.43 million ha) and 80.0% (3.65 million ha) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. With the current cover, this invasive species had already caused significant impact on rangelands in many parts of the country. Its further expansion would worsen the problem, leading to great environmental and economic damage, thereby threatening the livelihood of the community. Negative environmental and economical impacts caused by the species will be high if preventive and effective management measures are not earnestly taken, and it becomes one of the major challenges for the 21st century pastoralism and their livelihoods. We recommend a national effort be organized towards combating P. juliflora expansion to new areas, especially in regions and protected area predicted as frontiers of potential expansion.

SUBMITTER: Sintayehu DW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7398938 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Impacts of climate change on current and future invasion of Prosopis juliflora in Ethiopia: environmental and socio-economic implications.

Sintayehu Dejene W DW Dalle Gemedo G Bobasa Arbo F AF

Heliyon 20200801 8

Prosopis juliflora is a serious invader, causing great ecological and economic damage in Ethiopia. Thus, it is imperative to examine potential invasion dynamics of P. juliflora at national level under climate change scenario to better influence decision making processes on the management of this invasive species. We derived a consensus model from five modeling approaches to examine the current and future (2050 and 2070) climatic suitability for P. juliflora under two climate ...[more]

PMID: 32775750

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Project description:This study aimed to assess community perceptions towards invasion of Prosopis juliflora, utilization, and its control options in Afar region, Northern Ethiopia. Using purposive sampling and stratified random methods, 20 members of key informants and 154 households from four sites of Awash Fentale and Amibara Districts were selected. For data analysis, we used Kruskal Wallis non-parametric tests of K independent samples. About 30% of respondents in Amibara and 29% in Awash Fentale reported that Prosopis juliflora was largely introduced into their landscape by livestock. It showed that 29% of the respondents in Awash Fentale and 41% in Amibara responded that Prosopis juliflora largely invaded and affected rangelands. Morevover, about 1% of respondents in Awash Fentale and 14% in Amibara argued that Prosopis juliflora hindered movements of livestock. In addition, 30% of respondents in Amibara and 29% in Awash Fentale believe that Prosopis juliflora was largely dispersed by livestock. It showed that 20% of households in Awash Fentale and 41% in Amibara have the notion that Prosopis juliflora majorly impacted rangelands. Whereas 1.3% of respondents in Awash Fentale and 14% in Amibara argued that Prosopis juliflora have hampered the movement of livestock. Thus, the afromentioned findings are implications for management of rangelands. With regard to the control of Prosopis juliflora invasions, 12% of respondents in Awash Fentale and 33% in Amibara District tried control its expansion by fire. About 10% of respondents in Awash Fentale and 9% in Amibara district managed Prosopis juliflora expansion by its utilization, whereas, in Awash Fentale (11%) and Amibara (8%) households indicated that invasion of Prosopis juliflora could be controlled by mechanical methods. It is advisable to do some managerial work to reverse these impacts as perceived by local communities in the study area to avert the aggressive proliferation of Prosopis juliflora in the region.

Project description:We describe a project to quantify the burden of heat and ozone on mortality in the UK, both for the present-day and under future emission scenarios.Mortality burdens attributable to heat and ozone exposure are estimated by combination of climate-chemistry modelling and epidemiological risk assessment. Weather forecasting models (WRF) are used to simulate the driving meteorology for the EMEP4UK chemistry transport model at 5 km by 5 km horizontal resolution across the UK; the coupled WRF-EMEP4UK model is used to simulate daily surface temperature and ozone concentrations for the years 2003, 2005 and 2006, and for future emission scenarios. The outputs of these models are combined with evidence on the ozone-mortality and heat-mortality relationships derived from epidemiological analyses (time series regressions) of daily mortality in 15 UK conurbations, 1993-2003, to quantify present-day health burdens.During the August 2003 heatwave period, elevated ozone concentrations > 200 microg m-3 were measured at sites in London and elsewhere. This and other ozone photochemical episodes cause breaches of the UK air quality objective for ozone. Simulations performed with WRF-EMEP4UK reproduce the August 2003 heatwave temperatures and ozone concentrations. There remains day-to-day variability in the high ozone concentrations during the heatwave period, which on some days may be explained by ozone import from the European continent.Preliminary calculations using extended time series of spatially-resolved WRF-EMEP4UK model output suggest that in the summers (May to September) of 2003, 2005 & 2006 over 6000 deaths were attributable to ozone and around 5000 to heat in England and Wales. The regional variation in these deaths appears greater for heat-related than for ozone-related burdens.Changes in UK health burdens due to a range of future emission scenarios will be quantified. These future emissions scenarios span a range of possible futures from assuming current air quality legislation is fully implemented, to a more optimistic case with maximum feasible reductions, through to a more pessimistic case with continued strong economic growth and minimal implementation of air quality legislation.Elevated surface ozone concentrations during the 2003 heatwave period led to exceedences of the current UK air quality objective standards. A coupled climate-chemistry model is able to reproduce these temperature and ozone extremes. By combining model simulations of surface temperature and ozone with ozone-heat-mortality relationships derived from an epidemiological regression model, we estimate present-day and future health burdens across the UK. Future air quality legislation may need to consider the risk of increases in future heatwaves.

Dataset Information

Impacts of climate change on current and future invasion of Prosopis juliflora in Ethiopia: environmental and socio-economic implications.

Publications

Impacts of climate change on current and future invasion of <i>Prosopis juliflora</i> in Ethiopia: environmental and socio-economic implications.

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