Dataset Information

Predictors of imminent risk of fracture in Medicare-enrolled men and women.

ABSTRACT: Advancing age, female sex, recent prior fracture and falls, and specific comorbidities and medications contribute to imminent (within 1-2 years) risk of fracture in Medicare enrollees. Clinician awareness of these risk factors and their dynamic nature may lead to improved osteoporosis care for elderly patients.Purpose: The burden of osteoporotic fracture disproportionately affects the elderly. Growing awareness that fracture risk can change substantially over time underscores the need to understand risk factors for imminent (within 1-2 years) fracture. This study assessed predictors of imminent risk of fracture in the US Medicare population.

Methods: Administrative claims data from a random sample of Medicare beneficiaries were analyzed for patients aged ??67 years on January 1, 2011 (index date), with continuous coverage between January 1, 2009 and March 31, 2011, excluding patients with non-melanoma cancer or Paget's disease. Incident osteoporotic fractures were identified during 12 and 24 months post-index. Potential predictors were age, sex, race, history of fracture, history of falls, presence of osteoporosis, cardiovascular diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD), mood/anxiety disorders, polyinflammatory conditions, difficulty walking, use of durable medical equipment, ambulance/life support, and pre-index use of osteoporosis medications, steroids, or central nervous system medications. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate predictors of fracture risk in the two follow-up intervals.

Results: Among 1,780,451 individuals included (mean age 77.7 years, 66% female), 8.3% had prior fracture and 6.1% had a history of falls. During the 12- and 24-month follow-up periods, 3.0% and 5.4% of patients had an incident osteoporotic fracture, respectively. Imminent risk of fracture increased with older age (double/triple), female sex (>?80%), recent prior fracture (>?double) and falls, and specific comorbidities and medications.

Conclusions: Demographics and factors including fall/fracture history, comorbidities, and medications contribute to imminent risk of fracture in elderly patients.

SUBMITTER: Yusuf AA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7399683 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictors of imminent risk of fracture in Medicare-enrolled men and women.

Yusuf Akeem A AA Hu Yan Y Chandler David D Crittenden Daria B DB Barron Richard L RL

Archives of osteoporosis 20200803 1

Advancing age, female sex, recent prior fracture and falls, and specific comorbidities and medications contribute to imminent (within 1-2 years) risk of fracture in Medicare enrollees. Clinician awareness of these risk factors and their dynamic nature may lead to improved osteoporosis care for elderly patients.<h4>Purpose</h4>The burden of osteoporotic fracture disproportionately affects the elderly. Growing awareness that fracture risk can change substantially over time underscores the need to ...[more]

PMID: 32748034

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Project description:In elderly women with osteoporosis, prior fracture, low BMD, impaired physical functioning, poorer general health, and recent falls were all direct predictors of imminent (in next year) fracture risk. Prior fracture, older age, worse health, impaired cognitive functioning, and recent falls indirectly increased imminent risk by reducing physical functioning/general health. INTRODUCTION:This study was designed to examine determinants of imminent risk of osteoporotic fracture (i.e., next 1-2 years) in postmenopausal women. METHODS:This retrospective cohort study used data from Caucasian women age 65 or older with osteoporosis who participated in the observational Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF). We examined potential direct and indirect predictors of hip and nonvertebral fractures in 1-year follow-up intervals including anthropometric measures, bone mineral density (T-score), fracture since age 50, physical function, cognition, medical conditions, recent (past year) falls, and lifestyle factors. Clinically related variables were grouped into constructs via factor analysis. These constructs and selected individual variables were incorporated into a theoretical structural equation model to evaluate factors that influence imminent risk. RESULTS:Among 2261 patients, 19.4% had a nonvertebral fracture and 5.5% had a hip fracture within 1 year of a study visit between 1992 and 2008. Prior fracture, lower T-scores, lower physical functioning, and recent falls all directly increased 1-year risk of nonvertebral fracture. For both nonvertebral and hip fractures, prior fracture and recent falls influenced risk indirectly through general health, while cognition influenced risk via physical functioning. Age influenced both physical functioning and general health. CONCLUSIONS:Several established risk factors for 10-year fracture risk also played a role in predicting imminent risk of fracture (e.g., T-scores, prior fracture), as did falls, cognition, physical functioning, and general health. Fracture risk assessments should also consider falls and fall risk factors as well as established bone-related risk factors in assessing imminent fracture risk.

Project description:This study examined the imminent risk of a future fracture within 1 and 2 years following a first fracture in women aged 50 years and older and assessed independent factors associated with risk of subsequent fractures. The study highlights the need to intervene rapidly after a fracture to prevent further fractures. INTRODUCTION:This study aims to determine the imminent risk of subsequent fractures within 1 and 2 years following a first fracture and to assess independent factors associated with subsequent fractures. METHODS:Retrospective, observational cohort study of women aged ≥ 50 years with a fragility fracture was identified from Swedish national registers. Clinical/demographic characteristics at the time of index fracture and cumulative fracture incidences up to 12 and 24 months following index fracture were calculated. Risk factors for subsequent fracture were identified using multivariate regression analysis. RESULTS:Two hundred forty-two thousand one hundred eight women (mean [SD] age 74 [12.5] years) were included. The cumulative subsequent fracture incidence at 12 months was 7.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.9-7.2) and at 24 months was 12.0% (95% CI, 11.8-12.1). The rate of subsequent fractures was highest in the first month (~ 15 fractures per 1000 patient-years) and remained steady between 4 and 24 months (~ 5 fractures/1000 patient-years). Higher age was an independent risk factor for imminent subsequent fractures (at 24 months, sub-distribution hazard ratio [HR], 3.07; p < 0.001 for women 80-89 years [reference 50-59 years]). Index vertebral fracture was a strong independent risk factor for subsequent fracture (sub-distribution HR, 2.72 versus hip fracture; p < 0.001 over 12 months; HR, 2.23; p < 0.001 over 24 months). CONCLUSIONS:Our findings highlight the need to intervene rapidly after any fragility fracture in postmenopausal women. The occurrence of a fragility fracture provides healthcare systems with a unique opportunity to intervene to reduce the increased risk of subsequent fractures.

Project description:Reduced kidney function is associated with an increased fracture risk, although the relationship between an age-related decline and fractures needs further investigation. We followed kidney function and fracture risk for 10 years. A mild-moderate decline in kidney function was associated with fracture, but not in advanced age. INTRODUCTION:With age, kidney function declines. Though well known that chronic kidney disease is associated with increased fracture risk, the extent to which the typical age-related decline contributes is unclear. In the OPRA cohort, a longitudinal study of older non-selected women, we investigated the association between kidney function and fracture. METHODS:Cystatin C-based kidney function estimates were available at age 75 (n?=?981) and 80 (n?=?685). Women were categorized by kidney function: normal (CKD stages 1 and 2), mild-moderate (3a), poor (3b-5), and imminent, short- and long-term fracture risk investigated. BMD measurements and kidney function for risk prediction were also evaluated; women were categorized by both reduced kidney function (stages 3-5) and osteoporosis status. RESULTS:In the short term, 2-3 years, mild-moderate kidney dysfunction was associated with the highest risk increase: osteoporotic fractures (2 years HRadj 2.21, 95% CI 1.27-3.87) and also up to 5 years (between 75 and 80 years) (HRadj 1.51, 1.04-2.18). Hip fracture risk was similarly increased. This association was not observed from age 80 nor for women with poorest kidney function. Reduced kidney function was associated with higher risk even without osteoporosis (osteoporotic fracture; HRadj 1.66, 1.08-2.54); risk increased by having both osteoporosis and reduced function (HRadj 2.53, 1.52-4.23). CONCLUSION:Older women with mild-moderate reduction of kidney function are at increased risk of fractures, but not those with the worst function. Our findings furthermore confirm the value of osteoporosis assessment and it is possible that in this age group, age-related decline of kidney function has limited contribution compared with BMD.

Project description:BackgroundThe secondary fracture prevention gap in the osteoporosis field has been previously described as a 'crisis'. Closing this gap is increasingly important in the context of accumulating evidence showing that an incident fragility fracture is associated with an increased risk of subsequent fracture within 1-2 years, known as imminent fracture risk. The objective of this study was to use health services data to characterize the time between index fragility fractures occurring at different osteoporotic sites and subsequent fractures.MethodsThis retrospective observational study used de-identified health services data from the publicly funded healthcare system in Ontario, the largest province of Canada. Patients aged > 65 with an index fragility fracture occurring between 2011 and 2015 were identified from the ICES Data Repository using International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes. We examined median time to subsequent fragility fractures for osteoporotic fracture sites until the end of follow-up (2017). BMD assessment and use of osteoporosis therapies following index fracture were also characterized.ResultsAmong 115,776 patients with an index fragility fracture, 17.8% incurred a second fragility fracture. Median time between index and second fracture occurring at any site was 555 days (interquartile range: 236-955). For each index fracture site examined, median time from index to second fracture was < 2 years. The proportion of patients with BMD assessment was 10.3% ≤1 year prior to and 16.4% ≤1 year post index fracture. The proportion of patients receiving osteoporosis therapy was 29.8% ≤1 year prior, 34.6% ≤1 year post, and 25.9% > 3 years post index fracture.ConclusionsThis cohort of Canadian patients aged > 65 years who experienced a fragility fracture at any site are at imminent risk of experiencing subsequent fracture within the next 2 years and should be proactively assessed and treated.

Dataset Information

Predictors of imminent risk of fracture in Medicare-enrolled men and women.

Publications

Predictors of imminent risk of fracture in Medicare-enrolled men and women.

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