Dataset Information

Prevalence of High-risk Plaques and Risk of Stroke in Patients With Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis: A Meta-analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Importance

There is an ongoing debate regarding the management of asymptomatic carotid stenosis. Previous studies have reported imaging features of high-risk plaques that could help to optimize the risk-benefit ratio of revascularization. However, such studies have not provided an accurate estimate of the prevalence of high-risk plaques and the associated annual incidence of ipsilateral ischemic cerebrovascular events to inform the design of clinical trials using a risk-oriented selection of patients before randomization.

Objective

To assess the relevance and feasibility of risk-oriented selection of patients for revascularization.

Data sources

A systematic search of PubMed and Ovid Embase from database inception to July 31, 2019, was performed.

Study selection

Prospective observational studies that reported prevalence of high-risk plaques and incidence of ipsilateral ischemic cerebrovascular events were included.

Data extraction and synthesis

Aggregated data were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Data were analyzed from December 16, 2019, to January 15, 2020.

Main outcomes and measures

Prevalence of high-risk plaques and annual incidence of ipsilateral ischemic events.

Results

Overall, 64 studies enrolling 20 751 participants aged 29 to 95 years (mean age range, 55.0-76.5 years; proportion of men, 45%-87%) were included in the meta-analysis. Among all participants, the pooled prevalence of high-risk plaques was 26.5% (95% CI, 22.9%-30.3%). The most prevalent high-risk plaque features were neovascularization (43.4%; 95% CI, 31.4%-55.8%) in 785 participants, echolucency (42.3%; 95% CI, 32.2%-52.8%) in 12 364 participants, and lipid-rich necrotic core (36.3%; 95% CI, 27.7%-45.2%) in 3728 participants. The overall incidence of ipsilateral ischemic cerebrovascular events was 3.2 events per 100 person-years (22 cohorts with 10 381 participants; mean follow-up period, 2.8 years; range, 0.7-6.5 years). The incidence of ipsilateral ischemic cerebrovascular events was higher in patients with high-risk plaques (4.3 events per 100 person-years; 95% CI, 2.5-6.5 events per 100 person-years) than in those without high-risk plaques (1.2 events per 100 person-years; 95% CI, 0.6-1.8 events per 100 person-years), with an odds ratio of 3.0 (95% CI, 2.1-4.3; I2 = 48.8%). In studies focusing on severe stenosis (9 cohorts with 2128 participants; mean follow-up period, 2.8 years; range, 1.4-6.5 years), the incidence of ipsilateral ischemic cerebrovascular events was 3.7 events per 100 person-years (95% CI, 1.9-6.0 events per 100 person-years). The incidence of ipsilateral ischemic cerebrovascular events was also higher in patients with high-risk plaques (7.3 events per 100 person-years; 95% CI, 2.0-15.0 events per 100 person-years) than in those without high-risk plaques (1.7 events per 100 person-years; 95% CI, 0.6-3.3 events per 100 person-years), with an odds ratio of 3.2 (95% CI, 1.7-5.9; I2 = 39.6%).

Conclusions and relevance

High-risk plaques are common in patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis, and the associated risk of an ipsilateral ischemic cerebrovascular event is higher than the currently accepted estimates. Extension of routine assessment of asymptomatic carotid stenosis beyond the grade of stenosis may help improve risk stratification and optimize therapy.

SUBMITTER: Kamtchum-Tatuene J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7400201 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:ImportanceRandomized clinical trials have demonstrated that patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis are eligible for carotid endarterectomy (CEA) if the 30-day surgical complication rate is less than 3% and the patient's life expectancy is at least 5 years.ObjectiveTo develop a risk prediction tool to improve patient selection for CEA among patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis.Design, setting, and participantsIn this cohort study, veterans 65 years and older who received both carotid imaging and CEA in the Veterans Administration between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2009 (n = 2325) were followed up for 5 years. Data were analyzed from January 2005 to December 2015. A risk prediction tool (the Carotid Mortality Index [CMI]) based on 23 candidate variables identified in the literature was developed using Veterans Administration and Medicare data. A simpler model based on the number of 4 key comorbidities that were prevalent and strongly associated with 5-year mortality was also developed (any cancer in the past 5 years, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, congestive heart failure, and chronic kidney disease [the 4C model]). Model performance was assessed using measures of discrimination (eg, area under the curve [AUC]) and calibration. Internal validation was performed by correcting for optimism using 500 bootstrapped samples.Main outcome and measureFive-year mortality.ResultsAmong 2325 veterans, the mean (SD) age was 73.74 (5.92) years. The cohort was predominantly male (98.8%) and of white race/ethnicity (94.4%). Overall, 29.5% (n = 687) of patients died within 5 years of CEA. On the basis of a backward selection algorithm, 9 patient characteristics were selected (age, chronic kidney disease, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, any cancer diagnosis in the past 5 years, congestive heart failure, atrial fibrillation, remote stroke or transient ischemic attack, and body mass index) for the final logistic model, which yielded an optimism-corrected AUC of 0.687 for the CMI. The 4C model had slightly worse discrimination (AUC, 0.657) compared with the CMI model; however, the calibration curve was similar to the full model in most of the range of predicted probabilities.Conclusions and relevanceAccording to results of this study, use of the CMI or the simpler 4C model may improve patient selection for CEA among patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis.