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Breast cancer risk based on adapted IBIS prediction model in Slovenian women aged 40-49 years - could it be better?

ABSTRACT: Background The aim of the study was to assess the proportion of women that would be classified as at above-average risk of breast cancer based on the 10 year-risk prediction of the Slovenian breast cancer incidence rate (S-IBIS) program in two presumably above-average breast cancer risk populations in age group 40-49 years: (i) women referred for any reason to diagnostic breast centres and (ii) women who were diagnosed with breast cancer aged 40-49 years. Breast cancer is the commonest female cancer in Slovenia, with an incidence rate below European average. The Tyrer-Cuzick breast cancer risk assessment algorithm was recently adapted to S-IBIS. In Slovenia a tailored mammographic screening for women at above average risk in age group 40-49 years is considered in the future. S-IBIS is a possible tool to select population at above-average risk of breast cancer for tailored screening. Patients and methods In 357 healthy women aged 40-49 years referred for any reason to diagnostic breast centres and in 367 female breast cancer patients aged 40-49 years at time of diagnosis 10-years breast cancer risk was calculated using the S-IBIS software. The proportion of women classified as above-average risk of breast cancer was calculated for each subgroup of the study population. Results 48.7% of women in the Breast centre group and 39.2% of patients in the breast cancer group had above-average 10-year breast cancer risk. Positive family history of breast cancer was more prevalent in the Breast centre group (p < 0.05). Conclusions Inclusion of additional risk factors into the S-IBIS is warranted in the populations with breast cancer incidence below European average to reliably stratify women into breast cancer risk groups.

SUBMITTER: Oblak T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7409597 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Breast cancer risk based on adapted IBIS prediction model in Slovenian women aged 40-49 years - could it be better?

Oblak Tjasa T Zadnik Vesna V Krajc Mateja M Lokar Katarina K Zgajnar Janez J

Radiology and oncology 20200702 3

Background The aim of the study was to assess the proportion of women that would be classified as at above-average risk of breast cancer based on the 10 year-risk prediction of the Slovenian breast cancer incidence rate (S-IBIS) program in two presumably above-average breast cancer risk populations in age group 40-49 years: (i) women referred for any reason to diagnostic breast centres and (ii) women who were diagnosed with breast cancer aged 40-49 years. Breast cancer is the commonest female ca ...[more]

PMID: 32614783

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Project description:PurposeTo analyze trends in detection method related to breast cancer stage at diagnosis, treatments, and outcomes over time among 40-49-year-old women.Materials and methodsi This study was institutional review board approved, with a waiver of informed consent, and HIPAA compliant. A longitudinal prospective cohort study was conducted of women aged 40-49 years who had primary breast cancer, during 1990-2008, and were identified and tracked by a dedicated registry database (n = 1977). Method of detection--patient detected (PtD), physician detected (PhysD), or mammography detected (MamD)--was chart abstracted. Disease-specific survival and relapse-free survival statistics were calculated by using the Kaplan-Meier method for stage I-IV breast cancer.ResultsA significant increase in the percentage of MamD breast cancer over time (28%-58%) and a concurrent decline in patient and physician detected (Pt/PhysD) breast cancer (73%-42%) (Pearson x(2) = 72.72, P < .001) were observed over time from 1990 to 2008, with an overall increase in lower-stage disease detection and a decrease in higher-stage disease. MamD breast cancer patients were more likely to undergo lumpectomy (67% vs 48% of Pt/PhysD breast cancer patients) and less likely to undergo modified radical mastectomy (25% vs 47% of the Pt/PhysD breast cancer patients) (P < .001). Uncorrected for stage, 13% of MamD breast cancer patients underwent surgery and chemotherapy versus 22% of Pt/PhysD breast cancer patients (P < .001), and 31% of MamD breast cancer patients underwent surgery, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy versus 59% of Pt/PhysD breast cancer patients (x(2) = 305.13, P < .001). Analyzing invasive cancers only, 5-year relapse-free survival for MamD breast cancer patients was 92% versus 88% for Pt/PhysD patients (log-rank test, 12.47; P < .001).ConclusionIncreased mammography-detected breast cancer over time coincided with lower-stage disease detection resulting in reduced treatment and lower rates of recurrence, adding factors to consider when evaluating the benefits of mammography screening of women aged 40-49 years.

Project description:Identifying risk factors for breast cancer specific to women in their 40s could inform screening decisions.To determine what factors increase risk for breast cancer in women aged 40 to 49 years and the magnitude of risk for each factor.MEDLINE (January 1996 to the second week of November 2011), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (fourth quarter of 2011), Scopus, reference lists of published studies, and the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium.English-language studies and systematic reviews of risk factors for breast cancer in women aged 40 to 49 years. Additional inclusion criteria were applied for each risk factor.Data on participants, study design, analysis, follow-up, and outcomes were abstracted. Study quality was rated by using established criteria, and only studies rated as good or fair were included. Results were summarized by using meta-analysis when sufficient studies were available or from the best evidence based on study quality, size, and applicability when meta-analysis was not possible. Data from the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium were analyzed with proportional hazards models by using partly conditional Cox regression. Reference groups for comparisons were set at U.S. population means.Sixty-six studies provided data for estimates. Extremely dense breasts on mammography or first-degree relatives with breast cancer were associated with at least a 2-fold increase in risk for breast cancer. Prior breast biopsy, second-degree relatives with breast cancer, or heterogeneously dense breasts were associated with a 1.5- to 2.0-fold increased risk; current use of oral contraceptives, nulliparity, and age 30 years or older at first birth were associated with a 1.0- to 1.5-fold increased risk.Studies varied by measures, reference groups, and adjustment for confounders, which could bias combined estimates. Effects of multiple risk factors were not considered.Extremely dense breasts and first-degree relatives with breast cancer were each associated with at least a 2-fold increase in risk for breast cancer in women aged 40 to 49 years. Identification of these risk factors may be useful for personalized mammography screening.National Cancer Institute.

Project description:Background: Breast cancer screening practices and the influence of clinical guidelines or recommendations are well documented for physicians, but little is known about the screening practices of nonphysician providers (physician assistants and advanced practice registered nurses). The seven breast cancer screening guidelines or recommendations on the use of mammography have the most variation for screening average-risk women 40-49 years of age. Therefore, to better understand the practices of nonphysicians, this study will compare the practices of physicians with nonphysician providers for women 40-49 years of age. Materials and Methods: Minnesota physicians and nonphysicians were e-mailed an anonymous cross-sectional survey, which asked primary care providers about their mammography screening practices for average-risk women 40-44 and 45-49 years of age and to rate the influence of seven breast cancer screening recommendations on the use of mammography in their practice. Comparisons across providers' demographic and professional characteristics were conducted using chi-squared and Fisher's exact tests, as appropriate, and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Results: Of the respondents who practiced primary care (193 physicians, 50 physician assistants, and 197 advanced practice registered nurses), 66.7% reported recommending mammography for women at ages 40-44 and 77.2% recommended mammography for women at ages 45-49. Nonphysician providers were more likely to recommend screening in both these age groups (p?<?0.05). Having a self-identified interest in women's health was associated with more mammography screening in both age groups. The American Cancer Society guideline was endorsed as influential by the most respondents. Conclusions: Breast cancer screening practices vary between physicians and nonphysician providers for women 40-49 years of age at average risk. Targeted interventions may help reduce practice variation and ensure high-value care.

Project description:BackgroundCompared with women aged 50-69 years, the lower sensitivity of mammographic screening in women aged 40-49 years is largely attributed to the lower mammographic tumor detectability and faster tumor growth in the younger women.MethodsWe used a Monte Carlo simulation model of breast cancer screening by age to estimate the median tumor size detectable on a mammogram and the mean tumor volume doubling time. The estimates were calculated by calibrating the predicted breast cancer incidence rates to the actual rates from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and the predicted distributions of screen-detected tumor sizes to the actual distributions obtained from the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC). The calibrated parameters were used to estimate the relative impact of lower mammographic tumor detectability vs faster tumor volume doubling time on the poorer screening outcomes in younger women compared with older women. Mammography screening outcomes included sensitivity, mean tumor size at detection, lifetime gained, and breast cancer mortality. In addition, the relationship between screening sensitivity and breast cancer mortality was investigated as a function of tumor volume doubling time, mammographic tumor detectability, and screening interval.ResultsLowered mammographic tumor detectability accounted for 79% and faster tumor volume doubling time accounted for 21% of the poorer sensitivity of mammography screening in younger women compared with older women. The relative contributions were similar when the impact of screening was evaluated in terms of mean tumor size at detection, lifetime gained, and breast cancer mortality. Screening sensitivity and breast cancer mortality reduction attributable to screening were almost linearly related when comparing annual or biennial screening with no screening. However, when comparing annual with biennial screening, the greatest reduction in breast cancer mortality attributable to screening did not correspond to the greatest gain in screening sensitivity and was more strongly affected by the mammographic tumor detectability than tumor volume doubling time.ConclusionThe age-specific differences in mammographic tumor detection contribute more than age-specific differences in tumor growth rates to the lowered performance of mammography screening in younger women.

Project description:OBJECTIVE:To clarify how race is associated with adverse maternal outcomes and risk for women aged 40 years or older. METHODS:This retrospective cohort study used the Nationwide Inpatient Sample for the years 1998-2014. Women aged 40-54 years were included. Race and ethnicity were categorized as non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, Hispanic, Asian or Pacific Islander, Native American, other, and unknown. Temporal trends in severe maternal morbidity and overall comorbid risk by race in women aged 40 years or older were evaluated as were common pregnancy complications including preeclampsia, gestational diabetes, and cesarean delivery. Adjusted models were created to assess factors associated with severe morbidity. RESULTS:A total of 1,724,694 deliveries were included in this analysis. Severe maternal morbidity increased over the study period from 1.6% in 1998-2000 to 3.0% from 2013 to 2014. Black women had the highest rates of severe morbidity at both the beginning (2.4% in 1998-2000) and the end (4.9% in 2013-2014) of the study period. During this same period, comorbid risk based on medical conditions and other factors increased overall and individually by race. Black women also experienced the absolute largest increase from 1998-2003 to 2010-2014 in risk for acute renal failure, disseminated intravascular coagulation, transfusion, and hysterectomy. Pregnancy complications including preeclampsia, cesarean delivery, and gestational diabetes were more common at the end compared with the beginning of the study for black, white, and Hispanic women. The adjusted risk ratio for overall severe morbidity for black compared with white race was 1.81 (95% CI 1.76-1.87). Black women had a substantially higher risk of death than white women (risk ratio 4.71, 95% CI 3.36-6.61), and Hispanic women had more than twice the risk of death (risk ratio 2.13, 95% CI 1.48-3.07) as white women. CONCLUSION:Although black women older than 40 years were at increased risk for adverse outcomes and severe morbidity, this differential was of smaller magnitude than reported mortality risk.

Project description:Background Risk-based screening in women 40-49 years old has not been evaluated in routine screening mammography practice. Purpose To use a cross-sectional study design to compare the trade-offs of risk-based and age-based screening for women 45 years of age or older to determine short-term outcomes. Materials and Methods A retrospective cross-sectional study was performed by using a database of 20 539 prospectively interpreted consecutive digital screening mammograms in 10 280 average-risk women aged 40-49 years who were screened at an academic medical center between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2013. Two hypothetical screening scenarios were compared: an age-based (≥45 years) scenario versus a risk-based (a 5-year risk of breast cancer greater than that of an average 50-year-old) scenario. Risk factors for risk-based screening included family history, race, age, prior breast biopsy, and breast density. Outcomes included breast cancers detected at mammography, false-positive mammograms, and benign biopsy findings. Short-term outcomes were compared by using the χ2 test. Results The screening population included 71 148 screening mammograms in 24 928 women with a mean age of 55.5 years ± 8.9 (standard deviation) (age range, 40-74 years). In women 40-49 years old, usual care included 50 screening-detected cancers, 1787 false-positive mammograms, and 384 benign biopsy results. The age-based (≥45 years) screening strategy revealed more cancers than did the risk-based strategy (34 [68%] vs 13 [26%] of 50; P < .001), while prompting more false-positive mammograms (899 [50.3%] vs 216 [12.1%] of 1787; P < .001) and benign biopsy results (175 [45.6%] vs 49 [12.8%] of 384; P < .001). The risk-based strategy demonstrated low levels of eligibility (few screenings) in the 40-44-year age group. Differences in outcomes in the 45-49-year age group explained the overall hypothetical screening strategy differences. Conclusion Risk-based screening for women 40-49 years old includes few women in the 40-44-year age range. Significant trade-offs in the 45-49-year age group explain the overall difference between hypothetical screening scenarios, both of which reduce the benefits as well as the harms of mammography for women 40-49 years old. © RSNA, 2019 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Joe and Hayward in this issue.

Dataset Information

Breast cancer risk based on adapted IBIS prediction model in Slovenian women aged 40-49 years - could it be better?

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Breast cancer risk based on adapted IBIS prediction model in Slovenian women aged 40-49 years - could it be better?

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