Modeling the COVID-19 Outbreak in China through Multi-source Information Fusion.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Wu L
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7409870 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is rapidly spreading in China and more than 30 countries over last two months. COVID-19 has multiple characteristics distinct from other infectious diseases, including high infectivity during incubation, time delay between real dynamics and daily observed number of confirmed cases, and the intervention effects of implemented quarantine and control measures.MethodsWe develop a Susceptible, Un-quanrantined infected, Quarantined infected, Confirmed infected (SUQC) model to characterize the dynamics of COVID-19 and explicitly parameterize the intervention effects of control measures, which is more suitable for analysis than other existing epidemic models.ResultsThe SUQC model is applied to the daily released data of the confirmed infections to analyze the outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, Hubei (excluding Wuhan), China (excluding Hubei) and four first-tier cities of China. We found that, before January 30, 2020, all these regions except Beijing had a reproductive number R > 1, and after January 30, all regions had a reproductive number R < 1, indicating that the quarantine and control measures are effective in preventing the spread of COVID-19. The confirmation rate of Wuhan estimated by our model is 0.0643, substantially lower than that of Hubei excluding Wuhan (0.1914), and that of China excluding Hubei (0.2189), but it jumps to 0.3229 after February 12 when clinical evidence was adopted in new diagnosis guidelines. The number of unquarantined infected cases in Wuhan on February 12, 2020 is estimated to be 3,509 and declines to 334 on February 21, 2020. After fitting the model with data as of February 21, 2020, we predict that the end time of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Hubei is around late March, around mid March for China excluding Hubei, and before early March 2020 for the four tier-one cities. A total of 80,511 individuals are estimated to be infected in China, among which 49,510 are from Wuhan, 17,679 from Hubei (excluding Wuhan), and the rest 13,322 from other regions of China (excluding Hubei). Note that the estimates are from a deterministic ODE model and should be interpreted with some uncertainty.ConclusionsWe suggest that rigorous quarantine and control measures should be kept before early March in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and before late March in Hubei. The model can also be useful to predict the trend of epidemic and provide quantitative guide for other countries at high risk of outbreak, such as South Korea, Japan, Italy and Iran.Supplementary materialsThe supplementary materials can be found online with this article at 10.1007/s40484-020-0199-0.
| S-EPMC7095099 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:In December 2019, a few coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases were first reported in Wuhan, Hubei, China. Soon after, increasing numbers of cases were detected in other parts of China, eventually leading to a disease outbreak in China. As this dreadful disease spreads rapidly, the mass media has been active in community education on COVID-19 by delivering health information about this novel coronavirus, such as its pathogenesis, spread, prevention, and containment. OBJECTIVE:The aim of this study was to collect media reports on COVID-19 and investigate the patterns of media-directed health communications as well as the role of the media in this ongoing COVID-19 crisis in China. METHODS:We adopted the WiseSearch database to extract related news articles about the coronavirus from major press media between January 1, 2020, and February 20, 2020. We then sorted and analyzed the data using Python software and Python package Jieba. We sought a suitable topic number with evidence of the coherence number. We operated latent Dirichlet allocation topic modeling with a suitable topic number and generated corresponding keywords and topic names. We then divided these topics into different themes by plotting them into a 2D plane via multidimensional scaling. RESULTS:After removing duplications and irrelevant reports, our search identified 7791 relevant news reports. We listed the number of articles published per day. According to the coherence value, we chose 20 as the number of topics and generated the topics' themes and keywords. These topics were categorized into nine main primary themes based on the topic visualization figure. The top three most popular themes were prevention and control procedures, medical treatment and research, and global or local social and economic influences, accounting for 32.57% (n=2538), 16.08% (n=1258), and 11.79% (n=919) of the collected reports, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:Topic modeling of news articles can produce useful information about the significance of mass media for early health communication. Comparing the number of articles for each day and the outbreak development, we noted that mass media news reports in China lagged behind the development of COVID-19. The major themes accounted for around half the content and tended to focus on the larger society rather than on individuals. The COVID-19 crisis has become a worldwide issue, and society has become concerned about donations and support as well as mental health among others. We recommend that future work addresses the mass media's actual impact on readers during the COVID-19 crisis through sentiment analysis of news data.
| S-EPMC7189789 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Accurately obtaining roll angles is one of the key technologies to improve the positioning accuracy and operation quality of agricultural equipment. Given the demand for the acquisition of agricultural equipment roll angles, a roll angle monitoring model based on Kalman filtering and multi-source information fusion was established by using the MTi-300 AHRS inertial sensor (INS) and XW-GI 5630 BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS), which were installed on agricultural equipment. Data of the INS and BDS were fused by MATLAB; then, Kalman filter was used to optimize the data, and the state equation and measurement equation of the integrated system were established. Then, an integrated monitoring terminal man-machine interactive interface was designed on MATLAB GUI, and a roll angle monitoring system based on the INS and BDS was designed and applied into field experiments. The mean absolute error of the integrated monitoring system based on multi-source information fusion during field experiments was 0.72°, which was smaller compared with the mean absolute errors of roll angle monitored by the INS and BDS independently (0.78° and 0.75°, respectively). Thus, the roll angle integrated model improves monitoring precision and underlies future research on navigation and independent operation of agricultural equipment.
| S-EPMC7181222 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Since December 2019, China has experienced a widespread outbreak of COVID-19. However, at the early stage of outbreak, investigations revealed a variety of patterns resulting in the transmission of COVID-19. Thus, it is essential to understand the transmission types and the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission. Moreover, the information regarding the characteristics of transmission helps in coordinating the current screening programme, and controlling and containing measures, and also, helps in deciding the appropriate quarantine duration. Thus, this investigation reports an outbreak of COVID-19 in a family residing in Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China during the month of January-February 2020.
| S-EPMC7267103 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), infected over 3300 healthcare workers in early 2020 in China. Little information is known about nosocomial infections of healthcare workers in the initial period. We analysed data from healthcare workers with nosocomial infections in Wuhan Union Hospital (Wuhan, China) and their family members. We collected and analysed data on exposure history, illness timelines and epidemiological characteristics from 25 healthcare workers with laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and two healthcare workers in whom COVID-19 was highly suspected, as well as 10 of their family members with COVID-19, between 5 January and 12 February 2020. The demographics and clinical features of the 35 laboratory-confirmed cases were investigated and viral RNA of 12 cases was sequenced and analysed. Nine clusters were found among the patients. All patients showed mild to moderate clinical manifestation and recovered without deterioration. The mean period of incubation was 4.5 days, the mean±sd clinical onset serial interval (COSI) was 5.2±3.2 days, and the median virus shedding time was 18.5 days. Complete genomic sequences of 12 different coronavirus strains demonstrated that the viral structure, with small irrelevant mutations, was stable in the transmission chains and showed remarkable traits of infectious traceability. SARS-CoV-2 can be rapidly transmitted from person to person, regardless of whether they have symptoms, in both hospital settings and social activities, based on the short period of incubation and COSI. The public health service should take practical measures to curb the spread, including isolation of cases, tracing close contacts, and containment of severe epidemic areas. Besides this, healthcare workers should be alert during the epidemic and self-quarantine if self-suspected of infection.
| S-EPMC7236818 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC7656330 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Cases of a novel coronavirus were first reported in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, in December 2019 and have since spread across the world. Epidemiological studies have indicated human-to-human transmission in China and elsewhere. To aid the analysis and tracking of the COVID-19 epidemic we collected and curated individual-level data from national, provincial, and municipal health reports, as well as additional information from online reports. All data are geo-coded and, where available, include symptoms, key dates (date of onset, admission, and confirmation), and travel history. The generation of detailed, real-time, and robust data for emerging disease outbreaks is important and can help to generate robust evidence that will support and inform public health decision making.
| S-EPMC7093412 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Latvian SARS-CoV-2 isolate genetic diveristy
| PRJEB40188 | ENA
Project description:The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) surges worldwide. However, massive imported patients especially into Heilongjiang Province in China recently have been an alert for local COVID-19 outbreak. We collected data from January 23 to March 25 from Heilongjiang province and trained an ordinary differential equation model to fit the epidemic data. We extended the simulation using this trained model to characterize the effect of an imported 'escaper'. We showed that an imported 'escaper' was responsible for the newly confirmed COVID-19 infections from Apr 9 to Apr 19 in Heilongjiang province. Stochastic simulations further showed that significantly increased local contacts among imported 'escaper', its epidemiologically associated cases and susceptible populations greatly contributed to the local outbreak of COVID-19. Meanwhile, we further found that the reported number of asymptomatic patients was markedly lower than model predictions implying a large asymptomatic pool which was not identified. We further forecasted the effect of implementing strong interventions immediately to impede COVID-19 outbreak for Heilongjiang province. Implementation of stronger interventions to lower mutual contacts could accelerate the complete recovery from coronavirus infections in Heilongjiang province. Collectively, our model has characterized the epidemic of COVID-19 in Heilongjiang province and implied that strongly controlled measured should be taken for infected and asymptomatic patients to minimize total infections.
| S-EPMC7256610 | biostudies-literature