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Predictors of radiological aggravations of pulmonary MAC disease.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES:The number of patients with pulmonary Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) disease is increasing worldwide, especially among middle-aged women and never-smokers. However, little is known about the factors causing exacerbations of pulmonary MAC disease in untreated patients. The aim of the present study was to identify the predictors of radiological aggravations of pulmonary MAC disease. METHODS:From April 2011 to December 2018, 238 MAC patients at our institute were newly diagnosed with pulmonary MAC disease according to the 2007 American Thoracic Society/Infectious Disease Society guideline. Their medical records were examined retrospectively for their clinical findings. The radiological findings at the time of the diagnosis and 1 year later were evaluated. To identify the predictors of radiological aggravation, multivariable analysis was performed with the data of 167 treatment-naïve patients. RESULTS:Female, never-smoker, and nodular/bronchiectatic (NB) type were predominant in patients with pulmonary MAC disease. Univariate analysis of data from treatment-naïve subjects showed that no lung diseases other than MAC, extensive radiological findings, and a positive acid-fast bacilli (AFB) smear were significantly associated with radiological aggravations. On multivariate analysis, the radiological factor (larger affected area) and absence of other lung disease were significantly associated with radiological aggravations. In particular, the presence of abnormal shadows in more than 3 lobes was significantly associated with radiological aggravations. CONCLUSIONS:In this study, the presence of extensive radiological findings and the absence of lung diseases other than MAC were predictors of radiological aggravations of treatment-naïve pulmonary MAC disease. In particular, the presence of abnormal shadows in more than 3 lobes was significantly associated with radiological aggravations.

SUBMITTER: Kodaka N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7410298 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictors of radiological aggravations of pulmonary MAC disease.

Kodaka Norio N Nakano Chihiro C Oshio Takeshi T Watanabe Kayo K Niitsuma Kumiko K Imaizumi Chisato C Matsuse Hiroto H

PloS one 20200806 8

<h4>Background and objectives</h4>The number of patients with pulmonary Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) disease is increasing worldwide, especially among middle-aged women and never-smokers. However, little is known about the factors causing exacerbations of pulmonary MAC disease in untreated patients. The aim of the present study was to identify the predictors of radiological aggravations of pulmonary MAC disease.<h4>Methods</h4>From April 2011 to December 2018, 238 MAC patients at our instit ...[more]

PMID: 32760104

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Project description:IntroductionDespite the exalted status of sputum mycobacterial load for gauging pulmonary tuberculosis treatment and progress, Chest X-rays supplement valuable information for taking instantaneous therapeutic decisions, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Even though literature on individual parameters is overwhelming, few studies have explored the interaction between radiographic parameters denoting severity with mycobacterial burden signifying infectivity. By using a sophisticated approach of integrating Chest X-ray parameters with sputum mycobacterial characteristics, evaluated at all the three crucial time points of TB treatment namely pre-treatment, end of intensive phase and completion of treatment, utilizing the interactive Cox Proportional Hazards model, we aimed to precisely deduce predictors of unfavorable response to TB treatment.Materials and methodWe extracted de-identified data from well characterized clinical trial cohorts that recruited rifampicin-sensitive Pulmonary TB patients without any comorbidities, taking their first spell of anti-tuberculosis therapy under supervision and meticulous follow up for 24 months post treatment completion, to accurately predict TB outcomes. Radiographic data independently obtained, interpreted by two experienced pulmonologists was collated with demographic details and, sputum smear and culture grades of participants by an independent statistician and analyzed using the Cox Proportional Hazards model, to not only adjust for confounding factors including treatment effect, but also explore the interaction between radiological and bacteriological parameters for better therapeutic application.ResultsOf 667 TB patients with data available, cavitation, extent of involvement, lower zone involvement, smear and culture grade at baseline were significant parameters predisposing to an unfavorable TB treatment outcome in the univariate analysis. Reduction in radiological lesions in Chest X-ray by at least 50% at 2 months and 75% at the end of treatment helped in averting unfavorable responses. Smear and Culture conversion at the end of 2 months was highly significant as a predictor (p<0.001). In the multivariate analysis, the adjusted hazards ratios (HR) for an unfavorable response to TB therapy for extent of involvement, baseline cavitation and persistence (post treatment) were 1.21 (95% CI: 1.01-1.44), 1.73 (95% CI: 1.05-2.84) and 2.68 (95% CI: 1.4-5.12) respectively. A 3+ smear had an HR of 1.94 (95% CI: 0.81-4.64). Further probing into the interaction, among patients with 3+ and 2+ smears, HRs for cavitation were 3.26 (95% CI: 1.33-8.00) and 1.92 (95% CI: 0.80-4.60) while for >2 zones, were 3.05 (95% CI: 1.12-8.23) and 1.92 (95% CI: 0.72-5.08) respectively. Patients without cavitation, zonal involvement <2, and a smear grade less than 2+ had a better prognosis and constituted minimal disease.ConclusionBaseline Cavitation, Opacities occupying >2 zones and 3+ smear grade individually and independently forecasted a poorer TB outcome. The interaction model revealed that Zonal involvement confined to 2 zones, without a cavity and smear grade up to 2+, constituting "minimal disease", had a better prognosis. Radiological clearance >50% along with smear conversion at the end of intensive phase of treatment, observed to be a reasonable alternative to culture conversion in predicting a successful outcome. These parameters may potentially take up key positions as stratification factors for future trials contemplating on shorter TB regimens.

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Predictors of radiological aggravations of pulmonary MAC disease.

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Predictors of radiological aggravations of pulmonary MAC disease.

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