Climate based malaria forecasting system for Andhra Pradesh, India.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Mopuri R
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7410916 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:The present study was conducted during the years 2006 to 2012 and provides information on prevalence of malaria and its regulation with effect to various climatic factors in East Siang district of Arunachal Pradesh, India. Correlation analysis, Principal Component Analysis and Hotelling's T² statistics models are adopted to understand the effect of weather variables on malaria transmission. The epidemiological study shows that the prevalence of malaria is mostly caused by the parasite Plasmodium vivax followed by Plasmodium falciparum. It is noted that, the intensity of malaria cases declined gradually from the year 2006 to 2012. The transmission of malaria observed was more during the rainy season, as compared to summer and winter seasons. Further, the data analysis study with Principal Component Analysis and Hotelling's T² statistic has revealed that the climatic variables such as temperature and rainfall are the most influencing factors for the high rate of malaria transmission in East Siang district of Arunachal Pradesh.
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Project description:Traditionally, the distribution of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis genotypes in India has been characterized by widespread prevalence of ancestral lineages (TbD1+ strains and variants) in the south and the modern forms (TbD1(-) CAS and variants) predominating in the north of India. The pattern was, however, not clearly known in the south-central region such as Hyderabad and the rest of the state of Andhra Pradesh where the prevalence of both tuberculosis (TB) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is one of the highest in the country; this area has been the hotspot of TB vaccine trials. Spoligotyping of 101 clinical isolates obtained from Hyderabad and rural Andhra Pradesh confirmed the occurrence of major genogroups such as the ancestral (or the TbD1+ type or the East African Indian (EAI) type), the Central Asian (CAS) or Delhi type and the Beijing lineage in Andhra Pradesh. Sixty five different spoligotype patterns were observed for the isolates included in this study; these were further analyzed based on specific genetic signatures/mutations. It was found that the major genogroups, CAS and "ancestral," were almost equally prevalent in our collection but followed a north-south compartmentalization as was also reported previously. However, we observed a significant presence of MANU lineage in south Andhra Pradesh, which was earlier reported to be overwhelmingly present in Mumbai. This study portrays genotypic diversity of M. tuberculosis from the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh and provides a much needed snapshot of the strain diversity that will be helpful in devising effective TB control programs in this part of the world.
| S-EPMC3219672 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Excess fluoride in drinking water has been one of the leading problem faced by the arid and semi-arid regions of the world. Significantly in India the people suffer from fluorosis comparing to other toxic elements like Arsenic etc., in drinking water. Approximately, in India the excessive fluoride in groundwater is noticed in 177 districts covering 21 states, affecting 66 million people, including 6 million children and Moreover, the latest estimation gives nearly 200 million people, from among 25 nations the world over, are affected by the deadly disease of fluorosis [1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [6], [7], [8], [9], [10], [11], [12], [13], [14]. The fluoride of the groundwater varies from 0.4 to 5.8 mg/L with a mean of 1.98 mg/L (Table 1 & 2), which indicates that the concentration of fluoride is not uniform in the study area. In general intake of small quantities of fluoride in the permissible limit of 0.5 to 1 mg/L is known to be beneficial for human health in production and maintenance of proper health. However, in India safe limit of fluoride in potable water is considered to be between 0.6 to 1.2 mg/L, less than 0.6 mg/L can cause dental caries, while higher than 1.2 mg/L leads to fluorosis [1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [6], [7], [8], [9], [10], [11], [12], [13], [14], [15], [16].
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| S-EPMC5498559 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Bluetongue (BT) is an infectious, arthropod-borne viral disease of domestic and wild ruminants caused by bluetongue virus (BTV), which is a double-stranded segmented RNA virus. Of the 26 confirmed BTV serotypes, 23 were reported in India based on the detection of antibodies or virus. In order to assess the prevalence of different serotypes in Andhra Pradesh, serum samples which were positive for BTV by group-specific antibody ELISA were subjected to type-specific neutralization of BTV serotypes 1, 2, 9, 10, 21 and 23. Of the 52 samples tested, 50.0, 44.23, 21.15, 26.92, 0, and 15.38 % neutralized BTV serotypes 1, 2, 9, 10, 21 and 23, respectively. However, 32.69 % of the ELISA positive sera could not neutralize any of these serotypes, indicating that there could be other serotype viruses (e.g., BTV-3 and -16) circulating in the State. This method can be used for surveillance of the circulating serotypes as well as for assessing the level of herd immunity, and assist in determining the vaccine strains to be used in multivalent vaccines.
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Project description:BackgroundInformation on cost-effectiveness of the range of HIV prevention interventions is a useful contributor to decisions on the best use of resources to prevent HIV. We conducted this assessment for the state of Andhra Pradesh that has the highest HIV burden in India.MethodsBased on data from a representative sample of 128 public-funded HIV prevention programs of 14 types in Andhra Pradesh, we have recently reported the number of HIV infections averted by each type of HIV prevention intervention and their cost. Using estimates of the age of onset of HIV infection, we used standard methods to calculate the cost per Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) saved as a measure of cost-effectiveness of each type of HIV prevention intervention.ResultsThe point estimates of the cost per DALY saved were less than US $50 for blood banks, men who have sex with men programmes, voluntary counselling and testing centres, prevention of parent to child transmission clinics, sexually transmitted infection clinics, and women sex worker programmes; between US $50 and 100 for truckers and migrant labourer programmes; more than US $100 and up to US $410 for composite, street children, condom promotion, prisoners and workplace programmes and mass media campaign for the general public. The uncertainty range around these estimates was very wide for several interventions, with the ratio of the high to the low estimates infinite for five interventions.ConclusionsThe point estimates for the cost per DALY saved from the averted HIV infections for all interventions was much lower than the per capita gross domestic product in this Indian state. While these indicative cost-effectiveness estimates can inform HIV control planning currently, the wide uncertainty range around estimates for several interventions suggest the need for more firm data for estimating cost-effectiveness of HIV prevention interventions in India.
| S-EPMC2874552 | biostudies-literature
Project description:India has one of the largest agricultural input support programs in the world, delivered in the form of subsidies to farmers, raising concerns about its sustainability. This paper evaluates the performance of one such support, the micronutrient subsidy program in the state of Andhra Pradesh (AP) and presents a case for providing this support in the form of direct cash transfers. Under the program, key soil micronutrients- zinc, boron, and gypsum were distributed free of cost to farmers living in micronutrient-deficient areas, with identification and targeting managed entirely by the state. We survey 1621 farmers, 61 agriculture extension officers, and 78 agriculture input dealers to assess the efficacy of the program and to identify bottlenecks preventing effective targeting, with a focus on zinc. We find that use of non-subsidized zinc is high in AP, and awareness of benefits of zinc and physical access to input dealer shops are significant predictors of zinc use. We argue that the free provision of micronutrients may have created demand among farmers, but there is little justification to continue subsidizing such a program at such high rates or resorting to public distribution. We find that micronutrient procurement and distribution has become a burden on extension staff and crowds out the private sector. Our analysis shows that the subsidy can benefit more farmers if it is channeled through the network of private fertilizer dealers. We use administrative data on budgetary outlays and digital soil maps to suggest fiscal redistribution in the form of direct cash transfers that may ensure more effective targeting at a lower cost to the state.
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Project description:From koppunuru study area totally 58 samples were collected in 7 different boreholes, minimum depth of 28 m and Maximum depth of 157.7 m. The borehole samples geochemical analysis (major and trace elements) was carried out at Atomic Minerals Directorate for Exploration & Research (AMD), Hyderabad, India. Major and trace element studies have been conducted on the Neoproterozoic Palnad sub-basin Andhra Pradesh, South India, to determine their Geochemistry, Uranium mineralization and provenance characteristics. Geochemically, this sedimentary basin has a different litho - unit like as gritty quartzite, conglomerate, and Shale. This study area mainly dominated by Uranium deposited and radioactive elements are predominately deposit. Strong positive correlation between Uranium and Lead (r = 0.887) suggested radiogenic nature of this system.
| S-EPMC5995752 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeTo report visual outcomes and risk factors for poor outcomes of cataract surgery in three Integrated Tribal Development Agency (ITDA) areas of Andhra Pradesh, India.Methods and resultsUsing validated Rapid Assessment of Avoidable Blindness (RAAB) methodology, a population based cross-sectional study, was conducted in three ITDA areas. A two-stage sampling procedure was used to select 7281 participants aged 50 years and above. Vision assessment using a tumbling E chart and standard ocular examinations were completed. Visual outcomes and risk factors for poor outcomes were assessed among subjects undergoing cataract surgery (1548 eyes of 1124 subjects). Mean age at surgery was 67±8 years; Among the operated eyes, presenting visual acuity (PVA) and best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) worse than 6/18 was seen in 492 (31.8%; 95% CI, 29.5-34.2%) and 298 eyes (19.3%; 95% CI, 17.3-21.3%), respectively. Similarly, PVA and BCVA worse than 6/60 was seen in 219 (14.1%; 95% CI, 12.4-16%) and 147 eyes (9.5%; 95% CI, 8.1-11.1%), respectively. When either eye was taken into consideration, the PVA and BCVA worse than 6/18 was seen in 323 (20.1%; 95% CI, 18.9-23%) and 144 subjects (9.3%; 95% CI, 7.9-10.9%), respectively. PVA and BCVA worse than 6/60 was seen in 74 (4.8%; 95% CI, 3.8-6%) and 49 subjects (3.2%; 95% CI, 2.4-4.2%), respectively. Posterior capsular opacification was seen in 51 of 1316 pseudophakic eyes (3.9%; 95% CI, 2.9-5.1%). In multivariable analysis among pseudophakic subjects with PVA worse than 6/18, increasing age (p?=?0.002) and undergoing free surgery (p?=?0.05) were independent risk factors. Undergoing surgery before 2005 (p?=?0.05) and being illiterate (p?=?0.05) were independent risk factors for BCVA worse than 6/18.ConclusionsThere are changing trends with improved outcomes in cataract surgery among these tribal populations of India. However, post-operative refractive error correction remains an issue, especially for those undergoing free surgeries.
| S-EPMC3342298 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Malaria presents public health challenge despite extensive intervention campaigns. A 30-year hindcast of the climatic suitability for malaria transmission in India is presented, using meteorological variables from a state of the art seasonal forecast model to drive a process-based, dynamic disease model.The spatial distribution and seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation from the forecast model are compared to three observationally-based meteorological datasets. These time series are then used to drive the disease model, producing a simulated forecast of malaria and three synthetic malaria time series that are qualitatively compared to contemporary and pre-intervention malaria estimates. The area under the Relative Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve is calculated as a quantitative metric of forecast skill, comparing the forecast to the meteorologically-driven synthetic malaria time series.The forecast shows probabilistic skill in predicting the spatial distribution of Plasmodium falciparum incidence when compared to the simulated meteorologically-driven malaria time series, particularly where modelled incidence shows high seasonal and interannual variability such as in Orissa, West Bengal, and Jharkhand (North-east India), and Gujarat, Rajastan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra (North-west India). Focusing on these two regions, the malaria forecast is able to distinguish between years of "high", "above average" and "low" malaria incidence in the peak malaria transmission seasons, with more than 70% sensitivity and a statistically significant area under the ROC curve. These results are encouraging given that the three month forecast lead time used is well in excess of the target for early warning systems adopted by the World Health Organization. This approach could form the basis of an operational system to identify the probability of regional malaria epidemics, allowing advanced and targeted allocation of resources for combatting malaria in India.
| S-EPMC4251696 | biostudies-other