Dataset Information

Assessment of Countries' Preparedness and Lockdown Effectiveness in Fighting COVID-19.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:The aim of this study was to assess the risks in confronting the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the ongoing lockdown effectiveness in each of Italy, Germany, Spain, France, and the United States using China's lockdown model simulation, and cases forecast until the plateau phase. METHODS:Quantitative and qualitative historical data analysis. Total Risk Assessment (TRA) evaluation tool was used to assess the pre-pandemic stage risks, pandemic threshold fast responsiveness, and the ongoing performance until plateau. The Infected Patient Ratio (IPR) tool was developed to measure the number of patients resulting from 1 infector during the incubation period. Both IPR and TRA were used together to forecast inflection points, plateau phases, intensive care units' and ventilators' breakpoints, and the Total Fatality Ratio. RESULTS:In Italy, Spain, France, Germany, and the United States, an inflection point is predicted within the first 15 d of April, to arrive at a plateau after another 30 to 80 d. Variations in IPR drop are expected due to variations in lockdown timing by each country, the extent of adherence to it, and the number of performed tests in each. CONCLUSIONS:Both qualitative (TRA) and quantitative (IPR) tools can be used together for assessing and minimizing the pandemic risks and for more precise forecasting.

SUBMITTER: Amer F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7411444 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Assessment of Countries' Preparedness and Lockdown Effectiveness in Fighting COVID-19.

Amer Faten F Hammoud Sahar S Farran Bashar B Boncz Imre I Endrei Dóra D

Disaster medicine and public health preparedness 20200624 2

<h4>Objectives</h4>The aim of this study was to assess the risks in confronting the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the ongoing lockdown effectiveness in each of Italy, Germany, Spain, France, and the United States using China's lockdown model simulation, and cases forecast until the plateau phase.<h4>Methods</h4>Quantitative and qualitative historical data analysis. Total Risk Assessment (TRA) evaluation tool was used to assess the pre-pandemic stage risks, pandemic threshold f ...[more]

PMID: 32576332

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Project description:RationaleThe coronavirus pandemic has forced governments to implement a variety of different dynamic lockdown-stringency strategies in the last two years. Extensive lockdown periods could have potential unintended consequences on mental health, at least for at-risk groups.ObjectiveWe present novel evidence on the heterogeneous direct and indirect effects of lockdown-stringency measures on individuals' perception of social isolation (i.e. loneliness) using panel data from five European countries (Germany, France, Spain, Italy and Sweden), which tracks changes in both in-person and remote social interactions between May 2020 and March 2021.MethodWe combine data from the COME-HERE panel survey (University of Luxembourg) and the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT). We implement a dynamic mixture model in order to estimate the loneliness sub-population classes based on the severity of loneliness, as well as the evolution of social interactions.ResultsWhile loneliness is remarkably persistent over time, we find substantial heterogeneity across individuals, identifying four latent groups by loneliness severity. Group membership probability varies with age, gender, education and cohabitation status. Moreover, we note significant differences in the impact of social interactions on loneliness by degree of severity. Older people are less likely to feel lonely, but were more affected by lockdown measures, partly due to a reduction in face-to-face interactions. On the contrary, the younger, especially those living alone, report high levels of loneliness that are largely unaffected by changes in the pandemic after lockdown measures were initially implemented.ConclusionsUnderstanding the heterogeneity in loneliness is key for the identification of at-risk populations that can be severely affected by extended lockdown measures. As part of public-health crisis-response systems, it is critical to develop support measures for older individuals living alone, as well as promoting continuous remote communication for individuals more likely to experience high levels of loneliness.

Dataset Information

Assessment of Countries' Preparedness and Lockdown Effectiveness in Fighting COVID-19.

Publications

Assessment of Countries' Preparedness and Lockdown Effectiveness in Fighting COVID-19.

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