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Understanding transmission and intervention for the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.

ABSTRACT: The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) severely threatens the public health worldwide, but the transmission mechanism and the effectiveness of mitigation measures remain uncertain. Here we assess the role of airborne transmission in spreading the disease and the effectiveness of face covering in preventing inter-human transmission for the top-fifteen infected U.S. states during March 1 and May 18, 2020. For all fifteen states, the curve of total confirmed infections exhibits an initial sub-exponential growth and a subsequent linear growth after implementing social distancing/stay-at-home orders. The linearity extends one to two months for the six states without mandated face covering and to the onset of mandated face covering for the other nine states with this measure, reflecting a dynamic equilibrium between first-order transmission kinetics and intervention. For the states with mandated face covering, significant deviation from this linearity and curve flattening occur after the onset of this measure for seven states, with exceptions for two states. Most states exhibit persistent upward trends in the daily new infections after social distancing/stay-at-home orders, while reversed downward or slowing trends occur for eight states after implementing mandated face covering. The inadequacy of social distancing and stay-at-home measures alone in preventing inter-human transmission is reflected by the continuous linear growth in the total infection curve after implementing these measures, which is mainly driven by airborne transmission. We estimate that the number of the total infections prevented by face covering reaches ~252,000 on May 18 in seven states, which is equivalent to ~17% of the total infections in the nation. We conclude that airborne transmission and face covering play the dominant role in spreading the disease and flattening the total infection curve, respectively. Our findings provide policymakers and the public with compelling evidence that universal face covering, in conjunction with social distancing and hand hygiene, represents the maximal protection against inter-human transmission and the combination of these intervention measures with rapid and extensive testing as well as contact tracing is crucial in containing the COVID-19 pandemic.

SUBMITTER: Li Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7413050 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Understanding transmission and intervention for the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.

Li Yixin Y Zhang Renyi R Zhao Jiayun J Molina Mario J MJ

The Science of the total environment 20200807

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) severely threatens the public health worldwide, but the transmission mechanism and the effectiveness of mitigation measures remain uncertain. Here we assess the role of airborne transmission in spreading the disease and the effectiveness of face covering in preventing inter-human transmission for the top-fifteen infected U.S. states during March 1 and May 18, 2020. For all fifteen states, the curve of total confirmed infections exhibits an ...[more]

PMID: 32798884

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Project description:BackgroundAlthough the direct toll of COVID-19 in the United States has been substantial, concerns have also arisen about the indirect effects of the pandemic. Hospitalizations for acute cardiovascular conditions have declined, raising concern that patients may be avoiding hospitals because of fear of contracting severe acute respiratory syndrome- coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). Other factors, including strain on health care systems, may also have had an indirect toll.ObjectivesThis investigation aimed to evaluate whether population-level deaths due to cardiovascular causes increased during the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsThe authors conducted an observational cohort study using data from the National Center for Health Statistics to evaluate the rate of deaths due to cardiovascular causes after the onset of the pandemic in the United States, from March 18, 2020, to June 2, 2020, relative to the period immediately preceding the pandemic (January 1, 2020 to March 17, 2020). Changes in deaths were compared with the same periods in the previous year.ResultsThere were 397,042 cardiovascular deaths from January 1, 2020, to June 2, 2020. Deaths caused by ischemic heart disease increased nationally after the onset of the pandemic in 2020, compared with changes over the same period in 2019 (ratio of the relative change in deaths per 100,000 in 2020 vs. 2019: 1.11, 95% confidence interval: 1.04 to 1.18). An increase was also observed for deaths caused by hypertensive disease (1.17, 95% confidence interval: 1.09 to 1.26), but not for heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, or other diseases of the circulatory system. New York City experienced a large relative increase in deaths caused by ischemic heart disease (2.39, 95% confidence interval: 1.39 to 4.09) and hypertensive diseases (2.64, 95% confidence interval: 1.52 to 4.56) during the pandemic. More modest increases in deaths caused by these conditions occurred in the remainder of New York State, New Jersey, Michigan, and Illinois but not in Massachusetts or Louisiana.ConclusionsThere was an increase in deaths caused by ischemic heart disease and hypertensive diseases in some regions of the United States during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings suggest that the pandemic may have had an indirect toll on patients with cardiovascular disease.

Project description:According to the parasite-stress theory, collectivism serves as a trait of ingroup assortative sociality, providing defense against infectious diseases. This study investigated the association between cultural collectivism and COVID-19 severity at the state (Study 1: N = 51), county (Study 2: N = 3,133), and daily (Study 3: N = 52,806) levels from the beginning of 2020 to the end of 2022. State-level collectivism was assessed using two distinct measures: the U.S. collectivism index, focusing on social interconnectedness and interdependence, and the subjective-culture individualism-collectivism index (reversed), capturing attitudes and beliefs related to religion, abortion, and same-sex marriage. By employing random-intercept multilevel models, the results demonstrated significant and negative effects of state-level collectivism, as measured by the U.S collectivism index, on COVID-19 cases per million, COVID-19 deaths per million, and composite COVID-19 severity index, after controlling for confounding factors, such as socioeconomic development, ecological threats, disease protective behaviors, cultural norms, and political influences. A mini meta-analysis (Study 4: N = 9) confirmed the significance of these effects across studies. These findings supported the proactive role of collectivism in defending against the novel coronavirus in the United States, aligning with the parasite-stress theory of sociality. However, the subjective-culture individualism-collectivism index (reversed) did not exhibit a significant relationship with COVID-19 severity when confounding factors were considered. The high correlation between the subjective-culture individualism-collectivism index (reversed) and the controlled variables suggested shared variance that could diminish its impact on COVID-19 outcomes. Accordingly, the present findings underscore the significance of accounting for confounding factors when examining the association between collectivism and COVID-19 severity at population level. By considering relevant confounding factors, researchers could gain a comprehensive understanding of the complex interplay between cultural collectivism and its influence on COVID-19 severity. Overall, this research contributes to our understanding of how cultural collectivism shapes the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, emphasizing the importance of adjusting for confounding effects in population level studies.

Project description:IntroductionInternational studies have demonstrated increasing rates of sexual dysfunction amidst the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic; however, the impact of the pandemic on female sexual function in the United States is unknown.AimTo assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on female sexual function and frequency in the United States.MethodsA pre-pandemic survey containing the Female Sexual Function Index (FSFI) and demographic questions was completed by adult women in the United States from October 20, 2019 and March 1, 2020. The same women were sent a follow-up survey also containing the FSFI, as well as the Patient Health Questionnaire for Depression and Anxiety with 4 items (PHQ-4), and questions pertaining to mask wearing habits, job loss, and relationship changes. Risk for female sexual dysfunction (RFSD) was defined as FSFI < 26.55.Main outcome measureDifferences in pre-pandemic and intra-pandemic female sexual function, measured by the FSFI, and sexual frequency.ResultsNinety-one women were included in this study. Overall FSFI significantly decreased during the pandemic (27.2 vs 28.8, P = .002), with domain-specific decreases in arousal (4.41 vs 4.86, P = .0002), lubrication (4.90 vs 5.22, P = .004), and satisfaction (4.40 vs 4.70, P = .04). There was no change in sexual frequency. Contingency table analysis of RFSD prior to and during the pandemic revealed significantly increased RFSD during the pandemic (P = .002). Women who developed RFSD during the pandemic had higher PHQ-4 anxiety subscale scores (3.74 vs 2.53, P = .01) and depression subscale scores (2.74 vs 1.43, P = .001) than those who did not. Development of FSD was not associated with age, home region, relationship status, mask wearing habits, knowing someone who tested positive for COVID-19, relationship change, or job loss and/or reduction during the pandemic.ConclusionIn this population of female cannabis users, risk for sexual dysfunction increased amidst the COVID-19 pandemic and is associated with depression and anxiety symptoms. Bhambhvani HP, Chen T, Wilson-King AM, et al. Female Sexual Function During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States. Sex Med 2021;9:100355.

Dataset Information

Understanding transmission and intervention for the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.

Publications

Understanding transmission and intervention for the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.

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