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An age and space structured SIR model describing the Covid-19 pandemic.

ABSTRACT: We present an epidemic model capable of describing key features of the Covid-19 pandemic. While capturing several qualitative properties of the virus spreading, it allows to compute the basic reproduction number, the number of deaths due to the virus and various other statistics. Numerical integrations are used to illustrate the adherence of the evolutions described by the model to specific well known real features of the present pandemic. In particular, this model is consistent with the well known relevance of quarantine, shows the dramatic role of care houses and accounts for the increase in the death toll when spatial movements are not constrained.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13362-020-00090-4) contains supplementary material.

SUBMITTER: Colombo RM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7414273 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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An age and space structured SIR model describing the Covid-19 pandemic.

Colombo Rinaldo M RM Garavello Mauro M Marcellini Francesca F Rossi Elena E

Journal of mathematics in industry 20200808 1

We present an epidemic model capable of describing key features of the Covid-19 pandemic. While capturing several qualitative properties of the virus spreading, it allows to compute the basic reproduction number, the number of deaths due to the virus and various other statistics. Numerical integrations are used to illustrate the adherence of the evolutions described by the model to specific well known real features of the present pandemic. In particular, this model is consistent with the well kn ...[more]

PMID: 32834920

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