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Current perspective of COVID-19 spread across South Korea: exploratory data analysis and containment of the pandemic.

ABSTRACT: The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is regarded as a highly contagious disease that has challenged the healthcare systems worldwide with confirmed cases approaching 12 million and more than 50,000 deaths. Considering the worldwide cases of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), it remains a pandemic and the vaccines and therapeutic agents have yet to be developed to stop the spread of this outbreak. Due to the unavailability of specific treatment for the COVID-19, it can be viewed that the risk of cluster infection will continue to be present within the intermittent and small-scale outbreaks. Though the COVID-19 has been identified as a communicable disease, the preventive measures and response policies in South Korea are effectively serving the purpose and gained the confidence to overcome the COVID-19 crisis. This paper includes the exploratory data analysis of COVID-19 cases in South Korea till July 8, 2020. South Korea has reported the lowest death rate with the majority of the deaths, associated with persons with underlying health conditions or elderly infected individuals. Currently the infected patients (total 989) remaining in South Korea are mild cases owing to its robust health care system and quarantine inspection procedures followed by the Ministry of Health and Welfare of South Korea to flatten the COVID-19 curve. Although the COVID-19 countermeasures taken by the South Korean government may not be conclusive or universal for all, but its exemplary approach to tackle COVID-19 can aid countries across the globe to strengthen their response system for the future outbreak of such an infectious disease.

SUBMITTER: Arora AS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7414901 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Current perspective of COVID-19 spread across South Korea: exploratory data analysis and containment of the pandemic.

Arora Amarpreet Singh AS Rajput Himadri H Changotra Rahil R

Environment, development and sustainability 20200808 5

The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is regarded as a highly contagious disease that has challenged the healthcare systems worldwide with confirmed cases approaching 12 million and more than 50,000 deaths. Considering the worldwide cases of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), it remains a pandemic and the vaccines and therapeutic agents have yet to be developed to stop the spread of this outbreak. Due to the unavailability of specific treatment for the COVID-19, it c ...[more]

PMID: 32837283

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Project description:BackgroundThe highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus, which is now widespread in Southeast Asia and which diffused recently in some areas of the Balkans region and Western Europe, has raised a public alert toward the potential occurrence of a new severe influenza pandemic. Here we study the worldwide spread of a pandemic and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel.Methods and findingsWe studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic model on a global scale that considers airline travel flow data among urban areas. We provided a temporal and spatial evolution of the pandemic with a sensitivity analysis of different levels of infectiousness of the virus and initial outbreak conditions (both geographical and seasonal). For each spreading scenario we provided the timeline and the geographical impact of the pandemic in 3,100 urban areas, located in 220 different countries. We compared the baseline cases with different containment strategies, including travel restrictions and the therapeutic use of antiviral (AV) drugs. We investigated the effect of the use of AV drugs in the event that therapeutic protocols can be carried out with maximal coverage for the populations in all countries. In view of the wide diversity of AV stockpiles in different regions of the world, we also studied scenarios in which only a limited number of countries are prepared (i.e., have considerable AV supplies). In particular, we compared different plans in which, on the one hand, only prepared and wealthy countries benefit from large AV resources, with, on the other hand, cooperative containment scenarios in which countries with large AV stockpiles make a small portion of their supplies available worldwide.ConclusionsWe show that the inclusion of air transportation is crucial in the assessment of the occurrence probability of global outbreaks. The large-scale therapeutic usage of AV drugs in all hit countries would be able to mitigate a pandemic effect with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9 during the first year; with AV supply use sufficient to treat approximately 2% to 6% of the population, in conjunction with efficient case detection and timely drug distribution. For highly contagious viruses (i.e., a reproductive rate as high as 2.3), even the unrealistic use of supplies corresponding to the treatment of approximately 20% of the population leaves 30%-50% of the population infected. In the case of limited AV supplies and pandemics with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9, we demonstrate that the more cooperative the strategy, the more effective are the containment results in all regions of the world, including those countries that made part of their resources available for global use.

Project description:Since the appearance of the first case of COVID-19 in Morocco on March, 02, 2020, the cumulative number of reported infectious cases continues to increase and, up to date, the peak-time of infection is not reached yet. In this study, we propose a Susceptible-Asymptomatic-Infectious deterministic model to evaluate the impact of compulsory containment imposed in Morocco on March, 21 on the spread of COVID-19 epidemic across the country. The model takes account of the unconfined individuals that continue to work or to leave their home for urgent needs and the existence of infectious asymptomatic and unreported individuals within susceptible population. Furthermore, the model is able to predict the peak-size, peak-time, final size and epidemic duration according to different rates of containment. Advanced knowledge of these details will be of great interest to establish an optimal plan-of-action to control or eradicate the epidemic. Indeed, mitigating and delaying the epidemic peak allow the official health authorities to anticipate and control the spread of COVID-19. Moreover, prediction of the epidemic duration can help the government to predict the end time of containment to avoid consequent social-economic damages as well. Using our model, the basic reproduction number R 0 is estimated to be 2.9949, with CI(2.6729-3.1485), reflecting a high speed of spread of the epidemic. The model shows that the compulsory containment can be efficient if more than 73% of population are confined. In the absence of other efficient measure of control, even with 90% of containment, the end-time is estimated to happen on July, 4, 2020 with 7558 final cumulative cases. Furthermore, a threshold value of containment rate, below which the epidemic duration is postponed, has been determined. Finally, the sensitivity analysis is performed and showed that the COVID-19 dynamics strongly depends on the asymptomatic duration as well as the contact and containment rates. Our previsions can help the government to adjust its plan-of-action to fight the disease and to face the social-economic shock induced by the containment.

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Current perspective of COVID-19 spread across South Korea: exploratory data analysis and containment of the pandemic.

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Current perspective of COVID-19 spread across South Korea: exploratory data analysis and containment of the pandemic.

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