Mathematical Model for Optimal Control of Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infection.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Lambura AG
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7416292 | biostudies-literature | 2020
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Mathematical Model for Optimal Control of Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infection.
Lambura Aristide G AG Mwanga Gasper G GG Luboobi Livingstone L Kuznetsov Dmitry D
Computational and mathematical methods in medicine 20200801
In this paper, we study the dynamics of soil-transmitted helminth infection. We formulate and analyse a deterministic compartmental model using nonlinear differential equations. The basic reproduction number is obtained and both disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are shown to be asymptotically stable under given threshold conditions. The model may exhibit backward bifurcation for some parameter values, and the sensitivity indices of the basic reproduction number with respect to the para ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:BackgroundThe acceleration of the control of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections in Nigeria, emphasizing preventive chemotherapy, has become imperative in light of the global fight against neglected tropical diseases. Predictive risk maps are an important tool to guide and support control activities.MethodologySTH infection prevalence data were obtained from surveys carried out in 2011 using standard protocols. Data were geo-referenced and collated in a nationwide, geographic information system database. Bayesian geostatistical models with remotely sensed environmental covariates and variable selection procedures were utilized to predict the spatial distribution of STH infections in Nigeria.Principal findingsWe found that hookworm, Ascaris lumbricoides, and Trichuris trichiura infections are endemic in 482 (86.8%), 305 (55.0%), and 55 (9.9%) locations, respectively. Hookworm and A. lumbricoides infection co-exist in 16 states, while the three species are co-endemic in 12 states. Overall, STHs are endemic in 20 of the 36 states of Nigeria, including the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja. The observed prevalence at endemic locations ranged from 1.7% to 51.7% for hookworm, from 1.6% to 77.8% for A. lumbricoides, and from 1.0% to 25.5% for T. trichiura. Model-based predictions ranged from 0.7% to 51.0% for hookworm, from 0.1% to 82.6% for A. lumbricoides, and from 0.0% to 18.5% for T. trichiura. Our models suggest that day land surface temperature and dense vegetation are important predictors of the spatial distribution of STH infection in Nigeria. In 2011, a total of 5.7 million (13.8%) school-aged children were predicted to be infected with STHs in Nigeria. Mass treatment at the local government area level for annual or bi-annual treatment of the school-aged population in Nigeria in 2011, based on World Health Organization prevalence thresholds, were estimated at 10.2 million tablets.Conclusions/significanceThe predictive risk maps and estimated deworming needs presented here will be helpful for escalating the control and spatial targeting of interventions against STH infections in Nigeria.
| S-EPMC4409219 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn countries of high endemicity of the soil-transmitted helminth parasites Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, and hookworm, preventive chemotherapy (i.e., repeated administration of anthelmintic drugs to at-risk populations) is the main strategy to control morbidity. However, rapid reinfection of humans occurs after successful deworming, and therefore effective preventive measures are required to achieve public health goals with optimal efficiency and sustainability.Methods and findingsWe conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the effect of sanitation (i.e., access and use of facilities for the safe disposal of human urine and feces) on infection with soil-transmitted helminths. PubMed, Embase, ISI Web of Science, and the World Health Organization Library Database were searched without language restrictions and year of publication (search performed until December 31, 2010). Bibliographies of identified articles were hand-searched. All types of studies reporting data on sanitation availability (i.e., having access at own household or living in close proximity to sanitation facility), or usage, and soil-transmitted helminth infections at the individual level were considered. Reported odds ratios (ORs) of the protective effect of sanitation on soil-transmitted helminth infections were extracted from the papers or calculated from reported numbers. The quality of published studies was assessed with a panel of criteria developed by the authors. Random effects meta-analyses were used to account for observed heterogeneity. Thirty-six publications, consisting of 39 datasets, met our inclusion criteria. Availability of sanitation facilities was associated with significant protection against infection with soil-transmitted helminths (OR ?=? 0.46 to 0.58). Regarding the use of sanitation, ORs of 0.54 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.28-1.02), 0.63 (95% CI 0.37-1.05), and 0.78 (95% CI 0.60-1.00) were determined for T. trichiura, hookworm, and A. lumbricoides, respectively. The overall ORs, combining sanitation availability and use, were 0.51 (95% CI 0.44-0.61) for the three soil-transmitted helminths combined, 0.54 (95% CI 0.43-0.69) for A. lumbricoides, 0.58 (95% CI 0.45-0.75) for T. trichiura, and 0.60 (95% CI 0.48-0.75) for hookworm.ConclusionsDespite a number of limitations (e.g., most studies used a cross-sectional design and were of low quality, with potential biases and considerable heterogeneity), our results reveal that sanitation is associated with a reduced risk of transmission of helminthiases to humans. Access to improved sanitation should be prioritized alongside preventive chemotherapy and health education to achieve a durable reduction of the burden of helminthiases.
| S-EPMC3265535 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC9208960 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundImplementation of control of parasitic diseases requires accurate, contemporary maps that provide intervention recommendations at policy-relevant spatial scales. To guide control of soil transmitted helminths (STHs), maps are required of the combined prevalence of infection, indicating where this prevalence exceeds an intervention threshold of 20%. Here we present a new approach for mapping the observed prevalence of STHs, using the example of Kenya in 2009.Methods and findingsObserved prevalence data for hookworm, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura were assembled for 106,370 individuals from 945 cross-sectional surveys undertaken between 1974 and 2009. Ecological and climatic covariates were extracted from high-resolution satellite data and matched to survey locations. Bayesian space-time geostatistical models were developed for each species, and were used to interpolate the probability that infection prevalence exceeded the 20% threshold across the country for both 1989 and 2009. Maps for each species were integrated to estimate combined STH prevalence using the law of total probability and incorporating a correction factor to adjust for associations between species. Population census data were combined with risk models and projected to estimate the population at risk and requiring treatment in 2009. In most areas for 2009, there was high certainty that endemicity was below the 20% threshold, with areas of endemicity ≥ 20% located around the shores of Lake Victoria and on the coast. Comparison of the predicted distributions for 1989 and 2009 show how observed STH prevalence has gradually decreased over time. The model estimated that a total of 2.8 million school-age children live in districts which warrant mass treatment.ConclusionsBayesian space-time geostatistical models can be used to reliably estimate the combined observed prevalence of STH and suggest that a quarter of Kenya's school-aged children live in areas of high prevalence and warrant mass treatment. As control is successful in reducing infection levels, updated models can be used to refine decision making in helminth control.
| S-EPMC3035671 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPreventive chemotherapy represents a powerful but short-term control strategy for soil-transmitted helminthiasis. Since humans are often re-infected rapidly, long-term solutions require improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH). The purpose of this study was to quantitatively summarize the relationship between WASH access or practices and soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infection.Methods and findingsWe conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine the associations of improved WASH on infection with STH (Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, hookworm [Ancylostoma duodenale and Necator americanus], and Strongyloides stercoralis). PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and LILACS were searched from inception to October 28, 2013 with no language restrictions. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they provided an estimate for the effect of WASH access or practices on STH infection. We assessed the quality of published studies with the Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. A total of 94 studies met our eligibility criteria; five were randomized controlled trials, whilst most others were cross-sectional studies. We used random-effects meta-analyses and analyzed only adjusted estimates to help account for heterogeneity and potential confounding respectively. Use of treated water was associated with lower odds of STH infection (odds ratio [OR] 0.46, 95% CI 0.36-0.60). Piped water access was associated with lower odds of A. lumbricoides (OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.39-0.41) and T. trichiura infection (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.45-0.72), but not any STH infection (OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.28-3.11). Access to sanitation was associated with decreased likelihood of infection with any STH (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.57-0.76), T. trichiura (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.50-0.74), and A. lumbricoides (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.44-0.88), but not with hookworm infection (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.61-1.06). Wearing shoes was associated with reduced odds of hookworm infection (OR 0.29, 95% CI 0.18-0.47) and infection with any STH (OR 0.30, 95% CI 0.11-0.83). Handwashing, both before eating (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.26-0.55) and after defecating (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.35-0.58), was associated with lower odds of A. lumbricoides infection. Soap use or availability was significantly associated with lower infection with any STH (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.29-0.98), as was handwashing after defecation (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.24-0.90). Observational evidence constituted the majority of included literature, which limits any attempt to make causal inferences. Due to underlying heterogeneity across observational studies, the meta-analysis results reflect an average of many potentially distinct effects, not an average of one specific exposure-outcome relationship.ConclusionsWASH access and practices are generally associated with reduced odds of STH infection. Pooled estimates from all meta-analyses, except for two, indicated at least a 33% reduction in odds of infection associated with individual WASH practices or access. Although most WASH interventions for STH have focused on sanitation, access to water and hygiene also appear to significantly reduce odds of infection. Overall quality of evidence was low due to the preponderance of observational studies, though recent randomized controlled trials have further underscored the benefit of handwashing interventions. Limited use of the Joint Monitoring Program's standardized water and sanitation definitions in the literature restricted efforts to generalize across studies. While further research is warranted to determine the magnitude of benefit from WASH interventions for STH control, these results call for multi-sectoral, integrated intervention packages that are tailored to social-ecological contexts.
| S-EPMC3965411 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundQuantifying the burden of parasitic diseases in relation to other diseases and injuries requires reliable estimates of prevalence for each disease and an analytic framework within which to estimate attributable morbidity and mortality. Here we use data included in the Global Atlas of Helminth Infection to derive new global estimates of numbers infected with intestinal nematodes (soil-transmitted helminths, STH: Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and the hookworms) and use disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to estimate disease burden.MethodsPrevalence data for 6,091 locations in 118 countries were sourced and used to estimate age-stratified mean prevalence for sub-national administrative units via a combination of model-based geostatistics (for sub-Saharan Africa) and empirical approaches (for all other regions). Geographical variation in infection prevalence within these units was approximated using modelled logit-normal distributions, and numbers of individuals with infection intensities above given thresholds estimated for each species using negative binomial distributions and age-specific worm/egg burden thresholds. Finally, age-stratified prevalence estimates for each level of infection intensity were incorporated into the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 analytic framework to estimate the global burden of morbidity and mortality associated with each STH infection.ResultsGlobally, an estimated 438.9 million people (95% Credible Interval (CI), 406.3 - 480.2 million) were infected with hookworm in 2010, 819.0 million (95% CI, 771.7 - 891.6 million) with A. lumbricoides and 464.6 million (95% CI, 429.6 - 508.0 million) with T. trichiura. Of the 4.98 million years lived with disability (YLDs) attributable to STH, 65% were attributable to hookworm, 22% to A. lumbricoides and the remaining 13% to T. trichiura. The vast majority of STH infections (67%) and YLDs (68%) occurred in Asia. When considering YLDs relative to total populations at risk however, the burden distribution varied more considerably within major global regions than between them.ConclusionImprovements in the cartography of helminth infection, combined with mathematical modelling approaches, have resulted in the most comprehensive contemporary estimates for the public health burden of STH. These numbers form an important benchmark upon which to evaluate future scale-up of major control efforts.
| S-EPMC3905661 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections are globally distributed intestinal parasite infections caused by Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, and hookworms (Ancylostoma duodenale and Necator americanus). STH infection constitutes a major public health threat, with heavy burdens observed in many of the world's tropical and subtropical regions. Mass drug administration and sanitation improvements can drastically reduce STH prevalence and associated morbidity. However, identifying targeted areas in need of treatment is hampered by a lack of knowledge on geographical and population-level risk factors. In this study, we applied Bayesian geostatistical modelling to data from a national school-based STH infection survey in Rwanda to (1) identify ecological and population-level risk factors and (2) provide comprehensive precision maps of infection burdens. Our results indicated that STH infections were heterogeneously distributed across the country and showed signatures of spatial clustering, though the magnitude of clustering varied among parasites. The highest rates of endemic clustering were attributed to A. lumbricoides infection. Concordant infection patterns among the three parasite groups highlighted populations currently most at-risk of morbidity. Population-dense areas in the Western and North-Western regions of Rwanda represent areas that have continued to exhibit high STH burden across two surveys and are likely in need of targeted interventions. Our maps support the need for an updated evaluation of STH endemicity in western Rwanda to evaluate progress in MDA efforts and identify communities that need further local interventions to further reduce morbidity caused by STH infections.
| S-EPMC6630518 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) are parasitic intestinal worms that infect almost a fifth of the global population. Sustainable control of STHs requires understanding the complex interaction of factors contributing to transmission. Identifying risk factors has mainly relied on logistic regression models where the underlying assumption of independence between variables is not always satisfied. Previously demonstrated risk factors including water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) access and behaviours, and socioeconomic status are intrinsically linked. Similarly, environmental factors including climate, soil and land attributes are often strongly correlated. Alternative methods such as recursive partitioning and Bayesian networks can handle correlated variables, but there are no published studies comparing these methods with logistic regression in the context of STH risk factor analysis. Baseline cross-sectional data from school-aged children in the (S)WASH-D for Worms study were used to compare risk factors identified from modelling the same data using three different statistical techniques. Outcomes of interest were infection with Ascaris spp. and any hookworm species (Necator americanus, Ancylostoma duodenale, and Ancylostoma ceylanicum). Mixed-effects logistic regression identified the fewest risk factors. Recursive partitioning identified the most WASH and demographic risk factors, while Bayesian networks identified the most environmental risk factors. Recursive partitioning produced classification trees that visualised potentially at-risk population sub-groups. Bayesian networks helped visualise relationships between variables and enabled interactive modelling of outcomes based on different scenarios for the predictor variables of interest. Model performance was similar across all techniques. Risk factors identified across all techniques were vegetation for Ascaris spp., and cleaning oneself with water after defecating for hookworm. This study adds to the limited body of evidence exploring alternative data modelling approaches in identifying risk factors for STH infections. Our findings suggest these approaches can provide novel insights for more robust interpretation.
| S-EPMC8378505 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSoil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections are still prevalent in Indonesia, with roughly one-third of infected population being preschool-age children (PSC), which are generally at higher risk of morbidity such as malnutrition and anemia. This study aimed to investigate the association of STH infections with nutritional status and anemia among PSC in Nangapanda subdistrict, Ende, East Nusa Tenggara.MethodsA cross-sectional survey involving PSC ranging from 12 to 59 months old from Nangapanda subdistrict, Ende district, East Nusa Tenggara was performed. Socio-demographic, breastfeeding, and complementary feeding information was obtained from structured questionnaires, while nutritional and anemia status was determined from anthropometry and hemoglobin measurements, respectively. Anthropometric z-scores were calculated based on the World Health Organization 2006 standards and stool samples were examined using Kato-Katz method.ResultsA total of 393 PSC randomly selected from 22 villages were examined. The prevalence of underweight, stunting, wasting, and anemia were 33.1%, 40.2%, 17.1%, and 60.3%, respectively. STH infection, predominated by Ascaris lumbricoides, was found in 160 (58.8%) PSC. Single STH infection, but not multiple infection, was independently associated with a lower risk of anemia (odds ratio [OR] 0.320, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.126-0.809, p = 0.016). Similar association with anemia was also found on mild STH infection (OR 0.318 [95% CI: 0.114-0.887], p = 0.029). On the other hand, younger children were found to have a higher risk of anemia and stunting. None of the examined variables were independently associated with underweight and wasting.ConclusionSTH infection as well as anemia and malnutrition were prevalent in this region. However in this study, current STH infections seemed to have minimal negative impact on children's nutritional status.
| S-EPMC8253427 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn Brazil, preventive chemotherapy targeting soil-transmitted helminthiasis is being scaled-up. Hence, spatially explicit estimates of infection risks providing information about the current situation are needed to guide interventions. Available high-resolution national model-based estimates either rely on analyses of data restricted to a given period of time, or on historical data collected over a longer period. While efforts have been made to take into account the spatial structure of the data in the modelling approach, little emphasis has been placed on the temporal dimension.MethodsWe extracted georeferenced survey data on the prevalence of infection with soil-transmitted helminths (i.e. Ascaris lumbricoides, hookworm and Trichuris trichiura) in Brazil from the Global Neglected Tropical Diseases (GNTD) database. Selection of the most important predictors of infection risk was carried out using a Bayesian geostatistical approach and temporal models that address non-linearity and correlation of the explanatory variables. The spatial process was estimated through a predictive process approximation. Spatio-temporal models were built on the selected predictors with integrated nested Laplace approximation using stochastic partial differential equations.ResultsOur models revealed that, over the past 20 years, the risk of soil-transmitted helminth infection has decreased in Brazil, mainly because of the reduction of A. lumbricoides and hookworm infections. From 2010 onwards, we estimate that the infection prevalences with A. lumbricoides, hookworm and T. trichiura are 3.6%, 1.7% and 1.4%, respectively. We also provide a map highlighting municipalities in need of preventive chemotherapy, based on a predicted soil-transmitted helminth infection risk in excess of 20%. The need for treatments in the school-aged population at the municipality level was estimated at 1.8 million doses of anthelminthic tablets per year.ConclusionsThe analysis of the spatio-temporal aspect of the risk of infection with soil-transmitted helminths contributes to a better understanding of the evolution of risk over time. Risk estimates provide the soil-transmitted helminthiasis control programme in Brazil with useful benchmark information for prioritising and improving spatial and temporal targeting of interventions.
| S-EPMC4262198 | biostudies-literature