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Modelling hepatitis B virus infection and impact of timely birth dose vaccine: A comparison of two simulation models.

ABSTRACT: Hepatitis B is a global epidemic that requires carefully orchestrated vaccination initiatives in geographical regions of medium to high endemicity to reach the World Health Organization's elimination targets by 2030. This study compares two widely-used deterministic hepatitis B models-the Imperial HBV model and the CDA Foundation's PRoGReSs-based on their predicted outcomes in four countries. The impact of scaling up of the timely birth dose of the hepatitis B vaccine is also investigated. The two models predicted largely similar outcomes for the impact of vaccination programmes on the projected numbers of new cases and deaths under high levels of the infant hepatitis B vaccine series. However, scenarios for the scaling up of the infant hepatitis B vaccine series had a larger impact in the PRoGReSs model than in the Imperial model due to the infant vaccine series directly leading to the reduction of perinatal transmission in the PRoGReSs model, but not in the Imperial model. Meanwhile, scaling up of the timely birth dose vaccine had a greater impact on the outcomes of the Imperial hepatitis B model than in the PRoGReSs model due to the greater protection that the birth dose vaccine confers to infants in the Imperial model compared to the PRoGReSs model. These differences underlie the differences in projections made by the models under some circumstances. Both sets of assumptions are consistent with available data and reveal a structural uncertainty that was not apparent in either model in isolation. Those relying on projections from models should consider outputs from both models and this analysis provides further evidence of the benefits of systematic model comparison for enhancing modelling analyses.

SUBMITTER: de Villiers MJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7416941 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modelling hepatitis B virus infection and impact of timely birth dose vaccine: A comparison of two simulation models.

de Villiers Margaret J MJ Gamkrelidze Ivane I Hallett Timothy B TB Nayagam Shevanthi S Razavi Homie H Razavi-Shearer Devin D

PloS one 20200810 8

Hepatitis B is a global epidemic that requires carefully orchestrated vaccination initiatives in geographical regions of medium to high endemicity to reach the World Health Organization's elimination targets by 2030. This study compares two widely-used deterministic hepatitis B models-the Imperial HBV model and the CDA Foundation's PRoGReSs-based on their predicted outcomes in four countries. The impact of scaling up of the timely birth dose of the hepatitis B vaccine is also investigated. The t ...[more]

PMID: 32776972

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Project description:ObjectiveTo investigate the incremental cost effectiveness of two dose human papillomavirus vaccination and of additionally giving a third dose.DesignCost effectiveness study based on a transmission dynamic model of human papillomavirus vaccination. Two dose schedules for bivalent or quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccines were assumed to provide 10, 20, or 30 years' vaccine type protection and cross protection or lifelong vaccine type protection without cross protection. Three dose schedules were assumed to give lifelong vaccine type and cross protection.SettingUnited Kingdom.PopulationMales and females aged 12-74 years.InterventionsNo, two, or three doses of human papillomavirus vaccine given routinely to 12 year old girls, with an initial catch-up campaign to 18 years.Main outcome measureCosts (from the healthcare provider's perspective), health related utilities, and incremental cost effectiveness ratios.ResultsGiving at least two doses of vaccine seems to be highly cost effective across the entire range of scenarios considered at the quadrivalent vaccine list price of £86.50 (€109.23; $136.00) per dose. If two doses give only 10 years' protection but adding a third dose extends this to lifetime protection, then the third dose also seems to be cost effective at £86.50 per dose (median incremental cost effectiveness ratio £17,000, interquartile range £11,700-£25,800). If two doses protect for more than 20 years, then the third dose will have to be priced substantially lower (median threshold price £31, interquartile range £28-£35) to be cost effective. Results are similar for a bivalent vaccine priced at £80.50 per dose and when the same scenarios are explored by parameterising a Canadian model (HPV-ADVISE) with economic data from the United Kingdom.ConclusionsTwo dose human papillomavirus vaccine schedules are likely to be the most cost effective option provided protection lasts for at least 20 years. As the precise duration of two dose schedules may not be known for decades, cohorts given two doses should be closely monitored.

Dataset Information

Modelling hepatitis B virus infection and impact of timely birth dose vaccine: A comparison of two simulation models.

Publications

Modelling hepatitis B virus infection and impact of timely birth dose vaccine: A comparison of two simulation models.

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