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Premature mortality of gastrointestinal cancer in Iran: trends and projections 2001-2030.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:The present study was conducted to determine the trend and projection of premature mortality from gastrointestinal cancers (GI cancers) at national and subnational levels in Iran. METHODS:Employing the data obtained from Iranian Death Registry System (DRS) and population data from census, the mortality rates of GI cancers was calculated among 30-70 age groups. The trends of esophageal, colon and rectum, gallbladder, pancreases, stomach, and liver cancer premature mortalities were estimated and projected at the national and subnational levels from 2001 to 2030. Then, Spatio-temporal model was used to project spatial and temporal correlations. RESULTS:The overall mortality rate of GI cancers was higher in males than in females, indicating 6.1, 3.9 and 3.9% per 100,000 individuals among males in 2001, 2015 and 2030 respectively and 3.8, 3.1 and 3.7 per 100,000 individuals among females in the same time-frame. The overall mortality rate of GI cancers in males was decreasing until 2015 and will remain stationary into 2030; however, the rate will be increasing among females in both time-frames. Also, there was a considerable variation in the mortality trends of different cancers. Pancreatic, gallbladder, and liver cancers were shown to have an increasing trend while a drop was observed in the mortality rates of stomach, colon and rectum, and esophageal cancers. CONCLUSION:Variation of GI cancers patterns and trends around the country indicated that a more comprehensive control plan is needed to include the predicted variations.

SUBMITTER: Shadmani FK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7425152 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Premature mortality of gastrointestinal cancer in Iran: trends and projections 2001-2030.

Shadmani Fatemeh Khosravi FK Farzadfar Farshad F Yoosefi Moein M Mansori Kamyar K Shadman Reza Khosravi RK Haghdoost Aliakbar A

BMC cancer 20200812 1

<h4>Background</h4>The present study was conducted to determine the trend and projection of premature mortality from gastrointestinal cancers (GI cancers) at national and subnational levels in Iran.<h4>Methods</h4>Employing the data obtained from Iranian Death Registry System (DRS) and population data from census, the mortality rates of GI cancers was calculated among 30-70 age groups. The trends of esophageal, colon and rectum, gallbladder, pancreases, stomach, and liver cancer premature mortal ...[more]

PMID: 32787796

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Project description:BackgroundThe United Nations Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 include reducing premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases by one-third. Although previous modeling studies have predicted premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases, the predictions for cancer and its subcategories are less well understood in China.ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to project premature cancer mortality of 10 leading cancers in Hunan Province, China, based on various scenarios of risk factor control so as to establish the priority for future interventions.MethodsWe used data collected between 2009 and 2017 from the Hunan cancer registry annual report as empirical data for projections. The population-attributable fraction was used to disaggregate cancer deaths into parts attributable and unattributable to 10 risk factors: smoking, alcohol use, high BMI, diabetes, physical inactivity, low vegetable and fruit intake, high red meat intake, high salt intake, and high ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels. The unattributable deaths and the risk factors in the baseline scenario were projected using the proportional change model, assuming constant annual change rates through 2030. The comparative risk assessment theory was used in simulated scenarios to reflect how premature mortality would be affected if the targets for risk factor control were achieved by 2030.ResultsThe cancer burden in Hunan significantly increased during 2009-2017. If current trends for each risk factor continued to 2030, the total premature deaths from cancers in 2030 would increase to 97,787 in Hunan Province, and the premature mortality (9.74%) would be 44.47% higher than that in 2013 (6.74%). In the combined scenario where all risk factor control targets were achieved, 14.41% of premature cancer mortality among those aged 30-70 years would be avoided compared with the business-as-usual scenario in 2030. Reductions in the prevalence of diabetes, high BMI, ambient PM2.5 levels, and insufficient fruit intake played relatively important roles in decreasing cancer premature mortality. However, the one-third reduction goal would not be achieved for most cancers except gastric cancer.ConclusionsExisting targets on cancer-related risk factors may have important roles in cancer prevention and control. However, they are not sufficient to achieve the one-third reduction goal in premature cancer mortality in Hunan Province. More aggressive risk control targets should be adopted based on local conditions.

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Dataset Information

Premature mortality of gastrointestinal cancer in Iran: trends and projections 2001-2030.

Publications

Premature mortality of gastrointestinal cancer in Iran: trends and projections 2001-2030.

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