Dataset Information

A simulation modelling toolkit for organising outpatient dialysis services during the COVID-19 pandemic.

ABSTRACT: This study presents two simulation modelling tools to support the organisation of networks of dialysis services during the COVID-19 pandemic. These tools were developed to support renal services in the South of England (the Wessex region caring for 650 dialysis patients), but are applicable elsewhere. A discrete-event simulation was used to model a worst case spread of COVID-19, to stress-test plans for dialysis provision throughout the COVID-19 outbreak. We investigated the ability of the system to manage the mix of COVID-19 positive and negative patients, the likely effects on patients, outpatient workloads across all units, and inpatient workload at the centralised COVID-positive inpatient unit. A second Monte-Carlo vehicle routing model estimated the feasibility of patient transport plans. If current outpatient capacity is maintained there is sufficient capacity in the South of England to keep COVID-19 negative/recovered and positive patients in separate sessions, but rapid reallocation of patients may be needed. Outpatient COVID-19 cases will spillover to a secondary site while other sites will experience a reduction in workload. The primary site chosen to manage infected patients will experience a significant increase in outpatients and inpatients. At the peak of infection, it is predicted there will be up to 140 COVID-19 positive patients with 40 to 90 of these as inpatients, likely breaching current inpatient capacity. Patient transport services will also come under considerable pressure. If patient transport operates on a policy of one positive patient at a time, and two-way transport is needed, a likely scenario estimates 80 ambulance drive time hours per day (not including fixed drop-off and ambulance cleaning times). Relaxing policies on individual patient transport to 2-4 patients per trip can save 40-60% of drive time. In mixed urban/rural geographies steps may need to be taken to temporarily accommodate renal COVID-19 positive patients closer to treatment facilities.

SUBMITTER: Allen M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7425906 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A simulation modelling toolkit for organising outpatient dialysis services during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Allen Michael M Bhanji Amir A Willemsen Jonas J Dudfield Steven S Logan Stuart S Monks Thomas T

PloS one 20200813 8

This study presents two simulation modelling tools to support the organisation of networks of dialysis services during the COVID-19 pandemic. These tools were developed to support renal services in the South of England (the Wessex region caring for 650 dialysis patients), but are applicable elsewhere. A discrete-event simulation was used to model a worst case spread of COVID-19, to stress-test plans for dialysis provision throughout the COVID-19 outbreak. We investigated the ability of the syste ...[more]

PMID: 32790773

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Project description:BackgroundAdvanced physiotherapist-led services have been embedded in specialist orthopaedic and neurosurgical outpatient departments across Queensland, Australia, to ameliorate capacity constraints. Simulation modelling has been used to inform the optimal scale and professional mix of services required to match patient demand. The context and the value of simulation modelling in service planning remain unclear. We aimed to examine the adoption, context and costs of using simulation modelling recommendations to inform service planning.MethodsUsing an implementation science approach, we undertook a prospective, qualitative evaluation to assess the use of discrete event simulation modelling recommendations for service re-design and to explore stakeholder perspectives about the role of simulation modelling in service planning. Five orthopaedic and neurosurgical services in Queensland, Australia, were selected to maximise variation in implementation effectiveness. We used the consolidated framework for implementation research (CFIR) to guide the facilitation and analysis of the stakeholder focus group discussions. We conducted a prospective costing analysis in each service to estimate the costs associated with using simulation modelling to inform service planning.ResultsFour of the five services demonstrated adoption by inclusion of modelling recommendations into proposals for service re-design. Four CFIR constructs distinguished and two CFIR constructs did not distinguish between high versus mixed implementation effectiveness. We identified additional constructs that did not map onto CFIR. The mean cost of implementation was AU$34,553 per site (standard deviation = AU$737).ConclusionsTo our knowledge, this is the first time the context of implementing simulation modelling recommendations in a health care setting, using a validated framework, has been examined. Our findings may provide valuable insights to increase the uptake of healthcare modelling recommendations in service planning.

Project description:BackgroundThe Covid-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on the Otolaryngology outpatient clinical practice, which is at high risk of respiratory viral transmission due to the close contact between the examiner and the patient's airway secretions [1]. Moreover, most otolaryngological procedures, including oropharyngoscopy, generate droplets or aerosols from high viral shedding areas [1]. Thus, only non-deferrable consultations were performed in the outbreak's acute phase. Along with the re-opening of elective clinical services and the impending second wave of the outbreak, a reorganization is necessary to minimize the risk of nosocomial transmission [1].MethodsThis video (Video 1) shows how to safely conduct an outpatient Otorhinolaryngological consultation, focusing on complete ear, nose and throat examination, according to evidences from the published literature and Otolaryngological societies guidelines [2,3].ResultsAfter telephonic screening, patients reporting Covid-19 symptoms or closecontact with a Covid-19 case within the last 14 days are referred to telehealth services [1-3]. To avoid crowding, the patient is admitted alone, after body temperature control, except for underage or disabled people [1]. The waiting room assessment must guarantee a social distance of 6 ft [1-3]. The consultation room is reorganized into two separate areas (Fig. 1): 1) a clean desk area, where an assistant wearing a surgical mask and gloves, handles the patient's documentation and writes the medical report, keeping proper distance from the patient, and 2) a separate consultation area, where the examiner, equipped with proper personal protective equipment (Fig. 2) [3,4], carries out the medical interview and physical examination. Endoscopic-assisted ear, nose and throat inspection using a dedicated monitor allows the examiner to maintain an adequate distance from the patient throughout the procedure while providing an optimal view (Figs. 3-6) [3]. Recent evidence shows that nasal endoscopy does not increase droplet production compared to traditional otolaryngological examination [5]. When necessary, nasal topic decongestion and anesthesia must be performed using cottonoids rather than sprays [3]. The patient keeps the nose and mouth covered throughout the consultation, lowering the surgical mask on the mouth for nasal endoscopy and removing it only for oropharyngoscopy. After the consultation, the doffing procedure must be carried out carefully to avoid contamination [4]. All the equipment and surfaces must undergo high-level disinfection with 70% alcohol or 0.1% bleach solutions [3]. Proper room ventilation must precede the next consultation [3].ConclusionsThe hints provided in this video are useful to ensure both patient and examiner safety during Otolaryngological outpatient consultations and to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

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A simulation modelling toolkit for organising outpatient dialysis services during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Publications

A simulation modelling toolkit for organising outpatient dialysis services during the COVID-19 pandemic.

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