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Time, space and social interactions: exit mechanisms for the Covid-19 epidemics.

ABSTRACT: We develop a minimalist compartmental model to study the impact of mobility restrictions in Italy during the Covid-19 outbreak. We show that, while an early lockdown shifts the contagion in time, beyond a critical value of lockdown strength the epidemic tends to restart after lifting the restrictions. We characterize the relative importance of different lockdown lifting schemes by accounting for two fundamental sources of heterogeneity, i.e. geography and demography. First, we consider Italian Regions as separate administrative entities, in which social interactions between age classes occur. We show that, due to the sparsity of the inter-Regional mobility matrix, once started, the epidemic spreading tends to develop independently across areas, justifying the adoption of mobility restrictions targeted to individual Regions or clusters of Regions. Second, we show that social contacts between members of different age classes play a fundamental role and that interventions which target local behaviours and take into account the age structure of the population can provide a significant contribution to mitigate the epidemic spreading. Our model aims to provide a general framework, and it highlights the relevance of some key parameters on non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain the contagion.

SUBMITTER: Scala A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7426873 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Time, space and social interactions: exit mechanisms for the Covid-19 epidemics.

Scala Antonio A Flori Andrea A Spelta Alessandro A Brugnoli Emanuele E Cinelli Matteo M Quattrociocchi Walter W Pammolli Fabio F

Scientific reports 20200813 1

We develop a minimalist compartmental model to study the impact of mobility restrictions in Italy during the Covid-19 outbreak. We show that, while an early lockdown shifts the contagion in time, beyond a critical value of lockdown strength the epidemic tends to restart after lifting the restrictions. We characterize the relative importance of different lockdown lifting schemes by accounting for two fundamental sources of heterogeneity, i.e. geography and demography. First, we consider Italian R ...[more]

PMID: 32792591

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Project description:Cases of the 2019 novel coronavirus also known as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) continue to rise worldwide. To date, there is no effective treatment. Clinical management is largely symptomatic, with organ support in intensive care for critically ill patients. The first phase I trial to test the efficacy of a vaccine has recently begun, but in the meantime there is an urgent need to decrease the morbidity and mortality of severe cases. It is known that patients with cancer are more susceptible to infection than individuals without cancer because of their systemic immunosuppressive state caused by the malignancy and anticancer treatments. Therefore, these patients might be at increased risk of pulmonary complications from COVID-19. The SARS-CoV-2 could in some case induce excessive and aberrant non-effective host immune responses that are associated with potentially fatal severe lung injury and patients can develop acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Cytokine release syndrome and viral ARDS result from uncontrolled severe acute inflammation. Acute lung injury results from inflammatory monocyte and macrophage activation in the pulmonary luminal epithelium which lead to a release of proinflammatory cytokines including interleukin (IL)-6, IL-1 and tumor necrosis factor-α. These cytokines play a crucial role in immune-related pneumonitis, and could represent a promising target when the infiltration is T cell predominant or there are indirect signs of high IL-6-related inflammation, such as elevated C-reactive protein. A monoclonal anti-IL-6 receptor antibody, tocilizumab has been administered in a number of cases in China and Italy. Positive clinical and radiological outcomes have been reported. These early findings have led to an ongoing randomized controlled clinical trial in China and Italy. While data from those trials are eagerly awaited, patients' management will continue to rely for the vast majority on local guidelines. Among many other aspects, this crisis has proven that different specialists must join forces to deliver the best possible care to patients.

Project description:Four billion people worldwide have experienced coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) confinement. Such unprecedented extent of mobility restriction to curb the COVID-19 pandemic may have profound impacts on how individuals live, travel and retain well-being. This systematic review aims to identify (i) the social consequences of mass quarantine-community-wide movement restrictions-during previous and current infectious disease outbreaks and (ii) recommended strategies to mitigate the negative social implications of COVID-19 lockdowns. Considering social determinants of health, we conducted a systematic review by searching five databases (Ovid-MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, China National Knowledge Infrastructure and the World Health Organization COVID-19 database) for publications from inception to 9 April 2020. No limitation was set on language, location or study type. Studies that (i) contained peer-reviewed original empirical evidence and (ii) focussed on non-epidemiological implications of mass quarantine were included. We thematically synthesized and reported data due to heterogeneous disease and country context. Of 3067 publications found, 15 original peer-reviewed articles were selected for full-text extraction. Psychological distress, heightened communication inequalities, food insecurity, economic challenges, diminished access to health care, alternative delivery of education and gender-based violence were identified as negative social consequences of community-based quarantine in six infectious disease epidemics, including the current COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, altruistic attitudes were identified as a positive consequence during previous quarantines. Diverse psychological and social consequences of mass quarantine in previous and current epidemics were evident, but individual country policies had been highly varied in how well they addressed the needs of affected individuals, especially those who are socially marginalized. Policymakers should balance the pros and cons of movement restrictions, facilitate multisectoral action to tackle social inequalities, provide clear and coherent guidance to the public and undertake time-bound policy evaluations to mitigate the negative impact of COVID-19 lockdowns and to establish preparedness strategies for future epidemics.

Project description:Background: During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown, contact clustering in social bubbles may allow extending contacts beyond the household at minimal additional risk and hence has been considered as part of modified lockdown policy or a gradual lockdown exit strategy. We estimated the impact of such strategies on epidemic and mortality risk using the UK as a case study. Methods: We used an individual based model for a synthetic population similar to the UK, stratified into transmission risks from the community, within the household and from other households in the same social bubble. The base case considers a situation where non-essential shops and schools are closed, the secondary household attack rate is 20% and the initial reproduction number is 0.8. We simulate social bubble strategies (where two households form an exclusive pair) for households including children, for single occupancy households, and for all households. We test the sensitivity of results to a range of alternative model assumptions and parameters. Results: Clustering contacts outside the household into exclusive bubbles is an effective strategy of increasing contacts while limiting the associated increase in epidemic risk. In the base case, social bubbles reduced fatalities by 42% compared to an unclustered increase of contacts. We find that if all households were to form social bubbles the reproduction number would likely increase to above the epidemic threshold of R=1. Strategies allowing households with young children or single occupancy households to form social bubbles increased the reproduction number by less than 11%. The corresponding increase in mortality is proportional to the increase in the epidemic risk but is focussed in older adults irrespective of inclusion in social bubbles. Conclusions: If managed appropriately, social bubbles can be an effective way of extending contacts beyond the household while limiting the increase in epidemic risk.

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Time, space and social interactions: exit mechanisms for the Covid-19 epidemics.

Publications

Time, space and social interactions: exit mechanisms for the Covid-19 epidemics.

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