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Stochastic bacterial population dynamics restrict the establishment of antibiotic resistance from single cells.

ABSTRACT: A better understanding of how antibiotic exposure impacts the evolution of resistance in bacterial populations is crucial for designing more sustainable treatment strategies. The conventional approach to this question is to measure the range of concentrations over which resistant strain(s) are selectively favored over a sensitive strain. Here, we instead investigate how antibiotic concentration impacts the initial establishment of resistance from single cells, mimicking the clonal expansion of a resistant lineage following mutation or horizontal gene transfer. Using two Pseudomonas aeruginosa strains carrying resistance plasmids, we show that single resistant cells have <5% probability of detectable outgrowth at antibiotic concentrations as low as one-eighth of the resistant strain's minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC). This low probability of establishment is due to detrimental effects of antibiotics on resistant cells, coupled with the inherently stochastic nature of cell division and death on the single-cell level, which leads to loss of many nascent resistant lineages. Our findings suggest that moderate doses of antibiotics, well below the MIC of resistant strains, may effectively restrict de novo emergence of resistance even though they cannot clear already-large resistant populations.

SUBMITTER: Alexander HK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7431077 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Stochastic bacterial population dynamics restrict the establishment of antibiotic resistance from single cells.

Alexander Helen K HK MacLean R Craig RC

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20200723 32

A better understanding of how antibiotic exposure impacts the evolution of resistance in bacterial populations is crucial for designing more sustainable treatment strategies. The conventional approach to this question is to measure the range of concentrations over which resistant strain(s) are selectively favored over a sensitive strain. Here, we instead investigate how antibiotic concentration impacts the initial establishment of resistance from single cells, mimicking the clonal expansion of a ...[more]

PMID: 32703812

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Project description:A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to populations initiated by a larger number of individuals, where the random effects become negligible.

Dataset Information

Stochastic bacterial population dynamics restrict the establishment of antibiotic resistance from single cells.

Publications

Stochastic bacterial population dynamics restrict the establishment of antibiotic resistance from single cells.

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