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Development and Validation of a Radiomics Nomogram Model for Predicting Postoperative Recurrence in Patients With Esophageal Squamous Cell Cancer Who Achieved pCR After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy Followed by Surgery.

ABSTRACT: Background and purpose: Although patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) can achieve a pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) followed by surgery, one-third of these patients with a pCR may still experience recurrence. The aim of this study is to develop and validate a predictive model to estimate recurrence-free survival (RFS) in those patients who achieved pCR. Materials and methods: Two hundred six patients with ESCC were enrolled and divided into a training cohort (n = 146) and a validation cohort (n = 60). Radiomic features were extracted from contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) images of each patient. Feature reduction was then implemented in two steps, including a multiple segmentation test and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox proportional hazards regression method. A radiomics signature was subsequently constructed and evaluated. For better prediction performance, a clinical nomogram based on clinical risk factors and a nomogram incorporating the radiomics signature and clinical risk factors was built. Finally, the prediction models were further validated by calibration and the clinical usefulness was examined in the validation cohort to determine the optimal prediction model. Results: The radiomics signature was constructed using eight radiomic features and displayed a significant correlation with RFS. The nomogram incorporating the radiomics signature with clinical risk factors achieved optimal performance compared with the radiomics signature (P < 0.001) and clinical nomogram (P < 0.001) in both the training cohort [C-index (95% confidence interval [CI]), 0.746 (0.680-0.812) vs. 0.685 (0.620-0.750) vs. 0.614 (0.538-0.690), respectively] and validation cohort [C-index (95% CI), 0.724 (0.696-0.752) vs. 0.671 (0.624-0.718) vs. 0.629 (0.597-0.661), respectively]. The calibration curve and decision curve analysis revealed that the radiomics nomogram outperformed the other two models. Conclusions: A radiomics nomogram model incorporating radiomics features and clinical factors has been developed and has the improved ability to predict the postoperative recurrence risk in patients with ESCC who achieved pCR after nCRT followed by surgery.

SUBMITTER: Qiu Q

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7431604 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development and Validation of a Radiomics Nomogram Model for Predicting Postoperative Recurrence in Patients With Esophageal Squamous Cell Cancer Who Achieved pCR After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy Followed by Surgery.

Qiu Qingtao Q Duan Jinghao J Deng Hongbin H Han Zhujun Z Gu Jiabing J Yue Ning J NJ Yin Yong Y

Frontiers in oncology 20200811

<b>Background and purpose:</b> Although patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) can achieve a pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) followed by surgery, one-third of these patients with a pCR may still experience recurrence. The aim of this study is to develop and validate a predictive model to estimate recurrence-free survival (RFS) in those patients who achieved pCR. <b>Materials and methods:</b> Two hundred six patients with ESCC were ...[more]

PMID: 32850451

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Project description:BackgroundThe purpose of this study was to develop a large population-based nomogram incorporating the log odds of positive nodes (LODDS) for predicting the overall survival (OS) of stage II/III rectal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) followed by surgical resection.MethodsThe Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database was used to collect information on patients diagnosed with stage II/III rectal cancer between 2010 and 2015 and treated with NCRT followed by surgical resection. The Cox regression analyses were performed to determine the independent prognostic factors. In this study, LODDS was employed instead of American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 7th N stage to determine lymph node status. Then a nomogram integrating independent prognostic factors was developed to predict the 24-, 36-, and 60-month overall survival. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves were used to validate the nomogram. Furthermore, patients were stratified into three risk groups (high-, middle-, and low-risk) based on the total points obtained from the nomogram. And Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted to compare the OS of the three groups.ResultsA total of 3829 patients were included in the study. Race, sex, age, marital status, T stage, tumor grade, tumor size, LODDS, CEA level, and postoperative chemotherapy were identified as independent prognostic factors, based on which the prognostic nomogram was developed. The area under curve values of the nomogram for the 24-, 36-, and 60-month OS in the training cohort were 0.736, 0.720, and 0.688, respectively; and 0.691, 0.696, and 0.694 in the validation cohort, respectively. In both the validation and training cohorts, the calibration curves showed a high degree of consistency between actual and nomogram-predicted survival rates. The Kaplan-Meier curves showed that the three risk groups had significant differences in overall survival (P < 0.001).ConclusionA large population-based nomogram incorporating LODDS was developed to assist in evaluating the prognosis of stage II/III rectal cancer patients treated with NCRT followed by surgical resection. The nomogram showed a satisfactorily discriminative and stable ability to predict the OS for those patients.

Project description:BackgroundConcurrent chemoradiotherapy followed by adjuvant chemotherapy (CCRT-AC) is currently recommended as the standard treatment for locally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LA-NPC). Neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by concurrent chemoradiotherapy (NAC-CCRT) is an alternative strategy for decreasing tumor size and controlling micrometastases before main treatment. The aim of this study was to investigate and compare survival outcomes between LA-NPC patients treated with CCRT-AC and those treated with NAC-CCRT.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study included consecutive histologically confirmed LA-NPC patients that were treated with NAC-CCRT or CCRT-AC at Siriraj Hospital during the March 2010 to October 2014 study period. CCRT in both protocols consisted of 3-week cycles of cisplatin 100 mg/m2 with concurrent radiotherapy. Either NAC or AC consisted of 3-week cycles of cisplatin on day 1 and fluorouracil/leucovorin on days 1-4 for a maximum three cycles. The primary endpoint was 5-year overall survival (OS). Flexible parametric survival analysis was used, because the proportional hazards assumption of Cox regression was violated.ResultsOf the 266 LA-NPC patients that received treatment during the study period, 79 received NAC-CCRT and 187 received CCRT-AC. Median follow-up was 37 months. Significantly more patients with advanced clinical stage (stage IVA-IVB) received NAC-CCRT (86% in NAC-CCRT vs. 29% in CCRT-AC; p?<?0.001). Compared to CCRT-AC in crude analysis, 3-year and 5-year OS of NAC-CCRT were 72% vs. 86% and 62% vs. 75% respectively (p?=?0.059). Interestingly, the 3-year and 5-year post-estimation adjusted OS was 84% and 74% for NAC-CCRT and 81% and 70% for CCRT-AC, respectively (HR: 0.83, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.45-1.56; p?=?0.571). Also, adjusted analysis of distant-metastasis survival, NAC-CCRT showed HR was 0.79 (95% CI:0.37-1.72, p?=?0.557). Conversely, adjusted analysis of locoregional relapse (LLR)-free survival revealed NAC-CCRT to have a significantly higher risk of LRR (HR: 2.18, 95% CI: 0.98-4.87; p?=?0.057).ConclusionsThe results suggested that prognosis in the NAC-CCRT treated patients was not superior to that of the CCRT-AC treated individuals. In patients that receive neoadjuvant chemotherapy, locoregional relapse should be of concern. High-risk distant metastasis patients (N3 stage) that could achieve survival advantage from NAC-CCRT is an interesting and important topic for further study.

Project description:BackgroundTumor regression grade (TRG) after neoadjuvant therapy is reportedly predictive of prognosis in esophageal cancer patients, as lack of a response to neoadjuvant therapy is associated with a poor prognosis. However, there is little information available on the timing and pattern of recurrence after esophagectomy for thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (TESCC) that takes into consideration TRG after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NACRT). Here, in an effort to gain insight into a treatment strategy that improves the prognosis of NACRT non-responders, we evaluated the patterns and timing of recurrence in TESCC patients, taking into consideration TRG after NACRT.MethodsA total of 127 TESCC patients treated with NACRT and esophagectomy between 2009 and 2017 were enrolled in this observational cohort study. TRGs were assigned based on the proportion of residual tumor cells in the area (TRG1, ≥1/3 viable cancer cells; 2, < 1/3 viable cancer cells; 3, no viable cancer cells). We retrospectively investigated the timing and patterns of recurrence and the prognoses in TESCC patients, taking into consideration TRG after NACRT.ResultsThe 127 participating TESCC patients were categorized as TRG1 (42 patients, 33%), TRG2 (56 patients, 44%) or TRG3 (29 patients, 23%). The locoregional recurrence rate was higher in TRG1 (36.4%) patients than combined TRG2-3 (7.4%) patients. Patients with TRG3 had better prognoses, though a few TRG3 patients experienced distant recurrence. There were no significant differences in median time to first recurrence or OS among patients with locoregional or distant recurrence. There was a trend toward better OS in TRG2-3 patients with recurrence than TRG1 patients with recurrence, but the difference was not significant.ConclusionsNACRT non-responders (TRG1 patients) experienced higher locoregional recurrence rates and earlier recurrence with distant or locoregional metastasis. TRG appears to be useful for establishing a strategy for perioperative treatments to improve TESCC patient survival, especially among TRG1 patients. (303 words).

Dataset Information

Development and Validation of a Radiomics Nomogram Model for Predicting Postoperative Recurrence in Patients With Esophageal Squamous Cell Cancer Who Achieved pCR After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy Followed by Surgery.

Publications

Development and Validation of a Radiomics Nomogram Model for Predicting Postoperative Recurrence in Patients With Esophageal Squamous Cell Cancer Who Achieved pCR After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy Followed by Surgery.

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