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COVID-19 Global Risk: Expectation vs. Reality.

ABSTRACT: Background and Objective: COVID-19 has engulfed the entire world, with many countries struggling to contain the pandemic. In order to understand how each country is impacted by the virus compared with what would have been expected prior to the pandemic and the mortality risk on a global scale, a multi-factor weighted spatial analysis is presented. Method: A number of key developmental indicators across three main categories of demographics, economy, and health infrastructure were used, supplemented with a range of dynamic indicators associated with COVID-19 as independent variables. Using normalised COVID-19 mortality on 13 May 2020 as a dependent variable, a linear regression (N = 153 countries) was performed to assess the predictive power of the various indicators. Results: The results of the assessment show that when in combination, dynamic and static indicators have higher predictive power to explain risk variation in COVID-19 mortality compared with static indicators alone. Furthermore, as of 13 May 2020 most countries were at a similar or lower risk level than what would have been expected pre-COVID, with only 44/153 countries experiencing a more than 20% increase in mortality risk. The ratio of elderly emerges as a strong predictor but it would be worthwhile to consider it in light of the family makeup of individual countries. Conclusion: In conclusion, future avenues of data acquisition related to COVID-19 are suggested. The paper concludes by discussing the ability of various factors to explain COVID-19 mortality risk. The ratio of elderly in combination with the dynamic variables associated with COVID-19 emerge as more significant risk predictors in comparison to socio-economic and demographic indicators.

SUBMITTER: Arsalan M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7432363 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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COVID-19 Global Risk: Expectation vs. Reality.

Arsalan Mudassar M Mubin Omar O Alnajjar Fady F Alsinglawi Belal B

International journal of environmental research and public health 20200803 15

<i>Background and Objective</i>: COVID-19 has engulfed the entire world, with many countries struggling to contain the pandemic. In order to understand how each country is impacted by the virus compared with what would have been expected prior to the pandemic and the mortality risk on a global scale, a multi-factor weighted spatial analysis is presented. <i>Method</i>: A number of key developmental indicators across three main categories of demographics, economy, and health infrastructure were u ...[more]

PMID: 32756513

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Project description:COVID-19, a new human respiratory disease that has killed nearly 3 million people in a year since the start of the pandemic, is a global public health challenge. Its infectious agent, SARS-CoV-2, differs from other coronaviruses in a number of structural features that make this virus more pathogenic and transmissible. In this review, we discuss some important characteristics of the main SARS-CoV-2 surface antigen, the spike (S) protein, such as (i) ability of the receptor-binding domain (RBD) to switch between the "standing-up" position (open pre-fusion conformation) for receptor binding and the "lying-down" position (closed pre-fusion conformation) for immune system evasion; (ii) advantage of a high binding affinity of the RBD open conformation to the human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor for efficient cell entry; and (iii) S protein preliminary activation by the intracellular furin-like proteases for facilitation of the virus spreading across different cell types. We describe interactions between the S protein and cellular receptors, co-receptors, and antagonists, as well as a hypothetical mechanism of the homotrimeric spike structure destabilization that triggers the fusion of the viral envelope with the cell membrane at physiological pH and mediates the viral nucleocapsid entry into the cytoplasm. The transition of the S protein pre-fusion conformation to the post-fusion one on the surface of virions after their treatment with some reagents, such as β-propiolactone, is essential, especially in relation to the vaccine production. We also compare the COVID-19 pathogenesis with that of severe outbreaks of "avian" influenza caused by the A/H5 and A/H7 highly pathogenic viruses and discuss the structural similarities between the SARS-CoV-2 S protein and hemagglutinins of those highly pathogenic strains. Finally, we touch on the prospective and currently used COVID-19 antiviral and anti-pathogenetic therapeutics, as well as recently approved conventional and innovative COVID-19 vaccines and their molecular and immunological features.

Project description:BackgroundThe World Health Organization (WHO) announced the COVID-19 occurrence as a global pandemic in March 2020. The treatment of SARS-CoV-2 patients is based on the experience gained from SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV infection during 2003. There is no clinically accepted therapeutic drug(s) accessible yet for the treatment of COVID-19.Main bodyCorticosteroids, i.e., dexamethasone, methylprednisolone, hydrocortisone and prednisone are used alone or in combination for the treatment of moderate, severe and critically infected COVID-19 patients who are hospitalized and require supplemental oxygen as per current management strategies and guidelines for COVID-19 published by the National Institutes of Health. Corticosteroids are recorded in the WHO model list of essential medicines and are easily accessible worldwide at a cheaper cost in multiple formulations and various dosage forms. Corticosteroid can be used in all age group of patients, i.e., children, adult, elderly and during pregnancy or breastfeeding women. Corticosteroids have potent anti-inflammatory and immunosuppressive effects in both primary and secondary immune cells, thereby reducing the generation of proinflammatory cytokines and chemokines and lowering the activation of T cells, monocytes and macrophages. The corticosteroids should not be used in the treatment of non-severe COVID-19 patients because corticosteroids suppress the immune response and reduce the symptoms and associated side effects such as slow recovery, bacterial infections, hypokalemia, mucormycosis and finally increase the chances of death.ConclusionIntensive research on corticosteroid therapy in COVID-19 treatment is urgently needed to elucidate their mechanisms and importance in contributing toward successful prevention and treatment approaches. Hence, this review emphasizes on recent advancement on corticosteroid therapy for defining their importance in overcoming SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, their mechanism, efficacy and extent of corticosteroids in the treatment of COVID-19 patients.

Dataset Information

COVID-19 Global Risk: Expectation vs. Reality.

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COVID-19 Global Risk: Expectation vs. Reality.

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