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Statistical Implementations of Agent-Based Demographic Models.

ABSTRACT: A variety of demographic statistical models exist for studying population dynamics when individuals can be tracked over time. In cases where data are missing due to imperfect detection of individuals, the associated measurement error can be accommodated under certain study designs (e.g. those that involve multiple surveys or replication). However, the interaction of the measurement error and the underlying dynamic process can complicate the implementation of statistical agent-based models (ABMs) for population demography. In a Bayesian setting, traditional computational algorithms for fitting hierarchical demographic models can be prohibitively cumbersome to construct. Thus, we discuss a variety of approaches for fitting statistical ABMs to data and demonstrate how to use multi-stage recursive Bayesian computing and statistical emulators to fit models in such a way that alleviates the need to have analytical knowledge of the ABM likelihood. Using two examples, a demographic model for survival and a compartment model for COVID-19, we illustrate statistical procedures for implementing ABMs. The approaches we describe are intuitive and accessible for practitioners and can be parallelised easily for additional computational efficiency.

SUBMITTER: Hooten M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7436772 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Statistical Implementations of Agent-Based Demographic Models.

Hooten Mevin M Wikle Christopher C Schwob Michael M

International statistical review = Revue internationale de statistique 20200803 2

A variety of demographic statistical models exist for studying population dynamics when individuals can be tracked over time. In cases where data are missing due to imperfect detection of individuals, the associated measurement error can be accommodated under certain study designs (e.g. those that involve multiple surveys or replication). However, the interaction of the measurement error and the underlying dynamic process can complicate the implementation of statistical agent-based models (ABMs) ...[more]

PMID: 32834401

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Project description:BackgroundHealth facilities in developing countries are increasingly adopting Electronic Health Records systems (EHRs) to support healthcare processes. However, only limited studies are available that assess the actual use of the EHRs once adopted in these settings. We assessed the state of the 376 KenyaEMR system (national EHRs) implementations in healthcare facilities offering HIV services in Kenya.MethodsThe study focused on seven EHRs use indicators. Six of the seven indicators were programmed and packaged into a query script for execution within each KenyaEMR system (KeEMRs) implementation to collect monthly server-log data for each indicator for the period 2012-2019. The indicators included: Staff system use, observations (clinical data volume), data exchange, standardized terminologies, patient identification, and automatic reports. The seventh indicator (EHR variable Completeness) was derived from routine data quality report within the EHRs. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, and multiple linear regression analysis was used to examine how individual facility characteristics affected the use of the system.Results213 facilities spanning 19 counties participated in the study. The mean number of authorized users who actively used the KeEMRs was 18.1% (SD = 13.1%, p<0.001) across the facilities. On average, the volume of clinical data (observations) captured in the EHRs was 3363 (SD = 4259). Only a few facilities(14.1%) had health data exchange capability. 97.6% of EHRs concept dictionary terms mapped to standardized terminologies such as CIEL. Within the facility EHRs, only 50.5% (SD = 35.4%, p< 0.001) of patients had the nationally-endorsed patient identifier number recorded. Multiple regression analysis indicated the need for improvement on the mode of EHRs use of implementation.ConclusionThe standard EHRs use indicators can effectively measure EHRs use and consequently determine success of the EHRs implementations. The results suggest that most of the EHRs use areas assessed need improvement, especially in relation to active usage of the system and data exchange readiness.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Much of the extensive research regarding transmission of malaria is underpinned by mathematical modelling. Compartmental models, which focus on interactions and transitions between population strata, have been a mainstay of such modelling for more than a century. However, modellers are increasingly adopting agent-based approaches, which model hosts, vectors and/or their interactions on an individual level. One reason for the increasing popularity of such models is their potential to provide enhanced realism by allowing system-level behaviours to emerge as a consequence of accumulated individual-level interactions, as occurs in real populations. METHODS:A systematic review of 90 articles published between 1998 and May 2018 was performed, characterizing agent-based models (ABMs) relevant to malaria transmission. The review provides an overview of approaches used to date, determines the advantages of these approaches, and proposes ideas for progressing the field. RESULTS:The rationale for ABM use over other modelling approaches centres around three points: the need to accurately represent increased stochasticity in low-transmission settings; the benefits of high-resolution spatial simulations; and heterogeneities in drug and vaccine efficacies due to individual patient characteristics. The success of these approaches provides avenues for further exploration of agent-based techniques for modelling malaria transmission. Potential extensions include varying elimination strategies across spatial landscapes, extending the size of spatial models, incorporating human movement dynamics, and developing increasingly comprehensive parameter estimation and optimization techniques. CONCLUSION:Collectively, the literature covers an extensive array of topics, including the full spectrum of transmission and intervention regimes. Bringing these elements together under a common framework may enhance knowledge of, and guide policies towards, malaria elimination. However, because of the diversity of available models, endorsing a standardized approach to ABM implementation may not be possible. Instead it is recommended that model frameworks be contextually appropriate and sufficiently described. One key recommendation is to develop enhanced parameter estimation and optimization techniques. Extensions of current techniques will provide the robust results required to enhance current elimination efforts.

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Statistical Implementations of Agent-Based Demographic Models.

Publications

Statistical Implementations of Agent-Based Demographic Models.

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