Dataset Information

Aerosol-forced multidecadal variations across all ocean basins in models and observations since 1920.

ABSTRACT: Earth's climate fluctuates considerably on decadal-multidecadal time scales, often causing large damages to our society and environment. These fluctuations usually result from internal dynamics, and many studies have linked them to internal climate modes in the North Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Here, we show that variations in volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols have caused in-phase, multidecadal SST variations since 1920 across all ocean basins. These forced variations resemble the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in time. Unlike the North Atlantic, where indirect and direct aerosol effects on surface solar radiation drive the multidecadal SST variations, over the tropical central and western Pacific atmospheric circulation response to aerosol forcing plays an important role, whereas aerosol-induced radiation change is small. Our new finding implies that AMO-like climate variations in Eurasia, North America, and other regions may be partly caused by the aerosol forcing, rather than being originated from the North Atlantic SST variations as previously thought.

SUBMITTER: Qin M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7439312 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Aerosol-forced multidecadal variations across all ocean basins in models and observations since 1920.

Qin Minhua M Dai Aiguo A Hua Wenjian W

Science advances 20200717 29

Earth's climate fluctuates considerably on decadal-multidecadal time scales, often causing large damages to our society and environment. These fluctuations usually result from internal dynamics, and many studies have linked them to internal climate modes in the North Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Here, we show that variations in volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols have caused in-phase, multidecadal SST variations since 1920 across all ocean basins. These forced variations resemble the Atlantic Mu ...[more]

PMID: 32832635

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Project description:Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly applied in conservation management to predict suitable habitat for poorly known populations. High predictive performance of SDMs is evident in validations performed within the model calibration area (interpolation), but few studies have assessed SDM transferability to novel areas (extrapolation), particularly across large spatial scales or pelagic ecosystems. We performed rigorous SDM validation tests on distribution data from three populations of a long-ranging marine predator, the grey petrel Procellaria cinerea, to assess model transferability across the Southern Hemisphere (25-65°S). Oceanographic data were combined with tracks of grey petrels from two remote sub-Antarctic islands (Antipodes and Kerguelen) using boosted regression trees to generate three SDMs: one for each island population, and a combined model. The predictive performance of these models was assessed using withheld tracking data from within the model calibration areas (interpolation), and from a third population, Marion Island (extrapolation). Predictive performance was assessed using k-fold cross validation and point biserial correlation. The two population-specific SDMs included the same predictor variables and suggested birds responded to the same broad-scale oceanographic influences. However, all model validation tests, including of the combined model, determined strong interpolation but weak extrapolation capabilities. These results indicate that habitat use reflects both its availability and bird preferences, such that the realized distribution patterns differ for each population. The spatial predictions by the three SDMs were compared with tracking data and fishing effort to demonstrate the conservation pitfalls of extrapolating SDMs outside calibration regions. This exercise revealed that SDM predictions would have led to an underestimate of overlap with fishing effort and potentially misinformed bycatch mitigation efforts. Although SDMs can elucidate potential distribution patterns relative to large-scale climatic and oceanographic conditions, knowledge of local habitat availability and preferences is necessary to understand and successfully predict region-specific realized distribution patterns.

Dataset Information

Aerosol-forced multidecadal variations across all ocean basins in models and observations since 1920.

Publications

Aerosol-forced multidecadal variations across all ocean basins in models and observations since 1920.

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