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Wise or mad crowds? The cognitive mechanisms underlying information cascades.

ABSTRACT: Whether getting vaccinated, buying stocks, or crossing streets, people rarely make decisions alone. Rather, multiple people decide sequentially, setting the stage for information cascades whereby early-deciding individuals can influence others' choices. To understand how information cascades through social systems, it is essential to capture the dynamics of the decision-making process. We introduce the social drift-diffusion model to capture these dynamics. We tested our model using a sequential choice task. The model was able to recover the dynamics of the social decision-making process, accurately capturing how individuals integrate personal and social information dynamically over time and when their decisions were timed. Our results show the importance of the interrelationships between accuracy, confidence, and response time in shaping the quality of information cascades. The model reveals the importance of capturing the dynamics of decision processes to understand how information cascades in social systems, paving the way for applications in other social systems.

SUBMITTER: Tump AN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7439644 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Wise or mad crowds? The cognitive mechanisms underlying information cascades.

Tump Alan N AN Pleskac Timothy J TJ Kurvers Ralf H J M RHJM

Science advances 20200715 29

Whether getting vaccinated, buying stocks, or crossing streets, people rarely make decisions alone. Rather, multiple people decide sequentially, setting the stage for information cascades whereby early-deciding individuals can influence others' choices. To understand how information cascades through social systems, it is essential to capture the dynamics of the decision-making process. We introduce the social drift-diffusion model to capture these dynamics. We tested our model using a sequential ...[more]

PMID: 32832634

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Project description:Misinformation on social media poses a serious threat to democracy, sociopolitical stability, and mental health. Thus, it is crucial to investigate the nature of cognitive mechanisms and personality traits that contribute to the assessment of news items' veracity, failures in the discernment of their truthfulness, and behavioral engagement with the news, especially if one wants to devise any intervention to stop the spread of misinformation in social media. The current research aimed to develop and test a 4-fold taxonomy classifying people into four distinct phenotypes of susceptibility to (mis)information. In doing so, it aimed to establish differences in cognitive and psychological profiles between these phenotypes. The investigated cognitive processes included sensitivity to feedback, belief updating, and cognitive judgment bias. Psychological traits of interest included the Big Five model, grandiose narcissism, anxiety, and dispositional optimism. The participants completed online surveys that consisted of a new scale designed to classify people into one of four phenotypes of susceptibility to (mis)information, advanced cognitive tests, and reliable psychological instruments. The four identified phenotypes, Doubters, Knowers, Duffers, and Consumers, showed that believing in misinformation does not imply denying the truth. In contrast, the numerically largest phenotypes encompassed individuals who were either susceptible (Consumers) or resistant (Doubters), in terms of veracity judgment and behavioral engagement, to any news, regardless of its truthfulness. Significantly less frequent were the phenotypes characterized by excellent and poor discernment of the news' truthfulness (the Knowers and the Duffers, respectively). The phenotypes significantly differed in sensitivity to positive and negative feedback, cognitive judgment bias, extraversion, conscientiousness, agreeableness, emotional stability, grandiose narcissism, anxiety, and dispositional optimism. The obtained results constitute a basis for a new and holistic approach in understanding susceptibility to (mis)information as a psycho-cognitive phenotype.

Dataset Information

Wise or mad crowds? The cognitive mechanisms underlying information cascades.

Publications

Wise or mad crowds? The cognitive mechanisms underlying information cascades.

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