Dataset Information

The FUTUREPAIN study: Validating a questionnaire to predict the probability of having chronic pain 7-10 years into the future.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:The FUTUREPAIN study develops a short general-purpose questionnaire, based on the biopsychosocial model, to predict the probability of developing or maintaining moderate-to-severe chronic pain 7-10 years into the future. METHODS:This is a retrospective cohort study. Two-thirds of participants in the National Survey of Midlife Development in the United States were randomly assigned to a training cohort used to train a predictive machine learning model based on the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm, which produces a model with minimal covariates. Out-of-sample predictions from this model were then estimated using the remaining one-third testing cohort to determine the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). An optimal cut-point that maximized sensitivity and specificity was determined. RESULTS:The LASSO model using 82 variables in the training cohort, yielded an 18-variable model with an out-of-sample AUROC of 0.85 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.80, 0.91) in the testing cohort. The sum of sensitivity (0.88) and specificity (0.76) was maximized at a cut-point of 17 (95% CI: 15, 18) on a 0-100 scale where the AUROC was 0.82. DISCUSSION:We developed a short general-purpose questionnaire that predicts the probability of an adult having moderate-to-severe chronic pain in 7-to-10 years. It has diagnostic ability greater than 80% and can be used regardless of whether a patient is currently experiencing chronic pain. Knowing which patients are likely to have moderate-to-severe chronic pain in the future allows clinicians to target preventive treatment.

SUBMITTER: Brown TT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7440636 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

The FUTUREPAIN study: Validating a questionnaire to predict the probability of having chronic pain 7-10 years into the future.

Brown Timothy T TT Lee Woojung W

PloS one 20200820 8

<h4>Objectives</h4>The FUTUREPAIN study develops a short general-purpose questionnaire, based on the biopsychosocial model, to predict the probability of developing or maintaining moderate-to-severe chronic pain 7-10 years into the future.<h4>Methods</h4>This is a retrospective cohort study. Two-thirds of participants in the National Survey of Midlife Development in the United States were randomly assigned to a training cohort used to train a predictive machine learning model based on the least ...[more]

PMID: 32817710

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundPrevious studies of prognosis for women with Fibromyalgia (FM) or chronic widespread pain (CWP) show contradictory results. However, some women appear to improve in pain and other core symptoms over time. There is limited knowledge about predictors of substantial improvement in pain intensity over a longer period of time. The primary objective of this study was to investigate the natural course of pain intensity and distribution of pain over 10 to 12 years in a cohort of 166 women with FM or CWP. Secondarily we wanted to investigate predictors of substantial improvement (≥50%) in pain intensity after 10 to 12 years.MethodsThe study is a longitudinal prospective cohort study. 166 women with FM or CWP were followed up after 10 to 12 years. 126 women (76%) participated in the follow-up and completed a battery of questionnaires concerning pain intensity, pain distribution and other physical and mental aspects of health. Differences in symptoms within the cohort over 10 to 12 years and predictors of substantial improvement (≥50%) in pain intensity were calculated.ResultsPain had improved at the 10 to 12 year follow-up (p < 0.001) with a mean change of - 9.2 mm (SD 23.3, 95% CI: - 13.3; - 5.0) for pain intensity and - 2.0 sites (SD 4.2, 95% CI: - 2.7; - 1.2) for pain distribution. Nine percent of the 126 women showed an individual moderate improvement in pain intensity while 16% showed a substantial improvement at the follow-up as compared to baseline. Lower symptoms of stress and higher pain intensity at baseline predicted higher probability of reporting at least 50% less pain intensity after 10 to 12 years as compared to baseline.ConclusionsA majority of women with FM and CWP appear to have a positive course of pain over time, which should be communicated to these patients in health care. Reducing stress levels might contribute to better chances of improvement over time.Trial registrationClinicaltrials.gov NCT02872129, registered 06/30/2016.

Project description:IntroductionThe pharmacological management of chronic low back pain (LBP) is complex. The World Health Organisation recommends a laddered approach to pain medication usage. The PainDETECT questionnaire distinguishes between neuropathic pain (NeP), nociceptive pain (NoP), and ambiguous pain. By elucidating the difference in medication efficacy between these groups, clinicians can provide a tailored treatment plan to manage patient's pain. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between pharmacological treatments, pain categorizations, and medication efficacy as reported by patients.MethodsA secondary retrospective analysis of a prospectively collected database was conducted involving 318 consecutively recruited patients, aged 18 years and above, who completed PainDETECT, medication history and patient reported medication efficacy questionnaires. Medication history was categorized into four lines of treatment: first line (paracetamol ± non-prescribed anti-inflammatories), second line (prescribed anti-inflammatories), third line (anticonvulsants/neuromodulators) and fourth line (opioids). Medication efficacy was measured using a three-point Likert scale: effective (+2), somewhat effective (+1), no effect (0).FindingsThe study included 120, 50, 54 and 94 patients on first line, second line, third line and fourth line treatment, respectively. The NeP group had higher mean numerical rating scale (NRS) compared to NoP group in all four lines of treatment (8.10 ± 1.59 vs. 5.47± 2.27, p < 0.001, 8.64± 1.43 vs. 5.52± 1.86, p < 0.001, 8.00± 1.07 vs. 6.37± 2.39, p < 0.01, and 8.05± 1.73 vs. 7.2± 1.29, p < 0.05). When confounding for severity of LBP as measured by NRS, the distribution of medication efficacy significantly differed amongst the NeP, ambiguous and NoP groups in patients undergoing fourth line pharmacological treatment (r2 = 8.623, p < 0.05). The NoP group exhibited significantly higher medication efficacy compared to the NeP group (U = 14.038, p < 0.05). There was no significant difference in medication efficacy across the pain classifications for first, second- and third-line treatment.InterpretationOpioids was the only line of treatment more effective in targeting NoP, as determined by the PainDETECT questionnaire, compared to NeP. This pioneering study illustrates the complex nature of pharmacological management for chronic LBP. It underscores the importance of tailoring pharmacological treatment plans to fit individual pain profiles and expectations instead of adopting a blanket approach to pain management.

Project description:Measures of intrinsic brain function at rest show promise as predictors of cognitive decline in humans, including EEG metrics such as individual alpha peak frequency (IAPF) and the aperiodic exponent, reflecting the strongest frequency of alpha oscillations and the relative balance of excitatory:inhibitory neural activity, respectively. Both IAPF and the aperiodic exponent decrease with age and have been associated with worse executive function and working memory. However, few studies have jointly examined their associations with cognitive function, and none have examined their association with longitudinal cognitive decline rather than cross-sectional impairment. In a preregistered secondary analysis of data from the longitudinal Midlife in the United States (MIDUS) study, we tested whether IAPF and aperiodic exponent measured at rest predict cognitive function ( N = 234; age at EEG recording M = 54.86, SD = 10.76) over 10 years. The IAPF and the aperiodic exponent interacted to predict decline in overall cognitive ability, even after controlling for age, sex, education, and lag between data collection timepoints. Post-hoc tests showed that "mismatched" IAPF and aperiodic exponents (e.g., higher exponent with lower IAPF) predicted greater cognitive decline compared to "matching" IAPF and aperiodic exponents (e.g., higher exponent with higher IAPF; lower IAPF with lower aperiodic exponent). These effects were largely driven by measures of executive function. Our findings provide the first evidence that IAPF and the aperiodic exponent are joint predictors of cognitive decline from midlife into old age and thus may offer a useful clinical tool for predicting cognitive risk in aging.Significance statementMeasures of intrinsic brain function at rest assessed noninvasively from the scalp using electroencephalography (EEG) show promise as predictors of cognitive decline in humans. Using data from 234 participants from the Midlife in the United States (MIDUS) longitudinal study, we found two resting EEG markers (individual peak alpha frequency and aperiodic exponent) interacted to predict cognitive decline over a span of 10 years. Follow-up analyses revealed that "mismatched" markers (i.e., high in one and low in the other) predicted greater cognitive decline compared to "matching" markers. Because of the low cost and ease of collecting EEG data at rest, the current research provides evidence for possible scalable clinical applications for identifying individuals at risk for accelerated cognitive decline.

Dataset Information

The FUTUREPAIN study: Validating a questionnaire to predict the probability of having chronic pain 7-10 years into the future.

Publications

The FUTUREPAIN study: Validating a questionnaire to predict the probability of having chronic pain 7-10 years into the future.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets