Dataset Information

[Bed capacity management in times of the COVID-19 pandemic : A simulation-based prognosis of normal and intensive care beds using the descriptive data of the University Hospital Augsburg].

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Following the regional outbreak in China, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread all over the world, presenting the healthcare systems with huge challenges worldwide. In Germany the coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in a slowly growing demand for health care with a sudden occurrence of regional hotspots. This leads to an unpredictable situation for many hospitals, leaving the question of how many bed resources are needed to cope with the surge of COVID-19 patients. OBJECTIVE:In this study we created a simulation-based prognostic tool that provides the management of the University Hospital of Augsburg and the civil protection services with the necessary information to plan and guide the disaster response to the ongoing pandemic. Especially the number of beds needed on isolation wards and intensive care units (ICU) are the biggest concerns. The focus should lie not only on the confirmed cases as the patients with suspected COVID-19 are in need of the same resources. MATERIAL AND METHODS:For the input we used the latest information provided by governmental institutions about the spreading of the disease, with a special focus on the growth rate of the cumulative number of cases. Due to the dynamics of the current situation, these data can be highly variable. To minimize the influence of this variance, we designed distribution functions for the parameters growth rate, length of stay in hospital and the proportion of infected people who need to be hospitalized in our area of responsibility. Using this input, we started a Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 runs to predict the range of the number of hospital beds needed within the coming days and compared it with the available resources. RESULTS:Since 2 February 2020 a total of 306 patients were treated with suspected or confirmed COVID-19?at this university hospital. Of these 84 needed treatment on the ICU. With the help of several simulation-based forecasts, the required ICU and normal bed capacity at Augsburg University Hospital and the Augsburg ambulance service in the period from 28 March 2020 to 8 June 2020 could be predicted with a high degree of reliability. Simulations that were run before the impact of the restrictions in daily life showed that we would have run out of ICU bed capacity within approximately 1 month. CONCLUSION:Our simulation-based prognosis of the health care capacities needed helps the management of the hospital and the civil protection service to make reasonable decisions and adapt the disaster response to the realistic needs. At the same time the forecasts create the possibility to plan the strategic response days and weeks in advance. The tool presented in this study is, as far as we know, the only one accounting not only for confirmed COVID-19 cases but also for suspected COVID-19 patients. Additionally, the few input parameters used are easy to access and can be easily adapted to other healthcare systems.

SUBMITTER: Rommele C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7441598 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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[Bed capacity management in times of the COVID-19 pandemic : A simulation-based prognosis of normal and intensive care beds using the descriptive data of the University Hospital Augsburg].

Römmele C C Neidel T T Heins J J Heider S S Otten V V Ebigbo A A Weber T T Müller M M Spring O O Braun G G Wittmann M M Schoenfelder J J Heller A R AR Messmann H H Brunner J O JO

Der Anaesthesist 20200821 10

<h4>Background</h4>Following the regional outbreak in China, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread all over the world, presenting the healthcare systems with huge challenges worldwide. In Germany the coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in a slowly growing demand for health care with a sudden occurrence of regional hotspots. This leads to an unpredictable situation for many hospitals, leaving the question of how many bed resources are neede ...[more]

PMID: 32821955

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Project description:BackgroundThis paper describes a model for estimating COVID-19 related excess deaths that are a direct consequence of insufficient hospital ward bed and intensive care unit (ICU) capacity.MethodsCompartmental models were used to estimate deaths under different combinations of ICU and ward care required and received in England up to late April 2021. Model parameters were sourced from publicly available government information and organisations collating COVID-19 data. A sub-model was used to estimate the mortality scalars that represent increased mortality due to insufficient ICU or general ward bed capacity. Three illustrative scenarios for admissions numbers, 'Optimistic', 'Middling' and 'Pessimistic', were modelled and compared with the subsequent observations to the 3rd February.ResultsThe key output was the demand and capacity model described. There were no excess deaths from a lack of capacity in the 'Optimistic' scenario. Several of the 'Middling' scenario applications resulted in excess deaths-up to 597 deaths (0.6% increase) with a 20% reduction compared to best estimate ICU capacity. All the 'Pessimistic' scenario applications resulted in excess deaths, ranging from 49,178 (17.0% increase) for a 20% increase in ward bed availability, to 103,735 (35.8% increase) for a 20% shortfall in ward bed availability. These scenarios took no account of the emergence of the new, more transmissible, variant of concern (b.1.1.7).ConclusionsMortality is increased when hospital demand exceeds available capacity. No excess deaths from breaching capacity would be expected under the 'Optimistic' scenario. The 'Middling' scenario could result in some excess deaths-up to a 0.7% increase relative to the total number of deaths. The 'Pessimistic' scenario would have resulted in significant excess deaths. Our sensitivity analysis indicated a range between 49,178 (17% increase) and 103,735 (35.8% increase). Given the new variant, the pessimistic scenario appeared increasingly likely and could have resulted in a substantial increase in the number of COVID-19 deaths. In the event, it would appear that capacity was not breached at any stage at a national level with no excess deaths. it will remain unclear if minor local capacity breaches resulted in any small number of excess deaths.

Project description:The wait times for patients from their appointments to receiving magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are usually long. To reduce this wait time, the present study proposed that service time wastage could be reduced by adjusting MRI examination scheduling by prioritizing patients who require examinations involving the same type of coil. This approach can reduce patient wait times and thereby maximize MRI departments' service times. To simulate an MRI department's action workflow, 2,447 MRI examination logs containing the deidentified information of patients and radiation technologists from the MRI department of a medical center were used, and a hybrid simulation model that combined discrete-event and agent-based simulations was developed. The experiment was conducted in two stages. In the first stage, the service time was increased by adjusting the examination schedule and thereby reducing the number of coil changes. In the second stage, the maximum number of additional patients that could be examined daily was determined. The average number of coil changes per day for the four MRI scanners of the aforementioned medical center was reduced by approximately 27. Thus, the MRI department gained 97.17 min/d, which enabled them to examine three additional patients per month. Consequently, the net monthly income of the hospital increased from US$17,067 to US$30,196, and the patient wait times for MRI examinations requiring the use of flexible torso and head, shoulder, 8-inch head, and torso MRI coils were shortened by 6 d and 23 h, 2 d and 15 h, 2 d and 9 h, and 16 h, respectively. Adjusting MRI examination scheduling by prioritizing patients that require the use of the same coil could reduce the coil-setting time, increase the daily number of patients who are examined, increase the net income of the MRI department, and shorten patient wait times for MRI examinations. Minimizing the operating times of specific examinations to maximize the number of services provided per day does not require additional personnel or resources. The results of the experimental simulations can be used as a reference by radiology department managers designing scheduling rules for examination appointments.

Dataset Information

[Bed capacity management in times of the COVID-19 pandemic : A simulation-based prognosis of normal and intensive care beds using the descriptive data of the University Hospital Augsburg].

Publications

[Bed capacity management in times of the COVID-19 pandemic : A simulation-based prognosis of normal and intensive care beds using the descriptive data of the University Hospital Augsburg].

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